March 1, 2008

The Distress Signals Are Clear: Proceed With Caution, Or Walk Away

Bay Area homes sales are the lowest in more than 20 years — fewer than 4,000 changed hands in January. In Alameda country just 780 homes sold last month, a 39% drop over the same period last year. (A mere seven were recorded as having sold last week in Berkeley bringing the January total to 31.) And the median price for a home in Alameda is down to $487,750 from $570,000.

And yesterday the New York Times reported on a new company in San Diego called You Walk Away which helps homeowners do just that when they face foreclosure.

Whether we are dealing with a lull caused by market turbulence or a rapidly declining state of affairs with no turnaround in sight, these facts and figures make it clear a cautious approach is in order, whether you are a buyer or a seller.

With that in mind I am setting a $1m limit on the new listings you might choose to visit this weekend. That figure is of course higher than the average price of a home in Berkeley (which currently stands at around $700,000), but in these uncertain times it is just as likely that the price will go down before finding a buyer, so in a spirit of optimism I give you the following:

pine other The Distress Signals Are Clear: Proceed With Caution, Or Walk Awaybrookside The Distress Signals Are Clear: Proceed With Caution, Or Walk Away

Three new listings:

1171 Sutter Street: a 3/2 “romantic” Mediterranean with views but walkable to Solano Avenue. Price: $949,000.

2690 Pine Avenue (above left): One-level craftsman in The Elmwood which reader Kim believes is small for the price, and I hear it could do with some basic tidying up not to mention a makeover. Price: $899,000.

658 The Alameda: a 3/2 Dutch Colonial with views and separate office. (Busting the budget a tad) price: $1,175,000.

Two to revisit:

110 Brookside Drive (above right): This 3/2 Tudor-style home might be worth another look as its price has been cut twice from $1,095,000 to $949,000. (Why the listing only shows a photo of an exotic plant is beyond me.)

1452 Grizzly Peak Boulevard: 3/3 contemporary with views now being offered separately from its adjacent lot so newly priced at $990,000.

Three “Coming Soons”:

There’s a 2/2 one-level home in Rockridge for $799,000 through Coldwell Banker; a 6/4 “stately” remodeled home in Crocker Highlands for $1,395,000 through Grubb Company; and a “pristine” 2/1 Craftsman bungalow at 1541 Channing Way, also through Grubb.


  • catsjellicle
    wow! thanks, kim. thats a steep fall for just 4 months. perhaps this will set a precedent for the 1m+ homes to reset realistically?
  • Kim
    Catsjellicle: the Rose house was just reduced to $930,000

    How low can you go…

    Kim
  • Kim: I get it now. Very cool. Thank you.
  • Kim
    Hi Tracey,

    I do include the closing prices on my blog. It's just that most of the houses haven't sold yet :-).
    If you are looking at the map, you can see some red pointers. They are houses I have followed that are now sold. All the green house icons are houses that have yet to be sold.
    Click on any icon to see a pop-up, which will include price reductions. If a house is sold (on my watch!), you’ll see the closing price at the bottom.

    Let me know if you have any other questions.

    Direct link to map:
    http://maps.google.com/maps/ms...

    Kim
  • Kim: Thank you for answering my reader's question! Your site provides useful data. I wonder, do you ever look at closing prices too? It would complete the picture nicely don't you think?
  • Kim
    By the way, I added a nice Google map to my blog. It shows all houses (that I know of) in Berkeley with a reduced price:
    http://berkeleycrash.blogspot....

    Feel free to give my feedback and tips on Berkeley houses with reduced price that are not on my list

    Enjoy

    Kim
  • Kim
    ohhh the story of 2257 Rose st...

    Bought by a couple of realtors for a quick profit. They worked on the foundation and put it back on the market for $1,395,000 in October. Now it’s $975,000.

    Here is the price history:

    2577 Rose st. Berkeley, CA 94708
    Last sold 08/09/2006: $1,280,000

    FOR SALE:
    October 07: $1,395,000
    Price reduced October 07: $1,150,000
    Price reduced January 08: $1,050,000
    Price reduced March 08: $975,000

    How low can you go...

    Kim
  • catsjellicle
    hey tracey..do you know the story behind 2257, rose?

    it has reappeard(rather anonymously) here> http://www.redfin.com/stingray...

    a 50k reduction from http://www.redfin.com/stingray... it was purchased for 1.28m in 2005...for a price tag of close to 1m, it doesnt have a garage! confounding!
  • Toady
    Wow, that is insane. Aren't markets supposed to be rational?

    Still, I think 291 Alvarado was particularly huge. Almost 4,000 sf, so at about $478/sf, it's still a lot cheaper than 1924 B 8th.
  • Kim: Thanks for your comments. I'll keep you posted on Euclid if I see it.
    Toaday: There is always an (annoying) exception to the rule. Although it's not in the Elmwood, 291 Alvarado just sold for $1.9m on an asking of $1.59m. If someone wants a house badly enough market conditions seem to be immaterial.
  • Toady
    Seems as though inventory is beginning its Spring pick up, but some of these new listings are not only priced high considering current market conditions, but totally out of scale with even the last six months of comps.

    2690 Pine isn't just the second most expensive current listing in all of Berkeley by $/sf, its priced higher than anything that's sold in Elmwood in the last six months.

    1924 B 8th, even though its a tiny cottage in Oceanview, is the third most expensive listing in Berkeley by $/sf, and is seemingly priced higher than anything that's sold in West Berkeley ever.

    Are these agents just testing the waters, or have they not read a newspaper in the last six months? I've long thought that the hot market supported a whole class of agents who should really not be in sales-oriented careers.
  • Kim
    Also, now that you are out and about check out 927 Euclid ave. Its $1,015,000. Just had a $60,000 price reduction. You can always try a $950,000 bid :-). I haven’t seen the house yet myself. Let me know what you think if you see it.

    Kim

    P.s Tracey love your blog
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