March 10, 2008

More Foreclosure Sales than Resales in California

foreclosure More Foreclosure Sales than Resales in California

For the first time in recorded history, and likely ever, the number of homes sold at foreclosure auctions exceeded the number of single-family and condo resale home sales in a month, according to ForeclosureRadar.com and DataQuick Information Services.

Foreclosure auction sales hit 19,821 in the month of January (454% increase over January 2007), while 19,145 resale transactions were recorded — the lowest monthly figure DataQuick has tallied going back to 1988.

DataQuick’s January foreclosure activity report also shows that Bay Area notices of default rose 137% in Q4 2007 over the same period in 2006. San Francisco’s nearly doubled from 173 to 334, for a 93% increase.

So far the vast majority of foreclosures are concentrated in some very well publicized areas — Sacramento, the Central Valley, Riverside, San Bernardino — and the leaders in the Bay Area are the east bay — Contra Costa and Alameda counties.

Trustees Deeds recorded (the actual loss of a home to foreclosure) hit an all-time high of 31,676 in Q4 2007. In the last real estate cycle, they peaked at 15,418 in Q3 1996. The all-time low was 637 in Q2 2005.

Ouch.

This is not a good sign of things to come. I feel the worst is only beginning and the correction is only picking up speed, and it obviously has yet to severely hit the inner areas (most of San Francisco, for one).


  • Thanks, Anna. I just found that article and read it. I have seen very little written on that although it may be a huge headline in coming years.

  • anna

    Interesting post, David. Did you read the baby boomer bust article recently in the Chron? Adds another ominous dimension...

  • David

    Agree with WC R.E.--this is classic R.E. bust behavior. We'll continue to see sales dry up until that mindset changes, and when the attitude changes from "R.E. always goes up, at least in the long-term" to "Oh God, get me out of this mess, now"--that's when the price cutting will really accelerate. It'll also help when the "loss mitigation" departments at the banks give up on their collective fantasy that the house they're holding with that $700,000 loan is worth more than the $350,000 the house sold for in 2002.

  • David,

    It's so tough to tell. But I'd say many WILL hold back through Spring, hoping that the current inventory will ease so they can list at a 'decent' price.

    But then at some point they'll relent and list. Whether that's late Summer or early Winter ... I don't know.

    At some point the mindset will turn from "I'm waiting for the market to turn back up" to "I need to sell now before the market goes down any further".

    When that mindset changes inventory will accelerate and fast!

  • Yeah, I'm also interested in when WC RE thinks inventories will peak. I apologize if this is in hideously bad taste, but you know the Death Game where you try to guess when a public figure will die? We should start our own version of MarketWatch but call it MarketDeathWatch. Guess when the market will bottom out! Bonus points for the closest guess to the *final* all-time high for Trustees Deeds recorded!

  • david gordon

    WC RE-

    I say the inventories will really start to shoot up this summer and later this year. You agree?

  • david gordon

    You are absolutely right, David. Most lenders are not letting these go for what they probably should be at auction. People always say banks hate to hold real estate and that it is not one of their core businesses, but they better get a grip on reality and start letting them go for less than they are buying them back for at auction if they really want to not own them.

  • I'm not sure we've seen the substantial increase in inventory these auction properties will bring to the market. Inventories are still very high, days on market increasing ... I agree that the signs are ominous.

  • David

    You should also remember that those houses "sold" at auction most likely went back to the lender, and will be coming onto the market over the next few months (if they aren't coming on right now).

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