SF and Daly City: Of Skyscrapers and Stratification
“San Francisco is changing so rapidly some say the San Franciscans of 2007 won’t recognize the place in five years,” warns Carl Nolte of The Chronicle. These changes are seen in parts of the city most of us had written off: South Beach, China Basin, Dogpatch- once scrappy areas that are now giving birth to giant towers of luxury condos, boutique shops, and expensive restaurants.
Of course, such change is on the one hand exciting. No one could look at One Rincon Hill and think “boring!” Still, Nolte points out that “some experts worry that a new San Francisco of high-rises and fine living will be a city of the very rich and very poor, a boutique city and not a real one….. less diverse [economically] and to some extent less racially and ethnically diverse.” In other words, still left out in the cold (and the rental market is cold hearted indeed), the middle classes will eventually give up on SF, and flee for parts more suburban, or for cities less rarified.
Think it can’t happen? It’s happening right now in New York, where long time Manhattanites are, according to The New York Times, “discovering that with Manhattan’s high apartment prices, they can cash out and get much more for their money outside the city, where the inventory is growing and the prices are falling.”
A similar phenomenon is happening in the Bay Area, since in both Daly City and Oakland– this city’s nearest “suburban” options, prices are falling (see Front Steps and Housing Predictor), not to mention the slumps in cities furthur afield. Concievably then, people who struggle to rent (or own) an overpriced one bedroom in SF will start to see the appeal of owning (or renting) an entire, multi-bedroom single family home for the same price.
Socketsite also throws in an interesting question: “How will falling prices outside of San Francisco proper (or even in the outer districts) impact the demand curve (and prices) throughout the rest of the city?” Thus, if the demand for housing in SF falls off, prices too might fall off. But who’ll be left to enjoy that?
San Francisco Supervisors do have some control of what gets built, where, and how much it will sell for. Ostensibly, they care what we, their constituents, have to say about new construction and urban planning that responds to the needs of ALL of its residents. Thanks to Socketsite commenter “Jamie,” I was reminded that the next meeting of the Board is January 8.
See you there?
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Painting: Emanuel Leplin “Skyscapers”
