January 21, 2008

My Neighbor Eric Thinks I’m In A “Sweet Place”

If I had hoped my trip to the old country would provide a respite from the effects of a real-estate market in free-fall, I was mistaken. The headlines in England made it clear that the outlook is looking increasingly grim there too: “House price gloom recalls 1990s”, “Banks warn on mortgage defaults” and “Average house prices fall still further” they declared.

Still, back in Berkeley with a fresh eye, I detect some cause for optimism. Slowly, slowly new listings are appearing on the horizon and price reductions continue apace. My neighbor Eric tells me that, as a buyer, I am in a “sweet place” right now, and I hear similar views expressed by those within the real-estate industry.

This weekend saw about a dozen fresh listings in my patch (although be wary of all “first open” claims — I visited this lavishly remodeled Rockridge home at the tail-end of last year. I wouldn’t forget that sleek white kitchen in a hurry), and it seems to me many of them are realistically rather than optimistically priced. Here are a my top three picks:

 My Neighbor Eric Thinks Im In A Sweet Place

6205 Mathieu Avenue in upper Rockridge (above) is a 4/3.5 “architecturally distinctive” home built in 1997 with what appears to be lashings of style. Given the location, how polished the interiors look and the house’s size, the $1.275,000 price-tag doesn’t look too daunting.

claremont 7515 My Neighbor Eric Thinks Im In A Sweet Place

7515 Claremont Avenue (above): this mid-century home in the lower Claremont hills has been expanded and remodeled over the years and has great flow and some beautiful finishes — particularly in the bathrooms (I know because I visited it). It suffers, or benefits depending on your point of view, from being secluded and up a very steep (almost vertical) driveway, and three of the bedrooms are small. Still, priced at $895,000, my bet is it will be snapped up, possibly over asking.

francisco st My Neighbor Eric Thinks Im In A Sweet Place

2008 Francisco Street (above) in central Berkeley is an intriguing-looking 2/1.5 contemporary brown shingle which is described as an “award-winning jewel box”. I know that the word jewel is invariably a euphemism for “small”, but I like the look of this place (small can be beautiful and we all have too much “stuff” anyway) and the price is a reasonable-sounding $650,000.


  • Toady
    Well, shut my mouth. 2008 Francisco apparently sold for $706K. That seems insane to me, but as we've observed, a home's value can be set by one person for whom price (and market conditions) are no object.

    This neighborhood continues to set sale prices that totally astound me.
  • D Gordon: No, no, no. My neighbor (who I only mention because he has long experience of buying and selling homes in Berkeley) thinks I'm well placed as a potential buyer because prices are in freefall. Yes I am renting, but I'm ready to pounce when the right home -- at the right price -- appears.
  • A home's value is arguable, of course. But as stock prices should (and in a normal market, do) reflect the earnings of the company, homes prices should reflect the cost to rent that home. Look at historical ratios of rents vs. home prices and you will see we are WAY out of whack these days. And then for fun look at home price growth compared to income growth over the past several years. It is quite comical, but not really. Once prices come back down 20-30% as they should, and rents continue their torrid growth rates locally, you will see these ratios come back to normal historical levels. Until they get closer to normalcy, I can say it is good to be a renter as this Eric fellow opines.
  • Toady: Couldn't agree more. A home's value is precisely what someone is prepared to buy it for, irrespective of the state of the market. I also agree that comparing current prices to those in the past is futile. It's just one big roller coaster out there.
  • Toady
    I don't think "reasonable" is useful adjective when you're talking about California real estate. The only thing that matters is what one person is willing to pay for a listing. It last sold for $240K in 2002, but that doesn't necessarily mean there isn't someone out there willing to pay $650K now.

    Still, I think the owners are being a little optimistic. This has certainly been the latest hot neighborhood in Berkeley, but between Milvia and Shattuck puts this address on the fringes of that area. And while the house is beautiful, it's a little small and not really laid out well for a family with children; the lot is tiny and irregular.

    Six months ago, this might have brought $650K, but I really don't see that happening now. Maybe mid-500s.
  • SC: I would agree with you that $650K (in this case $570 sq/ft) seems a lot for two bedrooms. But I don't think you can make broad generalizations when it comes to assessing a home's value. Location plays a huge part (and this one seems good) as does how the house presents (layout, proportions, flow, interior decor). I haven't seen inside this one so am only going on photos -- if anyone has visited it I would love your views) so let's see what happens to this one. I stand ready to be corrected.
  • sc
    650k for a 2 bedroom 1 bath house is not reasonable. Im sure that house was 150k before 2002.
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