Toady: I am always grateful to you for your insider information on particular properties. I have seen this trick of "rebranding" a home before -- a little fixing up, a new price and, most astonishingly, a new address and they think nobody will notice. Well, good thing there are sharp eyes out there such as yours. Together we can all keep the market transparent (or at least less opaque). Good work!

I think Pop makes a pretty good point with his question. Agents are trying all manner of subterfuge to hide the panic. 1060 Page is an excellent example. This a double lot on the corner of 10th and Page, with a duplex and a 3/2 SFR. 1060 Page was listed as 1451 10th at $699K last September. It was reduced to $640K in mid-November, and then taken off the market entirely in December, only to come back on at a brand new low price and a whole new address.

So I'm not certain that the agent truly deserves kudos for being "up front."

Curious: I absolutely agree with you. There are several homes in Berkeley and Oakland with hefty price tags that are just not moving -- Westminster (127 days), Somerset (102), Grand View Drive (275) and Lincolnshire Drive (382)-- and most don't seem to want to contemplate price reductions despite no evidence they will find a buyer. Perhaps they can afford to wait it out (although probably not for 7 years as David suggests). A little birdie tells me Somerset should have gone on the market for $2.5m and it might have sold back then for that price.

In addition to hitting later in the cycle, slumps in the higher end market are difficult to assess. The inventory tends to be lower and the product less homogenous, making price comparisons and assessment more difficult (as they are in a good market as well). Homes that are grossly overpriced tend to suffer a complete lack of interest (Somerset seems to be in this category -- the home struck me as grossly overpriced from the moment it hit the market). Buyers tend to be fewer and become more discerning to the details (Brookside seems to be in this category -- nicely done home in a nice neigborhod, but the location right on Claremont is not so good). I have noticed in some markets -- Carmel is an example -- sometimes prices don't drop, but nothing sells. So while the price is not changing, the market clearly is not well.

Soon? Depends on your definition of "soon." Last time the bust lasted about 7 years. Last time in SoCal, the bust hit the nice 'hoods about 4-5 years into it, after Riverside, etc got blown up.

David: I agree with your analysis. The local markets that seem to be holding out the longest are some SF neighborhoods and Palo Alto/Mountain View. Where the big money is sloshing around in other words. But surely they too will crack under the pressure soon?

Pop: Good question. I certainly don't know of a one-stop-shop for price reduction data and sellers' agents are definitely not rushing to provide it. I only keep track of it when I have been following a home since it went on the market. We could do with something more comprehensive. Any ideas readers?

Interesting post, Tracey. 7030 Westmoorland might be one to add to the list - down to 1,349 after being much higher if memory serves.

A question - are original list prices and subsequent new/reduced prices tracked officially anywhere, or is that part of the "service" a buyer's agent provides (knowing a home has been reduced a few times, or was on the market a year ago, didn't sell, and is BOM but not officially listed as BOM since much time has passed)? Is that information purposely hidden in the way real estate markets work, so that buyers can't surmise how truly "motivated" (read: panicked) sellers might be? Or is it an innocent lack of information and one shouldn't read something sinister into it?

All real estate cycles end the same way--the marginal areas blow up first, as they had the largest % gains (i.e. a 2/1 in the Laurel going for $550K in 2005, versus $110K in 1997, as opposed to an upper Rockridge house going for $480K in 1997 and now selling for ~$1M), and the price declines work their way inward to the nicer neighborhoods. Depending on the magnitude of the boom, some nice areas may never see actual declines. This time, I think they will, including SF.