Archive for March, 2009
March 31, 2009
[Special Announcement]
On Monday April 27th at 1:00pm, Robert Shiller (the Shiller in Case-Shiller) will be giving a lecture at Seattle Pacific University. The event is free and open to the public.
More information on the SPU website.
It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – January data is released in March).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of January:
January 2009
Month to Month: Down 3.6%
Year to Year: Down 15.0%
Change from Peak: Down 19.7% in 18 months
The following chart shows the Seattle HPI scaled such that the July 2007 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Seattle HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (September 2005).
According to the Case-Shiller index, as of January home prices in Seattle have “rewound” three and a half years.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Seattle’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Price drops off the peak here in Seattle continue to turn in numbers lower than everywhere other than Los Angeles (in Redfin’s 7-city sample). For some perspective, home prices in Seattle have fallen more in 18 months than they have in 40 months in Boston.
*[Case-Shiller defines Seattle as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.]
March 27, 2009
410 W Crockett St Seattle, WA 98119
3BR/1.75BA
$699,950, reduced from $749,500.
Beautiful Queen Anne Craftsman
Open Sunday, March 29, from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.
21005 NE 36th St Sammamish, WA 98074
3BR/3BA
$575,500
Spacious Sammamish Craftsman
Open Sunday, March 29, from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.
916 NW 83rd St Seattle, WA 98117
3BR/1.75BA
$509,000
Charming Loyal Heights home
Open this Sunday, March 29, from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.
March 25, 2009
Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.
The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.
For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.
First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:
Of the 131 cities/towns we ranked in the Seattle area this month, 94 (72%) had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. Such a large percentage would seem to indicate that most sellers around Seattle are still having trouble correctly gauging the market price of their home before putting it on the market.
Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten the Seattle area neighborhoods for price reductions:
Of the 100 neighborhoods we ranked in the Seattle area this month, 46 (46%) had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. Three different Tacoma neighborhoods popped up in the top ten again, along with repeat appearances from Sammamish, Hillsdale, and Education Hill.
We’re still seeing a degree of consistency in which neighborhoods and cities have the most price reductions. Are sellers in these locations just not very good at finding the right market price in the first place, or are they so anxious to sell that they drop the price early and often? Either way, the regions with the really high percentage of reduced-price homes are probably a good place to go bargain-hunting.
March 20, 2009
Montlake Craftsman
1824 24th Ave. East is priced at $799,950, open this Sunday, March 22nd, from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.
Brand new Columbia City Townhouse
3903 S Ferdinand St Unit A is priced at $489,000, open this Sunday, March 22nd, from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.
Future Development Potential
11455 Occidental Ave S is priced at $489,000, open this Sunday, March 22nd, from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.
March 18, 2009
I’ve been doing some research on Seattle real estate blogs and thought I’d compile a list of my favorites:
Top Real Estate News Blogs
Top Regional/Neighborhood Blogs
As a newbie in Seattle, it’s been fun to explore the neighborhood blogs written by local residents who create a great sense of community on the web.
Top Agent Blogs
What have I missed? What blogs do you all follow to stay on top of the Seattle real estate market?
March 17, 2009
Let’s have an update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discount off the asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in the Seattle area (King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties) and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.
Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:
The overall discount for the Seattle area bumped up slightly from last month’s 4.2% up to 4.4%.
Here’s a map of the top ten discounted zip codes, courtesy of USNaviguide.com:
As you can see, the most discounted neighborhoods are spread fairly evenly around King County, with a couple popping up in Pierce and none in Snohomish.
Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:
Of the 3,136 sales we tracked in the 2-month period, just 28 homes sold for more than 20% off the asking price, while 409 homes sold for more than asking.
As a whole, the Seattle area is trending toward slightly larger discounts. As we continue to watch this data we will be able to get a better picture of what sale-to-list discounts tell us about the overall health of the local real estate market. Once we get enough data points, we’ll be able to plot the overall discount trend on a line chart for an interesting picture of the market.
March 13, 2009
Open Saturday, March 14 from 10a.m. – 1p.m.
1) Kenmore
17813 80th Ave Unit D7 Kenmore, WA 98028 $319,500
Open Saturday, March 14 from 12p.m. – 4p.m.
2) Maple Leaf
1018 NE 97th St Seattle, WA 98115 $499,950
Open Sunday, March 15 from 1p.m. – 4p.m.
3) Montlake
1824 24th Ave. East Seattle, WA 98112 $799,950
March 12, 2009
The other day I got an interesting email from Mortgage Data Web with the top mortgage lenders in Seattle for January of this year. I broke out the purchases from the re-fi’s to give you a sense of who the top players are.
Top Seattle mortgage lenders for purchases*:
|
Lender |
Purchases |
| 1. |
Wells Fargo |
75 |
| 2. |
Boeing Employee Credit Union |
37 |
| 3. |
Bank of America |
21 |
| 4. |
Countrywide |
20 |
| 5. |
JP Morgan Chase |
16 |
And if you’re looking for a re-fi here are the busiest ones:
|
Lender |
Re-fi’s |
| 1. |
Wells Fargo |
506 |
| 2. |
Boeing Employee Credit Union |
496 |
| 3. |
Countrywide |
356 |
| 4. |
Provide NT Funding Associates |
233 |
| 5. |
Cobalt Mortgage |
200 |
*Note the don’t have the breakout data for MetLife. Who overall is the fourth largest lender.
It’s interesting to note the huge re-fi boom, the unpopularity of ARMs and what seems to be a relatively high number of construction loans all things considered.
March 11, 2009
Beginning with February, Redfin is publishing monthly Seattle Area real estate stats, summarizing what we’re up to in the market, and how the market is changing. This is our first crack at it, which means we’ll only present a few numbers for February.
Market Activity
- 11,443 new Northwest MLS listings (the current total is 55,658).
- 10,767 price reductions.
- 101,444 homes were added to Seattle Redfin users’ favorites list.
Brokerage Activity
- 692 homes were toured by our clients through Redfin field agents.
- 28 people attended our monthly home buying class.
- 73 clients made offers.
- 27 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction surveys and posted an online review.
- 100% of our February Seattle Area clients would recommend Redfin to a friend.
What else do you want to know? Your comments and suggestions are at the core of our goal to better serve our customers. We’d love to hear from you. If you haven’t already, join the Seattle Redfin forum and sign up for listing alerts and our monthly newsletter. As always, thanks for using Redfin!
March 6, 2009
Open House Date & Time:
Sunday, March 8, 1-4pm
17813 80th Ave Unit D7 Kenmore, WA 98028
Seller Comments
Coffee Shop of Choice:
We are walking distance of a Starbucks.
Favorite Restaurant in the Area:
Tai Ho Chinese, Crystal Creek Cafe, Bonefish Grill and Outback Steakhouse.
Favorite place(s) to go:
Burke-Gilman Trail and several waterfront parks, Third Place Books and Great Harvest Bread Company.
Best Features of the Home:
Quiet neighborhood with very friendly neighbors. Beautiful interior with energy efficient radiant heat, gas water heater as well as gas oven/stove. Well kept exterior grounds and wonderful location to the bus lines into Seattle and the U. Village.
Favorite Room:
The main living floor encompasses the dining room, living room and kitchen. A wonderful set up for entertaining, you are never away from your company when in the kitchen.
Has there been any remodeling since you purchased the home?:
No, the home is only 4 years old and it was well thought out at the time of construction.
What’s in the neighborhood?:
Located within two miles of the home you will find several grocery stores, many diverse restaurants that include Thai, Mexican, Chinese, Teriyaki, Italian, and not to be forgotten pizza and fastfood. Specialty shops for sports enthusiasts ranging from Scuba instruction to Paint Ball. Lots of local charm as well, the Bowling alley is open late for the night owls, and the local diner is open early for those who like to watch the sunrise.
Most romantic spot in the home or neighborhood:
The Burke-Gilman trail runs into several small parks located along the waterfront that provide stunning views of the boats on the water at sunset. Also, the Preservation Kitchen restaurant will provide a very romantic evening filled with amazing food from the local fruit market and some of the freshest ingredients around.
What you will miss most:
The location is going to be greatly missed. As well as our favorite “best kept secret” the Yakima Fruit Market, the wonderful assortment of organic and locally grown fruits and vegetables at unbelievable prices will be sorely missed.
