The Gas Pump v. The Homebuyer
Who woulda thunk it: The gas pump holding sway over a home purchase. Though not yet a reality, Portland-based economist Joe Cortright predicts that the price of gas may soon edge out other considerations for those looking to purchase a home, according to the Seattle Times.
Cortright theorizes that “the new calculus of higher gas prices may have permanently reshaped urban housing markets. … What this really means is that as people move, they’re going to look for places that enable them to drive shorter distances and avoid places where they have to drive a lot.” Moreover, he suggests that this shift to urban centers will drive down the prices of suburban homes and continue to bump the prices in-city. In other words: More of the same.
Now for the omissions.
1) House hunting. See Ryan’s calculations re: how much gas money it takes to find a dream home. In short, lots.
2) Suburban walkability — and workability. As Katrina pointed out last week, the ‘burbs can function as urban centers, with amenities like schools, libraries, and grocery stores within walking distance of homes. What’s more, with work returning to the home via the miracle of the microchip, lots of suburbanites really can keep it local. Admission: I’m one for urban density; sprawl makes me itch. Plus, I’m still unconvinced that these suburb-dwellers stay neatly packed in their Seattle-hugging mini-cities, thereby rendering the gas price vs. home location moot. Nevertheless, there exists the potential for the suburbs to be self-sufficient.
3) Economic strata. Certainly, the suburbs aren’t simply for the well-to-do. What if I live in the suburbs because I can’t afford to live in the city? And what if the price of gas is making it impossible for me to drive to my Seattle job, which I have simply because I can’t find work outside the urban core? Sure, there are buses. But some of those buses stop running after 8 p.m., and some eat up several hours per day in commute time. So, while the value of my suburban home erodes and the price of petrol climbs, I’m steadily losing ground. What’s the answer? Is it back to urban density? Is “in-city affordable housing” an oxymoron?
Of course, it is worth noting that the Times piece credits a handful of suburb standbys who report that they won’t move to the city come Hell or high water (or, at least, $10/gallon gasoline). Suburban Harry Trumans aside, however, we may be looking down the barrel of a passel of population shifts.
Bob Dylan may have said it best: The times, they are a-changin’. (Though not as quickly as the price of gas.)
