Case-Shiller: Seasonal Slide in Home Prices Continues

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of October:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between September and October (vs. eighteen from August to September): Only Phoenix saw an increase. Wait, Phoenix? Yup, Phoenix. Atlanta fell the most in October (again), falling a whopping 5.0% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Seattle’s tiers fell in October, with the middle tier taking the biggest hit. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.8%, the middle tier fell 1.3%, and the high tier decreased 0.7%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just four months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

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Should I Wait Until Spring to List My Home? – Seattle Edition

Over on the national blog, we just posted another big analysis of hundreds of thousands of listings and sales. Here are the numbers for Seattle, where winter is still a winning time to list your home for a quick sale, a better chance of selling, and a better price:

Case-Shiller: Get Ready for a Long Winter for Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of September:

Seventeen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between August and September (vs. eleven from July to August): Only Washington DC, New York, and Portland rose. Atlanta fell the most in September, falling a whopping 5.9% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Seattle’s tiers fell in September, but the middle tier took the biggest hit. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.9%, the middle tier fell 2.1%, and the high tier decreased 0.7%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just three months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now only three have avoided falling into the red.

Read the rest of this entry »

Case-Shiller: Summer Ends Early for Seattle Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of August:

Ten of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between July and August (vs. two from June to July): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Washington DC. saw the biggest increase this month, followed closely behind by Detroit and Chicago.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Seattle’s low tier did increase a tiny bit in August, but the middle and high tiers both dipped. Month to month, the low tier was up 0.04%, the middle tier fell 0.1%, and the high tier decreased 0.6%.

Here’s a new chart for you. In this one, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

The effects of 2009′s homebuyer tax credit are dramatically visible in this chart, as is the fairly strong spring we had this year, hitting 20 cities increasing for the first time since July 2005. However, the sudden drop-off of month-over-month gains in August’s data is interesting, since during a “normal” year we wouldn’t expect to see this many cities in the red until December or January. I think this indicates that there is still quite a bit of weakness in home prices.

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September Insider Report: Seattle Cooling Slower than Other Cities

Greetings, Redfinnians!

As promised, this month we rolled out a new and improved version of our monthly insider report. “But where is it,” you ask. Ahh, well this new report is available via email-only, and was sent out to a group of registered users who have saved searches or favorites in the Ballard area.

If you’d like to receive next month’s report, just make sure you’re signed up for our newsletters (check the “Redfin Announcements” box in your Account Settings), and save a favorite home or a search in Ballard. That’s it, you’re signed up!

Here on the blog we will continue posting the “lite” version of our monthly report, including our Redfin Heat Index, the heat map, and the hottest / coldest neighborhoods for the foreseeable future. So, let’s get into it.

First up is our national Redfin Heat Index* ranking table at right. As you can see, not much change for Seattle. Despite prices being down and months of supply up slightly from last month, pushing Seattle’s Redfin Heat Index down four points, Seattle moved up one spot on the national ranking, from #12 in August to #11 in September, as other areas fell even further.

Washington DC continues to be the hottest market in the nation, while Long Island is still pulling up the rear with falling prices and a dramatic 11.1 months of supply. Yikes!

Next up, let’s have a look at an update to our interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code, based on September data. Note that we only calculate the Redfin Heat Index for zip codes with at least 20 sales in September 2011 and September 2010, and as we head into the winter that means more and more zip codes will be grey with “not enough data.”

Next, let’s have a look at the hottest and coldest Seattle-area neighborhoods in September.

King County’s 5 Hottest Neighborhoods in September

Delridge making a repeat appearance in the top five, while Magnolia muscles out its neighbor Queen Anne.

King County’s 5 Coldest Neighborhoods in September

All righty, that’s it for this month. Stay tuned next month for our new and improved Insider Report!

As usual, you can download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself. Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

Case-Shiller: Only Seattle’s High Tier Gets a Summer Gain

Before we get going with this month’s Case-Shiller post, I’d like to apologize for the lack of an update last month. Long story short, this particular duty slipped through the cracks while I was out on leave. We heard from a number of readers who were lamenting the missing post. Rest assured, we have heard you and it will not happen again!

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – July data is released in September).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of July:

Only two of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between June and July (vs. none from May to June): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Weirdly, Detroit saw the biggest increase, followed by Minneapolis.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Only Seattle’s high tier was up in July, and then only slightly. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.7%, the middle tier fell 0.1%, and the high tier increased 0.1%.

Read the rest of this entry »

August Insider Report: Seattle-Area Real Estate Market Still Chilled

Greetings, Redfinnians!

We’re working on some new changes to our monthly Insider Reports that will bring together the expertise of our local agents with the unique market insights that we dig out of our vast array of real estate data every month.

In the mean time, rather than skipping out on August’s data entirely, here’s a “lite” version of our monthly report, including our Redfin Heat Index, the heat map, and the hottest / coldest neighborhoods.

First up is our national Redfin Heat Index* ranking table at right. As you can see, not much change for Seattle. With prices down eight percent balanced out by a slightly tight 4.2 months of supply, we’re still on the cool end of the scale, but not dramatically lower than most of the other cities Redfin serves.

Washington DC continues to be the hottest market in the nation, while Long Island is still pulling up the rear with falling prices and a dramatic 11.1 months of supply. Yikes!

Next up, let’s have a look at an update to our interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code, based on August data. Note that we only calculate the Redfin Heat Index for zip codes with at least 20 sales in August 2011 and August 2010.

Next, let’s have a look at the hottest and coldest Seattle-area neighborhoods in August.

King County’s 5 Hottest Neighborhoods in August

The only real surprise in that hottest list is Delridge. Perhaps homes in Delridge have gotten cheap enough to drive some heat back into that area?

King County’s 5 Coldest Neighborhoods in August

All righty, that’s it for this month. Stay tuned next month for our new and improved Insider Report!

As usual, you can download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself. Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

Case-Shiller: Spring Continues for Seattle Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – May data is released in July).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of May:

Only three of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between April and May (down from 7 in April and 18 in March). Boston ousted DC for the biggest increase, gaining 2.7% on the month. Only Tampa, Las Vegas, and Detroit continued to fall.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Seattle’s middle and high tiers had a strong showing in May, but the low tier actually lost some ground. Month to month, the low tier was down 1.0%, the middle tier fell 1.9%, and the high tier increased 1.1%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Real Estate Re-Runs (June Insider Report)

So far this summer the real estate market in Seattle is about as exciting as a Matlock Marathon at the High School Prom.

Very few quality, well-priced new listings are coming on the market, and when one finally does, it’s the same story every time as the few buyers that are out there all descend at once and end up bidding against each other.

In lieu of our usual tables full of data on listings, sales, and price, we decided to mix things up a bit this month with a sneak peek at the Redfin Heat Index (Beta)*.

For starters, we developed the table at right, which includes our heat ranking for every market where Redfin has real-time sales data.

That’s interesting (although more so for Washington DC and Long Island than for Seattle), but knowing that the entire Seattle area (King County) is lukewarm probably isn’t a surprise to anyone, and isn’t particularly insightful for those of us that are interested in what’s going on in our own specific neighborhood.

Fortunately, we didn’t stop there. We crunched the numbers for the entire Seattle area and produced an interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code:

Prices are still falling across most of the Seattle area, and although buyers are scarce, listings are even more rare, which is why you’re seeing some warmth in the map above.

“We’ve felt the effects of low inventory since last year. Everyone is waiting for the next great property to come up for sale, no matter the neighborhood,” explained Redfin Northeast Seattle and Mercer Island Agent Febe Cude. “Buyers are starting to get used to the multiple offer playing field. They understand that when a reasonably priced, turn-key home that fits their needs hits the market, they need to bring their A game.”

We ran the Redfin Heat Index at the neighborhood level and sure enough, Northeast Seattle—Febe’s area of expertise—topped the list of King County’s Top Five Hottest Neighborhoods in June:

King County’s 5 Hottest Neighborhoods in June

On the other end of the spectrum, here are King County’s Top Five Coldest Neighborhoods in June:

King County’s 5 Coldest Neighborhoods in June

Of course, in a market like this, comparing relative heats is almost like watching a race between a sloth and a snail, but I digress…

“New listings are slow to hit the market, and buyers are getting frustrated with the inventory,” said Redfin Redmond/Bothell Agent Kurt Pepin. “Buyers are anxious to buy, but are also being very smart about their purchases. The pure emotional buy is gone, while crunching every number possible has become the new norm.”

Speaking of crunching numbers, if you miss the tables of data, don’t fret! You can still download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

Case-Shiller: Spring Arrives in Seattle as Home Prices Rise Again

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – April data is released in June).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of April:

Only seven of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between March and April (down from eighteen the previous month). The biggest increase was in Washington DC again with a solid 3.0% gain. Other markets that saw increases above 1% were San Francisco (+1.7%), Atlanta (+1.6%), Seattle (+1.6%), Denver (+1.5%), and Cleveland (+1.2%).

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Seattle’s high tier saw the biggest gain again, while the low tier continued to fall behind. Month to month, the low tier was up 0.5%, the middle tier rose 1.3%, and the high tier increased 1.7%.

Read the rest of this entry »