Kim, I have noticed that the SFGate listings are both slow to appear online and apt to include mistakes -- such as duplicated listings.

Interesting, they have updated the list on sfgate.com?

Kim

Hi Tracey,

Did you see the listing for March 2 on Sfgate.com. No new sold houses. What do you make of that. A mistake?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

Kim

Hi Tracey:

You asked:

Ira: Any chance of the so-called backed-up inventory hitting the market soon? Or even just more properties because it’s spring and that’s usually the time the market is at its most brisk? I’m wishful thinking given that I’m trying to buy a home!

And it just so happens that Carol recently wrote:

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We’ve been in business since the 80s and at this time of year, it’s always pretty much the same..... slow with short brokers’ tours for us on Thursdays because there isn’t much that’s new on the market for us to see and report on. It’s frustrating for us too, because our buyers sometimes disappear when the house they want just doesn’t show up....or if it suddenly does, they choose not to act, or just act too late.

Lack of inventory in the winter for whatever reason, wet rainy weather, seller perception that “spring is the best time to sell”, means pent-up buyer demand. So when nice homes do come on the market they get snapped up, much like they were during our hot market period and buyers still wind up competing with each other. We live in a highly desirable area and people move around, so there is turnover, just not as much as we all would like right now! I spoke with a Marin County agent yesterday and she said the same thing about her market.

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Ira Again:
Carol referred to us reporting on homes on the market.

We preview 15-20 homes each week on the Berkeley Thursday tour, send our clients extraordinarily detailed notes... and assign each home an exclusive LTC rating between 1 and 4.

Unless the house is really bad.

Then it gets the dread "Hair Ball" rating

You see, LTC stands for Lucy The Cat, and though she's no longer with us, she lives on with her LTC rating of 1 to 4 paws. The hairball rating speaks for itself.

Ira.. now owned by Poudini (the escape artist) and her mean sister, The Baby Terrorist

Check out 5895 Skyline. Top of the hill, relatively new house (1993), 2100 sq ft on a quarter-acre lot. Last sold in 2005 for $1M, now bank-owned and on the market for 40% less.

But, hey, prices never drop in nice areas, right?

Mrbrogue, it's only a matter of time until the "nice" parts of Berkeley (and SF and the Peninsula) get hit. All R.E. busts are like this--it starts in the outlying/marginal neighborhoods and moves upward and inward.

Again, pull out your history book to 1989-1996. Exactly the same pattern here and in SoCal. Deny it all you want, you're just part of the pattern, and Berkeley/Elmwood/Nob Hill/etc etc will bottom out in another 4-5 years, about 2-3 years after places like Hayward, San Leandro, the Laurel etc bottom out. People who are buying now in Elmwood at or near list are just knifecatchers.

Just noticed that as well as Prince quietly coming down in price, so has 110 Brookside, from $995K to $975K, and 26 The Uplands from $1,395K to $1,275K.

David has pointed out in the past that stubborn sellers will end up "chasing" the market to the bottom. Looks like there's evidence of this in the Elmwood now, which might not count as weakness in Elmwood so much as poor pricing strategy. Woolsey, Webster and Alcatraz moved plenty quickly.

It will be interesting to see what Woolsey, Webster, Alcatraz, and the two on The Uplands finally go/went for - above asking or below. (Tracey, thanks for posting Berkeley sales - I'll be watching for those addresses.)

Also interesting that another "heart of the Elmwood" listing, 2742 Prince, didn't get acceptable offers at its $1,150,000 listing price (late fall '07?) and has just quietly reduced to $1,095,000 - but it's not being actively marketed. What's the strategy?

http://www.zillow.com/HomeDeta...

david:

Maybe in Antioch, Hercules, outlying areas, maybe even down Ashby in the Ashby Bart/End of Shattuck Ghetto. But we have yet to see *any* weakness in the Elmwood/Gourmet Ghetto areas, matter of fact, even a low value overpriced property like 1404 oxford can move (went contingent status yesterday) just because of the location.

...and P.S. 2436 Stuart is not in Elmwood, its near Andronicos/Telegraph, a pretty shabby neighborhood where people get robbed and cars get broken into all the time, I know its very close in distance but for some reason the areas are like night and day...

What's happening is a classic R.E. bust. First buyers start pulling back, but sellers are slow to recognize and keep putting homes on the market. Inventory builds, but sellers refuse to cut their prices. Then you have a buyers' strike, where even though you have potential buyers out there, they don't buy until there's a real price cut. Then all the "discretionary" sellers (i.e. the move-up sellers) drop their houses from the market, and voila' you just have desperate sellers (and REOs) left on the market.

THEN the price cutting starts to happen.

Mrbogue: It is interesting that you pick those neighborhoods as being more vulnerable than The Elmwood. I will keep an eye on them them and see what transpires.

Toady: Firstly I would question whether 2436 is truly in The Elmwood. One could of course debate such matters ad infinitum (and why not?!) but given its proximity to Telegraph, I would argue this house is certainly not Elmwood heartland. I remember when it went on as a FSBO in April 07 for $859,9999 (http://sfbay.redfin.com/blog/2.... Then it reappeared in December 07 priced $667,000 and, as you say, here it is again: a bank approved short sale at the same price. Do they think nobody is tracking these things?
Kim: I am truly in admiration of your vigilance in keeping track of Berkeley house matters and price reductions. Keep it up. It's data like yours that keep us on our toes!

Toady: 2436 Stuart was in contract. It fell out, I guess. I keep a eye on (most) houses that have a reduced price in Berkeley.

As you can see on my blog, there are lots of housing "weaknesses" in Berkeley, just not so much in Elmwood or the Gourmet Ghetto...yet!

Kim
http://berkeleycrash.blogspot....

Anyone notice that 2436 Stuart was taken down then relisted AGAIN? And at the same price. I think this is the third time it's been relisted. What is this agent not getting?

Of course, I'm sure this has to do with the property itself and not any weakness in Elmwood.

Kim: Thanks, weird that redfin just shows it as "off the market"..

Aftering seeing how quickly these two properties (Woolsey and Webster) moved, I really doubt there is any substantial backed up inventory in Elmwood or Gourmet Ghetto. I would bet however we may see weakness in the Thousand Oaks, 4th Street, Monterey Market neighborhoods, since you're starting to see alittle foreclosure activity in those areas.

Mrbogue: Both 2637 Woolsey and 2635 Webster found buyers quickly. I think the reason is that they are both in the Elmwood, a desirable location, particularly for those of us who like to walk as much as we can. Woolsey is a solid Craftsman style home which needed some work but was fairly priced for the location. Webster is a duplex which was bought by someone who plans to transform it into a SFH. It too had a realistic price and had great potential. I think it has a better aspect than Woolsey as it is set back from the street. It has a good-size yard at the back too, unlike Woolsey.

Ira: Any chance of the so-called backed-up inventory hitting the market soon? Or even just more properties because it's spring and that's usually the time the market is at its most brisk? I'm wishful thinking given that I'm trying to buy a home!

Kim: Apologies -- the last listing is actually for Sunday Feb 24th (here it is: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/....

Sorry is't http://www.grubbco.com/

Kim

Bogue: 2637 Woolsey is pending (See: http://www.grubb.com)

Tracey: where did you find the "Neighborhood Homes Sold" listing for the 21st, on sfgate.com? I can only see the one from the 17th. You know something I don't. Please tell :-).

Kim

Bogue, 2637 Woolsey is pending (http://grubbco.mlsb.com/idx/cp...

Tracey, where did you find the "Neighborhood Homes Sold" listing for the 21st, on sfgate.com? I can only see the one from the 17th. You know something I don't :-).
(http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

Kim

Few sales for sure!

But when there aren't many homes coming on the market, there won't be many sales.

Carol & I just finished the Berkeley MLS Realtor/Broker tour ... and the Thursday Tours continue to be quite small. I don't have the exact count (I'm at the Apple Store to buy the Aperture Photo Software Upgrade)... but I'd think fewer than 2 dozen listings came on the market this week.

Ira Serkes

Anyone notice this?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray...

2637 Woolsey ($925,000) has gone off the market. I thought this was especially weird because the duplex at 2635 Webster Street priced at $1,150,000, which is one street up and IMO a less desirable area (access to the elmwood boutique stores but also the crime, litter, etc. that might go with it) sold with very little time on the market. I'm pretty sure if they stayed on the market alittle longer the house might have moved But are we seeing the beginning of a trend? Afterall Elmwood has long been known as "untouchable".. or does anyone out there know something I don't about whats going on with 2637 Woolsey?