Archive for June, 2009
June 30, 2009
It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, plus seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – April data is released in June).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of April:
April 2009
Month to Month: Up 0.2%
Year to Year: Down 16.8%
Change from Peak: Down 22.3% in 21 months
The following chart shows the Seattle HPI scaled such that the July 2007 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Seattle HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (May 2005).
We pointed out last month that 2008’s April bump might be repeated again this year, and what do you know—it was. Nothing too surprising or noteworthy here. If prices keep rising through the spring and into the summer, then maybe we’ll have the beginnings of a bottom.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare the Seattle area’s performance to other areas across the country:
To recap, we have seen the following interventions in recent months meant to boost the housing market:
- $8k first-time buyer tax credit
- 4.5% – 5% mortgage rates
- various moratoriums on foreclosures
- numerous federal programs encouraging loan workouts
The apparent result of this host of actions has been a flattening to very slight upticks seen in the chart above, in a month that is historically one of the strongest of the year for the real estate market. I guess you can color me underwhelmed.
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
So far, we have yet to see any convincing evidence that Seattle’s home price drops are nearing an end. Of course, we’ll keep watching this and other metrics to keep you informed about the first signs of a bottom.
*[Case-Shiller defines Seattle as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.]
June 29, 2009
Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.
The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.
For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.
First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:
Of the 134 cities/towns we ranked in the greater Seattle area this month, 81 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more.
Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten greater Seattle area neighborhoods for price reductions:
Of the 104 neighborhoods we ranked in the greater Seattle area this month, 45 had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. On average, the neighborhoods with more price reductions had noticably higher median closed prices than those with fewer price reductions.
The general price reduction trend in the greater Seattle area looks to be generally holding steady, however every city and neighborhood is of course different. Some may be getting softer while others get tighter. Download the full spreadsheet to check where your neighborhood came in.
June 26, 2009
Open House Date & Time:
Sunday June 28, 12 – 4pm
326 Queen Anne Ave N #305 Seattle, WA 98109
Priced at $424,500
2 BR/2 BA
Listing agent: Trevor Smith
Seller Comments
Coffee Shop of Choice:
Uptown espresso and Café Zingaro next to the PNW Ballet
Favorite restaurants in the area:
Signature Vietnamese Cuisine, Phuket, Rotti Indian, Chutneys Indian, Athena Grill, Daniel’s Broiler on South Lake Union.
Favorite Places to Go
Downtown/Belltown, Seattle Center, Myrtle Edwards park on Elliott Bay, the Sculpture Park and Highland Park just minutes away on the top of Queen Anne Hill with the best view of Seattle. A 7 minute drive to the Fremont and Ballard Farmer’s Markets!
Favorite Room in the House
Living & dining room, overlooking the Space Needle and the Seattle Center.
Best features of the home:
Modern appliances, hardwood flours, open space in the living room with tons of sunlight throughout the day, windows facing 3 directions (south, north and east), large deck with the unobstructed view of the Space Needle, windows from the living area and second bedroom face open territory (other condos are not too close), secure and convenient parking, safe, secure and quiet neighbors.
Any remodeling since you purchased the home?
Yes, in 2005 as we purchased our unit, the entire building’s stucco exterior was resurfaced.
Most Romantic Spot in the Home:
Night time views of the Space Needle, Sunsets at Myrtle Edwards Park and the coziness of the fireplace.
What’s in the Neighborhood?
Just moments away from great restaurants, downtown shopping, the Seattle Waterfront, the Uptown Cinema and one block away from the Seattle Center, Intiman and REP Theaters, Children’s Museum, Pacific Science Center, Pacific Northwest Ballet and just short drive to the QA Community Center and Pool with large outside kids playing area. The condo is very conveniently located to several grocery stores, pharmacies, local restaurants, South Lake Union, 99 and I-5.
What you will miss most:
Watching the 4th of July fireworks from our huge deck, romantic walks and evening sunsets at the Sculpture Park, Myrtle Edwards park, listening to Beethoven at the Seattle Center Fountain.
June 26, 2009
This weekend, agents around the state have banded together to host thousands of open houses. The MLS numbers don’t lie: Redfin data man Arthur Patterson queried the Northwest MLS and found that the number of Seattle-area open houses jumped from 1,001 last weekend to 1,930 this weekend — nearly a 50% increase!
This is great news if you’re looking to buy because you’ll have the chance to see even more homes. Here are some tips on what to look for as you’re out and about.
Here at Redfin, our agents are hosting 11 open houses all over the city this weekend.
Redfin Open Houses on Saturday, June 27th
 |
1622 34th Ave
Open 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Madrona
$895,000
3 BR/2.5 BA |
 |
831 NE 86th St
Open 12:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Maple Leaf
$550,000
3 BR/2.75 BA |
Redfin Open Houses on Sunday, June 28th
|
1622 34th Ave
Open 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Madrona
$895,000
3 BR/2.5 BA |
 |
831 NE 86th St
Open 12:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Maple Leaf
$550,000
3 BR/2.75 BA |
June 26, 2009
Open House Date & Time:
Sunday June 28, 1 – 4pm
15038 SE 65 St Bellevue, WA 98006
Priced at $650,000
3 BR/2.5 BA
Listing agent: Trevor Smith
Seller Comments
Coffee Shop of Choice:
Starbucks at Lakemont.
Favorite restaurants in the area:
- Tapitio at Newcastle – great service, good Mexican food that doesn’t feel like a chain.
- Calcutta Grill – amazing views of Seattle and Bellevue.
Favorite Places to Go
Lewis Creek Park: a great place for the kids with the sports fields, basketball court, sledding hill and fantastic walking paths.
Favorite Room in the House
Media room. We can watch movies at home, as a family; the kids love the 120 inch screen for video games, and surfing the internet on the big screen is fun.
Best features of the home:
It feels like home. You walk in the front door and you want to never leave. It’s comfortable, not sterile.
Any remodeling since you purchased the home?
We’ve added air conditioning, a new roof, granite countertops in the kitchen, travertine in the master bath, sprinkler system in the front lawn. The house is very clean and very well maintained.
Most Romantic Spot in the Home:
Laying in bed on a winter morning this past winter, after a night of snowfall, looking out towards the Newcastle Golf Course.
What’s in the Neighborhood?
Great schools! Cougar Ridge Elementary parents are very involved in the school and have made it a great asset to the neighborhood. Great Parks! Lewis Creek, Coal Creek Park, Cougar Mountain are all close by. The golf course at Newcastle is just minutes away.
What you will miss most:
Our kids will miss the great friends they’ve made in the neighborhood and playing Halo on the big screen. We will miss the kitchen and the backyard in the summer.
June 26, 2009
Open House Date & Time:
Sunday June 28, 12 – 4pm
2912 Warren Ave N Seattle, WA 98109
Priced at $599,000
4 BR/1.75 BA
Listing agent: Trevor Smith
Seller Comments
Coffee Shop of Choice:
- At home with a mocha on our deck
- Cafe Ladro on Queen Anne
Favorite restaurants in the area:
- Via Tribunali on the top of QA is a great place for pizza
- Betty on QA is great on a cold winter night
- And of course for brunch it’s hard to beat Five Spot
- For Mexican it’s El Camino in Fremont, hands down
- And if we need a quick night out, Nickerson Saloon at the bottom of Queen Anne is our go-to spot
Favorite Places to Go
- Rogers Park on Queen Anne
- Shopping in Fremont
- Running on the Burke-Gillman trail to UW
Favorite Room in the House
The media room is the perfect place to watch a movie or the big game.
Best features of the home:
- Three levels of outdoor patios really extend our living space
- Walk-in closet in the master bedroom is unique in such an old house
- Rain shower in the 2nd bathroom is great after a hard day in the yard
- Original fixtures and features give the home a true period feel and mix well with our modern style
Any remodeling since you purchased the home?
- Literally every room has been remodeled since we bought it!
- We finished the basement to increase our living space and added the rooftop deck this year
- New bathrooms, bedrooms, kitchen, and landscaping
- We just put in a new roof and furnace this spring
Most Romantic Spot in the Home:
Having a glass of wine with just the two of us up on the rooftop deck, or dining by candlelight with a fire in the fireplace are two of our favorite spots.
What’s in the Neighborhood?
- It’s great being so close to both Fremont and Queen Anne shops and restaurants—you’re minutes away from ice cream or a supermarket
- Great walking trails along the Canal (Ponti has a great deck right on the water)
- Great schools–Seattle Country Day School, Seattle Pacific University, and St. Anne grade and middle school are all within walking distance
What you will miss most:
Our neighbors are the best, we love how quiet our street is and the location of our house.
June 16, 2009
Let’s check in on our stats once again and find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the charts below, we have taken all sales data from last month in the Seattle area (King/Pierce/Snohomish) and sorted it by city/town. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any areas with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:
The overall discount rate for the Seattle area bumped up a bit in June from our previous update in April, rising to 3.7% from 4.1%. The Eastside dominated the top ten.
Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:
Of the 47 areas we ranked, only Covington came in with an average sale price above the average list price.
Here’s an added bonus. The following chart shows the top ten areas with the largest overall discount from the original list price, instead of the final list price:
Wow. Apparently sellers in Mercer Island are a little bit too optimistic when originally pricing their homes. It’s also interesting that the area-wide discount rate more than doubled up to 10%. On the other hand, we could say that this means Seattle-area sellers generally hit the value of their home within about 90% on the first try.
Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and hit the “FullSummary” sheet.
Of the 2,750 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 193 homes (7%) sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 71 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.
June 9, 2009
Redfin has four of the top five buyer’s agents in King County. Redfin agents Trevor Smith, Allie Howard and Rachelle King are the top three agents and Febe Cude ranks fifth among agents who represented home-buyers in King County for May.
| Rank |
Agent |
# of Deals |
Total Sales |
| 1 |
Trevor Smith |
10 |
$4,522,485 |
| 2 |
Allie Howard |
7 |
$4,337,900 |
| 3 |
Rachelle King* |
6 |
$3,215,500 |
| 5 |
Febe Cude |
5 |
$1,949,500 |
| 38 |
Loren Ellingson |
3 |
$981,950 |
| 142 |
Cheryl McLaine |
2 |
$694,500 |
*Rachelle recently left Redfin to go back to school. We already miss her and we wish her all the best!
We pulled from these numbers from the NWMLS, the database for real estate transactions and listings for western Washington, then ranked the buyers agents who closed at lease one deal in May based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.
Cheryl McLaine also closed two deals in Snohomish County totaling $1,013,000 as well as a $349,950 new construction in Seattle that wasn’t listed in the NWMLS.
Redfin agents are experts on what’s going on in the Seattle real estate market right now because they’re actively working with clients and closing deals.
Our Clients Love Our Fanatical Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in May from our Seattle-area clients:
- 45 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, up from 41 in April.
- All 45 of those clients, or 100%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, up from 95% in April.
In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.
More People Are Out Touring Homes And Making Offers
In May, our Seattle clients were busy seeing homes and making offers:
We also had 53 people come to our home-buying class at our Seattle HQ to learn about the home-buying process and to meet our agents. Check out the slide deck from that class.
It’s Taking 36 Days To Close On A Home
In May, the time it took for our Seattle clients to close on their homes held steady from April:
- For our clients who bought re-sales, the average time from the initial agreement on terms until the close of the deal was 36 days, the same as in April.
- 1 of our clients failed to get financing, up from 0 in April.
- 2 deals failed the home inspection, up from 1 in April.
- Of our closed deals, the average discount off list price for homes sold was 3.28%, down from 3.41% in April.
Look For Our June Report
We’ll be back next month with our analysis of the June numbers. Let us know what you’d like to see in that report.
