Case-Shiller: Seasonal Slide in Home Prices Continues

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of October:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between September and October (vs. eighteen from August to September): Only Phoenix saw an increase. Wait, Phoenix? Yup, Phoenix. Atlanta fell the most in October (again), falling a whopping 5.0% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Seattle’s tiers fell in October, with the middle tier taking the biggest hit. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.8%, the middle tier fell 1.3%, and the high tier decreased 0.7%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just four months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

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Should I Wait Until Spring to List My Home? – Seattle Edition

Over on the national blog, we just posted another big analysis of hundreds of thousands of listings and sales. Here are the numbers for Seattle, where winter is still a winning time to list your home for a quick sale, a better chance of selling, and a better price:

Case-Shiller: Get Ready for a Long Winter for Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of September:

Seventeen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between August and September (vs. eleven from July to August): Only Washington DC, New York, and Portland rose. Atlanta fell the most in September, falling a whopping 5.9% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Seattle’s tiers fell in September, but the middle tier took the biggest hit. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.9%, the middle tier fell 2.1%, and the high tier decreased 0.7%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just three months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now only three have avoided falling into the red.

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It’s Bright to Tour In Dark and Stormy Weather

Guest post by Benjamin Sarao, Redfin Field Agent, Bellevue-Renton Team

Home buyers often let a little rain and cold weather wash away their plans for a productive weekend of house hunting. This past weekend was a good example.  All week, the Seattle weather forecast told us to start building arks and rounding up animals by the pair.  By Friday afternoon, I only had three tours on my weekend schedule. However, once the sun started shining, the home buyers lined up to see homes (and maybe even catch some rays in the process). That made me think: Even if it’s raining and cold outside, why not see a potential home that you would live in summer, autumn, winter, and spring?  Sure you might get a little wet, but there are several reasons to tour homes on a rainy day:

Lighting – It’s good to see a home when it’s cloudy in order to determine how bright the home really is inside.  A home that is bright, even on a cloudy day, is a good find.

Leaks and Flooding – Home inspectors say that inspecting a home on a rainy day enables them to see if there is water in the crawl spaces and other places you might not expect or want to see it. I wonder how many people buy in the summer and don’t find out about leaking or flooding issues until the first heavy, consistent rains of fall or early winter.

Heating – There’s nothing more inviting than a warm home on a cold winter day.  On a warm day, it’s pretty much impossible to tell whether a home will get drafty in the winter.

Missed Opportunities – If a house is new to the market in the autumn or winter, home buyers who brave the weather to see the property may have a competitive advantage over those who wait for a sunny day. I’ve seen good homes get snapped up by smart buyers who use the winter months to their advantage.

The Polite Factor – This one is a head-scratcher for me. Some people think agents don’t tour in the rain. A client recently apologized to me for scheduling  a tour on a rainy day.  My response: Redfin tours homes in all kinds of weather! We understand that our home buyers will reside in their properties year-round. Why not see a home on a rainy or crisp winter day?

Certainly, everyone wants to see their future dream home in the best possible light. But here in Seattle, there are days when we’re going to see a property though a filter of clouds and often mixed with a little drizzle. Once you embrace that as a potential home buyer, you’ll be in a better position to find the right home for you.

Case-Shiller: Summer Ends Early for Seattle Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of August:

Ten of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between July and August (vs. two from June to July): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Washington DC. saw the biggest increase this month, followed closely behind by Detroit and Chicago.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Seattle’s low tier did increase a tiny bit in August, but the middle and high tiers both dipped. Month to month, the low tier was up 0.04%, the middle tier fell 0.1%, and the high tier decreased 0.6%.

Here’s a new chart for you. In this one, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

The effects of 2009′s homebuyer tax credit are dramatically visible in this chart, as is the fairly strong spring we had this year, hitting 20 cities increasing for the first time since July 2005. However, the sudden drop-off of month-over-month gains in August’s data is interesting, since during a “normal” year we wouldn’t expect to see this many cities in the red until December or January. I think this indicates that there is still quite a bit of weakness in home prices.

Read the rest of this entry »

September Insider Report: Seattle Cooling Slower than Other Cities

Greetings, Redfinnians!

As promised, this month we rolled out a new and improved version of our monthly insider report. “But where is it,” you ask. Ahh, well this new report is available via email-only, and was sent out to a group of registered users who have saved searches or favorites in the Ballard area.

If you’d like to receive next month’s report, just make sure you’re signed up for our newsletters (check the “Redfin Announcements” box in your Account Settings), and save a favorite home or a search in Ballard. That’s it, you’re signed up!

Here on the blog we will continue posting the “lite” version of our monthly report, including our Redfin Heat Index, the heat map, and the hottest / coldest neighborhoods for the foreseeable future. So, let’s get into it.

First up is our national Redfin Heat Index* ranking table at right. As you can see, not much change for Seattle. Despite prices being down and months of supply up slightly from last month, pushing Seattle’s Redfin Heat Index down four points, Seattle moved up one spot on the national ranking, from #12 in August to #11 in September, as other areas fell even further.

Washington DC continues to be the hottest market in the nation, while Long Island is still pulling up the rear with falling prices and a dramatic 11.1 months of supply. Yikes!

Next up, let’s have a look at an update to our interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code, based on September data. Note that we only calculate the Redfin Heat Index for zip codes with at least 20 sales in September 2011 and September 2010, and as we head into the winter that means more and more zip codes will be grey with “not enough data.”

Next, let’s have a look at the hottest and coldest Seattle-area neighborhoods in September.

King County’s 5 Hottest Neighborhoods in September

Delridge making a repeat appearance in the top five, while Magnolia muscles out its neighbor Queen Anne.

King County’s 5 Coldest Neighborhoods in September

All righty, that’s it for this month. Stay tuned next month for our new and improved Insider Report!

As usual, you can download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself. Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

Case-Shiller: Only Seattle’s High Tier Gets a Summer Gain

Before we get going with this month’s Case-Shiller post, I’d like to apologize for the lack of an update last month. Long story short, this particular duty slipped through the cracks while I was out on leave. We heard from a number of readers who were lamenting the missing post. Rest assured, we have heard you and it will not happen again!

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – July data is released in September).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of July:

Only two of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between June and July (vs. none from May to June): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Weirdly, Detroit saw the biggest increase, followed by Minneapolis.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Only Seattle’s high tier was up in July, and then only slightly. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.7%, the middle tier fell 0.1%, and the high tier increased 0.1%.

Read the rest of this entry »

August Insider Report: Seattle-Area Real Estate Market Still Chilled

Greetings, Redfinnians!

We’re working on some new changes to our monthly Insider Reports that will bring together the expertise of our local agents with the unique market insights that we dig out of our vast array of real estate data every month.

In the mean time, rather than skipping out on August’s data entirely, here’s a “lite” version of our monthly report, including our Redfin Heat Index, the heat map, and the hottest / coldest neighborhoods.

First up is our national Redfin Heat Index* ranking table at right. As you can see, not much change for Seattle. With prices down eight percent balanced out by a slightly tight 4.2 months of supply, we’re still on the cool end of the scale, but not dramatically lower than most of the other cities Redfin serves.

Washington DC continues to be the hottest market in the nation, while Long Island is still pulling up the rear with falling prices and a dramatic 11.1 months of supply. Yikes!

Next up, let’s have a look at an update to our interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code, based on August data. Note that we only calculate the Redfin Heat Index for zip codes with at least 20 sales in August 2011 and August 2010.

Next, let’s have a look at the hottest and coldest Seattle-area neighborhoods in August.

King County’s 5 Hottest Neighborhoods in August

The only real surprise in that hottest list is Delridge. Perhaps homes in Delridge have gotten cheap enough to drive some heat back into that area?

King County’s 5 Coldest Neighborhoods in August

All righty, that’s it for this month. Stay tuned next month for our new and improved Insider Report!

As usual, you can download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself. Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

This Might Be As Warm As It Gets (July 2011 Seattle Insider)

Greetings Redfinnians,

We’re back with the lowdown for July on what’s hot and what’s not in the Seattle market. Between upcoming changes in lending practices and few homes for sale, the market is staying sluggish heading into fall. The table below shows Seattle near the bottom of the list in terms of our new Heat Index (Beta)*.

To see the heat or chill in the Seattle neighborhoods where you’re looking at homes, just click on the image below to check out our interactive map that breaks down the ranking for every zip code in King County:

King County Heat Map by Zip Code

(Note: the map above is broken in Internet Explorer 9 and Google is working on the issue. In the mean time, please use Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome to view the map.)

King County’s 5 Hottest Neighborhoods in July

Competition is hot in Magnolia and Ballard, where turn-key homes fresh on the market immediately get multiple offers.

Redfin Capitol Hill Team Lead agent Allie Howard says: “I give the summer of 2011 an “F” for frustration! Sellers are frustrated as prices of comparable homes remain low and many cannot afford to sell at current price levels. Those sellers who must move on are opting to rent their homes until the market recovers. Buyers are frustrated as well due to the lack of available inventory. When something desirable appears on market, they find themselves competing against other buyers for the better homes. It may still be a ‘buyer’s market,’ but you have to be fast to reel in the winners.”

Redfin West Seattle agent Klaus Gosma echos Allie, noting that “it feels like the traditional summer buying season has been stymied by the lack of strong inventory. We’re still seeing well-priced homes in desirable areas going very fast. If rates stay attractive, I think this trend will continue into fall as quality listings trickle on the market.”

King County’s 5 Coldest Neighborhoods in July

That’s it for this month! If you miss our old tables full of data, just download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

Best,
Lisa Taylor, Redfin Analytics Team

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

Case-Shiller: Spring Continues for Seattle Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – May data is released in July).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of May:

Only three of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between April and May (down from 7 in April and 18 in March). Boston ousted DC for the biggest increase, gaining 2.7% on the month. Only Tampa, Las Vegas, and Detroit continued to fall.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Seattle’s middle and high tiers had a strong showing in May, but the low tier actually lost some ground. Month to month, the low tier was down 1.0%, the middle tier fell 1.9%, and the high tier increased 1.1%.

Read the rest of this entry »