“Everything Changed in the Past Six Weeks”

Bryon Ziegler, part of Redfin’s crack Capitol Hill team, just wandered into my office to talk about bidding wars. The last ten straight offers he has handled all turned into bidding wars. This isn’t just the usual $300,000 bank-owned property being auction-priced for a quick sale.

Except for maybe Belltown condos — which are like a vast, derelict Atlantis, all underwater — every decent listing seems to be getting multiple offers. Bryon just put in a multi-million dollar all-cash offer on a home that had been on the market for 300+ days, only to have two other offers turn up at the same time.

“Everything changed just in the past six weeks,” Bryon said. “In February, you were the savior if you came in with an offer. Now, the reaction is: take a number. And if you don’t come with all guns blazing, you’re usually a day late and a dollar short.”

And yes, we know that we just posted a long analysis on how Case Shiller numbers for the whole Seattle area took another hit. But that’s a three-month moving average for December, January and February. We’re talking about deals that aren’t going to hit the public records for another eight weeks; Case Shiller won’t account for these sales until September 27.

And Case Shiller numbers cover the whole Seattle-Tacoma-Everett area, from Pierce County up to Snohomish County. In Capitol Hill and other hot neighborhoods around Seattle, there’s a real inventory crunch.

Redfin’s Bellevue team lead, Loren Ellingson, sees the same trend on the Eastside. “I’ve been coming up against a lot of multiple offers, especially on bank-owned properties over the past three months,” Loren said. “A lot of buyers decide an offer isn’t even worth the trouble when the listing agent comes back with 5+ offers already in the bag, all over the asking price. My last three listings have all had multiple offers, too.”

It’s a weird world where prices are falling, and homes are getting bid up, where traffic on our website is high, but sales volume is limited by inventory. But that’s what Redfin is seeing.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Hit Another New Post-Peak Low

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – February data is released in April).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of February:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between January and February (the same as December to January). Detroit of all places was the only city that saw a month-to-month gain (up 1.0%).

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Seattle’s price tiers took a hit in February, but the middle tier took the biggest hit. Month to month, the low tier was down 1.6%, the middle tier fell 3.1%, and the high tier decreased 1.5%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Six Redfin Agents in the Top Ten in King County

Still Searching for Spring in Seattle’s Housing Market (March Insider)

Redfin’s monthly Seattle real estate insider report draws from our proprietary database of information on homes for sale and that just sold, along with insight from our agents to get a sense of what’s going on in the market right now. If you’d like to receive the report via email, just sign up.

Greetings Redfinnians,

Spring has officially sprung. Spring–when flowers bloom, birds chirp, the sun makes an occasional appearance through brief windows in Seattle’s perpetually grey winter sky, and the real estate market begins to pick up steam.

Let’s see how spring 2011 is shaping up:

• Flowers: check
• Birds: check
• Sunbreaks: check
• Real Estate: um…

As it turns out, the usual spring uptick in new listings and sales still isn’t materializing so far in 2011. What’s the deal? Where are the sellers? Where are the buyers? Read on as we dig into March’s data and share on-the-ground intelligence from our agents in the field in search of the answers.

Sellers Still in Hibernation

Usually spring is when sellers come out of hibernation, freshening up their homes and putting them on the market in anticipation of a fresh crop of buyers. This year things are shaping up a bit…differently.

Change in # of King County Houses for Sale on March 31st 2011, By City

Our customers are feeling the pain of languishing inventory. “Inventory is a little bit stale,” laments West Seattle Redfin Agent Klaus Gosma. “People are definitely thirsty for some ‘new blood.’”

Redfin Ballard Agent Bryan Haynes agrees. “In Ballard we’re seeing two kinds of listings–stale, overpriced homes that end up sitting on the market and well-kept, well-priced homes that quickly attract buyers’ attention.” Sadly, there just aren’t as many of the second kind as buyers would like.

Buyers Hunting With Rare Success

What about sales? Are home shoppers moving out of winter mode and heating up the spring buying season?

Change in # of King County Houses That Sold in March 2011, By City

Sales are definitely picking up around Seattle, but are still coming in well below last year in most areas. “I’m seeing a lot of fair-weather tire kickers out there,” says Redfin coordinator Janelle Saylor. “There just isn’t a sense of urgency in buyers.”

Today’s shoppers are definitely choosier than they have been the past few years. “If the home is at all in a good location, reasonable price and reasonable layout, it is moving now,” explains Redfin Capitol Hill Agent Bryon Ziegler.

It’s the same story on the Eastside. “There are a lot of people looking,” said Janelle, “and when a well-maintained, updated, well-priced home comes on the market, it goes quickly.”

Prices Continue Slipping

What do you get when you combine slower sales and stale inventory? Slipping prices, apparently.

Change in Median Price of King County Houses That Sold in March 2011, By City

Every one of our top cities but Kirkland saw a decrease in size-adjusted median sale price in March compared to a year ago, many by double digits. Much of this is due to an increase in action on bank-owned homes and short sales on the low end, but that doesn’t mean the pricier homes aren’t moving as well. “The sweet spot in today’s market seems to be move-up homes priced in the $400k to $550k range,” explains Klaus. Bryan confirms that he is seeing similar patterns in Ballard.

Today’s market seems to be stratifying more and more with each passing month, with very different action going on depending on your price range and neighborhood. If you’re trying to buy or sell today, or thinking about doing so in the near future, don’t take it lightly–do your research and learn what’s going on in your specific segment of the market.

Want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood? Download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. To learn more about how we calculate these numbers, check out our methodology page. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.