Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices See Small Seasonal Uptick in April

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, plus seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - April data is released in June).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of April:

April 2009
Month to Month: Up 0.2%
Year to Year: Down 16.8%
Change from Peak: Down 22.3% in 21 months

The following chart shows the Seattle HPI scaled such that the July 2007 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Seattle HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (May 2005).

We pointed out last month that 2008’s April bump might be repeated again this year, and what do you know—it was. Nothing too surprising or noteworthy here. If prices keep rising through the spring and into the summer, then maybe we’ll have the beginnings of a bottom.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare the Seattle area’s performance to other areas across the country:

To recap, we have seen the following interventions in recent months meant to boost the housing market:

• $8k first-time buyer tax credit
• 4.5% - 5% mortgage rates
• various moratoriums on foreclosures
• numerous federal programs encouraging loan workouts

The apparent result of this host of actions has been a flattening to very slight upticks seen in the chart above, in a month that is historically one of the strongest of the year for the real estate market. I guess you can color me underwhelmed.

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

So far, we have yet to see any convincing evidence that Seattle’s home price drops are nearing an end. Of course, we’ll keep watching this and other metrics to keep you informed about the first signs of a bottom.

*[Case-Shiller defines Seattle as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.]

June City/Neighborhood Price Reductions

Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.

The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.

For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.

First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:

Of the 134 cities/towns we ranked in the greater Seattle area this month, 81 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more.

Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten greater Seattle area neighborhoods for price reductions:

Of the 104 neighborhoods we ranked in the greater Seattle area this month, 45 had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. On average, the neighborhoods with more price reductions had noticably higher median closed prices than those with fewer price reductions.

The general price reduction trend in the greater Seattle area looks to be generally holding steady, however every city and neighborhood is of course different. Some may be getting softer while others get tighter. Download the full spreadsheet to check where your neighborhood came in.

Biggest Discounts June Update

Let’s check in on our stats once again and find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the charts below, we have taken all sales data from last month in the Seattle area (King/Pierce/Snohomish) and sorted it by city/town. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any areas with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:

The overall discount rate for the Seattle area bumped up a bit in June from our previous update in April, rising to 3.7% from 4.1%. The Eastside dominated the top ten.

Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:

Of the 47 areas we ranked, only Covington came in with an average sale price above the average list price.

Here’s an added bonus. The following chart shows the top ten areas with the largest overall discount from the original list price, instead of the final list price:

Wow. Apparently sellers in Mercer Island are a little bit too optimistic when originally pricing their homes. It’s also interesting that the area-wide discount rate more than doubled up to 10%. On the other hand, we could say that this means Seattle-area sellers generally hit the value of their home within about 90% on the first try.

Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and hit the “FullSummary” sheet.

Of the 2,750 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 193 homes (7%) sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 71 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.

Case-Shiller: No Spring Bounce in Seattle Yet

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - March data is released in May).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle Area* as of March:

March 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.0%
Year to Year: Down 16.4%
Change from Peak: Down 22.5% in 20 months

The following chart shows the Seattle HPI scaled such that the July 2007 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Seattle HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (May 2005).

After some fairly major drops in November, December, and January, month-to-month price declines in the Seattle area have toned down somewhat to “just” 2.0% in March. Meanwhile, the year-to-year price drops continue to steadily grow. It will be interesting to see if last year’s April bump is repeated again this year. If not, the year-to-year number could easily bump up to around 20% by June.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Seattle’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Seattle’s relative post-peak performance continues to fall below that of most other markets served by Redfin. The 22.5% total post-peak price drop here is the 13th largest of the 20 markets tracked by Case-Shiller. Phoenix came in the highest at 53.0%, while Dallas is the smallest at just 11.1% off-peak.

*[Case-Shiller defines Seattle as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.]

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Drops Not Done Yet

It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - February data is released in April).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of February:

February 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.5%
Year to Year: Down 15.4%
Change from Peak: Down 20.9% in 19 months

The following chart shows the Seattle HPI scaled such that the July 2007 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Seattle HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (June 2005).

The magnitude of February’s drop was roughly equal to the gain that was seen between June and July 2005, when the housing bubble was in full force here in Seattle. It is also worth noting that the rate of month-to-month decline definitely softened from the last few months. It will be interesting to see if Seattle’s HPI actually posts a small gain this spring, as it did last year.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Seattle’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Of the 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller, only Miami, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Atlanta had fallen further from their respective peaks than Seattle at the 19-month mark. The relative rapidity of Seattle’s decline is likely due to the fact that we were “late to the party” with respect to the bursting of the housing bubble. In effect, we have more ground to cover in a shorter amount of time in order to “catch up” to what’s happening in the rest of the country.

*[Case-Shiller defines Seattle as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.]

Reminder: Robert Shiller at SPU Today at 1:00

Don’t forget that today at 1:00pm, Robert Shiller (the Shiller in Case-Shiller) will be giving a lecture at Seattle Pacific University. The event is free and open to the public.

More information on the SPU website.

Biggest Discounts April Update

Time for another update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in the Seattle area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.

Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:

At 3.7%, the overall discount for the Seattle area came in slightly lower than last month’s 4.4%. 98004 (west Bellevue) shot from #4 last month to #1 this month. Meanwhile, 98199 (Magnolia) made its debut in the top ten at #2.

Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:

What’s the deal with the south Tacoma zip code 98444? It was the only zip code to come in on this update with an area-wide average sale price above the average list price. Something smells fishy here, but looking at the raw data nothing jumps out as obviously incorrect… odd.

Of the 3,058 sales we tracked in the 1.5-month period, 215 homes sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 76 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.

We’ve been tracking the discount trend for five months now, and we have seen the Seattle area’s overall discount hold relatively steady between 3.4% and 4.4% off. It will be interesting to see what the spring and summer bring to these stats.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Drop 15% In One Year

It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - January data is released in March).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of January:

January 2009
Month to Month: Down 3.6%
Year to Year: Down 15.0%
Change from Peak: Down 19.7% in 18 months

The following chart shows the Seattle HPI scaled such that the July 2007 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Seattle HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (September 2005).

According to the Case-Shiller index, as of January home prices in Seattle have “rewound” three and a half years.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Seattle’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Price drops off the peak here in Seattle continue to turn in numbers lower than everywhere other than Los Angeles (in Redfin’s 7-city sample). For some perspective, home prices in Seattle have fallen more in 18 months than they have in 40 months in Boston.

*[Case-Shiller defines Seattle as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.]

March City/Neighborhood Price Reductions

Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.

The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.

For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.

First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:

Of the 131 cities/towns we ranked in the Seattle area this month, 94 (72%) had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. Such a large percentage would seem to indicate that most sellers around Seattle are still having trouble correctly gauging the market price of their home before putting it on the market.

Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten the Seattle area neighborhoods for price reductions:

Of the 100 neighborhoods we ranked in the Seattle area this month, 46 (46%) had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. Three different Tacoma neighborhoods popped up in the top ten again, along with repeat appearances from Sammamish, Hillsdale, and Education Hill.

We’re still seeing a degree of consistency in which neighborhoods and cities have the most price reductions. Are sellers in these locations just not very good at finding the right market price in the first place, or are they so anxious to sell that they drop the price early and often? Either way, the regions with the really high percentage of reduced-price homes are probably a good place to go bargain-hunting.

Biggest Discounts March Update

Let’s have an update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discount off the asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in the Seattle area (King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties) and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.

Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:

The overall discount for the Seattle area bumped up slightly from last month’s 4.2% up to 4.4%.

Here’s a map of the top ten discounted zip codes, courtesy of USNaviguide.com:

As you can see, the most discounted neighborhoods are spread fairly evenly around King County, with a couple popping up in Pierce and none in Snohomish.

Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:

Of the 3,136 sales we tracked in the 2-month period, just 28 homes sold for more than 20% off the asking price, while 409 homes sold for more than asking.

As a whole, the Seattle area is trending toward slightly larger discounts. As we continue to watch this data we will be able to get a better picture of what sale-to-list discounts tell us about the overall health of the local real estate market. Once we get enough data points, we’ll be able to plot the overall discount trend on a line chart for an interesting picture of the market.