January 7, 2008
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Sales of San Francisco Bay Area new and resale homes have declined for the last 34 months, according to numbers reported by Inman News, a Bay Area-based real estate insider publication, on its blog. This is a clue-in to the reality that neither hot nor cold housing markets happen overnight, but in degrees, and the closer you watch, the sooner you figure it out. (Inman News started reporting the housing slowdown in August 2005.) Lots of people were slow to get the memo, but now it seems the news is hitting home. Do you think the general public now believes there is a housing slowdown? And how soon do you think the market will recover? I think prices will continue to go down throughout 2008, then remain low for three to five years. What’s your opinion?
sc said:
I agree. I think the type of appreciation that occured the past 7 years was not realistic and much based on speculation and liars loans which do not exist anymore. Conventional loans do not support the price appreciation, and therefore prices must come down in order for buyers to qualify for loans.
There is no logic that homes priced for 300k in 1996 are selling for 1.4MM in 2007. It simply doesnt make sense.
January 7, 2008 7:04 PM
Janis Mara said:
Thanks for the validation! I thought a whole bunch o’ folks might take issue with my assertion. I totally agree with you that homes that cost $300,000 are not *worth* $1.4 million in 2007. I remember when the housing market was red-hot people were always saying, “I can’t believe that little dump is worth……” and they were right!
January 9, 2008 11:27 AM