Great info. Thanks, everyone.

Something about this house intrigues me, though it sounds like a significant project, $100k+.

David, I think Jez supplied your answer! Thank you for all your insights guys.

i visited the 2nd house--it is a dump. and listed as 4 bedrooms, but one of them is inside another bedroom, and another bedroom is maybe 5 x 6'. it needs a ton of work. and when we went to the open house there was a scary dog chained in the backyard. to boot.

In response to gfw's question:
This is actually a bit of a yes and a bit of a no. Yes, some buyers come in with this rationale – that they want to bid low as they expect the market to be even lower in six months. So, yes, we do see buyers with this rationale. However, it’s a no in the sense that these offers are not going to be accepted generally. A seller prices their house according to the current market and plans to sell in less than 6 months. Also, there is no way to know where the market will be in 6 months as that puts us in a completely different season (a summer and busier market in this case), so there is no sure tell sign of whether prices are going to continue to drop or not. Thus, a seller generally will not consider an offer based on where the market could be in six months – otherwise they would have waited to put their listing on until that time. I hope that helps!

Jim Holt
Redfin Bay Area Direct Agent

That house has been on the market forever. I think it started out at $599, then $549, and now 499K. So, what's wrong with it?

That's an interesting concept. I'm going to sound out the experts at Redfin to see if they know of cases when it's been put into practice.

I have a question for ya. Is it possible or common to build expected future market price into your bid? For instance, if you thought that the price would go down to $300 psf in six months, level out, then go up... does anyone make offers to the nadir of the market, even if you haven't reached the nadir yet? Of course it depends how desperate the seller is, I suppose, but I'm wondering if that's common.

You may well be right. Homes are going on and off the market all the time since the mortgage meltdown struck. This one's $359/sq ft which sounds reasonable for the neighborhood. It's also listing four bedrooms which is unusual for a house of this style. But, as always, the only way to reach real judgment is to go check it out.

I'm pretty sure the second house was on the market for quite a while this fall. I don't have the info, but I think the new price is a significant drop. It looks interesting, though. I thing the price is about $50 psf too high.