Archive for April, 2008
April 30, 2008
Yesterday I read an article in The Wall Street Journal talking about the drop in the Case-Shiller home index, which measures home price levels in 20 major metro areas—Bay Area included. Looking at the current rate of decline, the article noted that prices are dropping by 25% on a three-month annualized basis. Whoa.
However, some recent price reductions in San Rafael have already hit that 25% mark—and it didn’t even take 365 days. Pretty dramatic price reductions but maybe an opportunity to find some a good value in your next home.
166 Oak Dr, San Rafael - 3 bedrooms, 2 baths - $999,000: Now just under $1 million, this house was first listed back in November for almost $1.3 million. Near the Loch Lomond area of San Rafael, this offers great views of the water and Mt. Tam. Sits on a large lot with a unique A-frame style.
7 Belloreid Ave, San Rafael - 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths - $799,000: Attractive Miracle Mile/Sun Valley location, this close to 1400sf house sits on just over half an acre. First listed in February for $1,079,000, it’s price has been dropped by over $250K.
April 30, 2008
I haven’t checked in with DataQuick stats for a while—and they’re always revelatory—so here we have the sales activity for 11 Alameda communities for the month of March showing the percentage change from the same month last year. (For the full data, including Piedmont, Pleasanton, San Leandro, San Lorenzo and Union City, as well as the other Bay Area counties, go here.)
The most dramatic figure is a 200% drop increase in sales in Berkeley 94704, with three houses sold there last month (which just means only one sold there in the same month last year [thanks reader “Red” for pointing out that fact!]). No single It was the only area to post a positive result but two Oakland zips, 94610 and 94612, stayed steady as did Berkeley 94710.
Oakland 94603 suffered the biggest decrease in median house prices, down effectively 50% to $205,500.
Barely the only positive number in the table is the price per square foot for a single family home in Oakland 94618 which has gone up 34.5% to $612 (with a high price last month of $1,337,500). Given this covers the sought-after Rockridge district, perhaps this is not altogether surprising. Three new listings in the area include this cute looking 3/2 Craftsman with cottage at 518 Forest Street for $695,000; this well-located 3/2 home with separate studio at 5437 Shafter Avenue, priced $895,000; and this 2/1 Craftsman one block from College Avenue at 5499 Kales Avenue.
April 30, 2008
This morning on our local news, I was aghast to learn that angry former homeowners are trashing their homes before being evicted due to foreclosure. Some have taken kitchen islands, appliances, stair railings, and just about anything and everything before leaving. Others have left feces on the walls and other equally horrible things, in an attempt to force the banks whom they feel failed them to get a lower price for the resale of their once-loved home.
This trend is causing the deterioration of neighborhoods across the Bay Area; when neighbors try to stop the damage, the police are called but they cannot do anything to the homeowner as long as he still has the title.
I can understand the anger and horrible sense of betrayal these people must have. I would certainly feel this way. But they need to understand that they are not only hurting the bank that misled them, they are also hurting their innocent neighbors as well.
And it is not as if the banks have been studiously working on property upkeep either. Many properties sit vacant with unmown lawns, standing water serving as breeding grounds for mosquitoes, and squatters living inside. In Merced, vacant homes have also become sites for wild teen partys. According to the San Jose Mercury News, a bill is pending before the California state legistlature that would impose a fine of up to $1000/day for lenders and banking institutions who don’t keep up their foreclosed properties. It has already passed the Senate, and is expected to pass the House as well. Hopefully, this will help keep our neighborhoods looking good, and restore a sense of lost pride.
April 30, 2008
Thank you, Kathleen Pender. In the SF Chron’s Sunday Business Section, Kathleen
penned an article titled “As ARMS Reset, Little of the Expected Chaos Is Coming to Fruition.” I love, love, love seeing some good news on the housing front. Yes, the Feds have stepped in, and maybe that is not such a good thing, but overall the resetting is not wreaking the havoc that was first estimated.
We’ve all been staring into the well, trying to see if the housing prices have yet hit bottom. By now we all know that there has been no splash, and there is still a ways to go (the term “digging to China” comes to mind). How deep that well is, well…that’s open to interpretation. For a variety of takes on this subject you can read:
Marketwatch “Home prices plunge at faster pace in February”
Wall Street Journal “Foreclosure Numbers Double from 2007, California Yet to Hit Bottom”
LA Times “A bottom in housing? That’s a big ‘NO’”
Having watched the mortgage crisis hit and whip through the country, I have got to wonder where the mortgage industry is going to find a leg to stand on in the fight against tougher regulation. According to the New York Times, the “Loan Industry Fighting Rules on Mortgages.” Seems to be that they have one hand tied around their back in this fight, and we can only hope it will be a losing battle for them. Mortgage reform is necessary. Gotta learn from those mistakes to keep them from happening again in the future.
Last month I wrote about the problems of in-house appraisers and the inflation of housing prices to garner loans. Some safeguards have been put in place to correct this problem, and according to eFinance.com, “Inflated Appraisals May Become a Crime of the Past,” which is a very good thing.
The sharp eyes over at Front Steps pointed out the difference in reporting styles between KGO and SFGate, and how a few key words or phrases can result in remarkably different viewpoints. Case in point is the recent foreclosure stats for SF.
Big News on the Redfin front: Last night a new version of the search program at Redfin.com was released. You can now view FSBOs (for sale by owner) and bank-listed foreclosures, as well as another couple of cool features:
• Open-house search: Redfin users can search for open-house showings, rather than simply seeing them alongside other property listings.
• Open-house alerts: Redfin notifies users by email or RSS when an open house appears in their area.
• Favorites updates: Redfin notifies users by email when their favorite listings host an open house, change price or change status.
• Improved past-sales search: An improved interface for retrieving public records about recently sold homes lets users more easily see on Redfin’s map the price, size and location of homes that sold between one week and 20 years ago.
For the full scoop, check it out here.
April 30, 2008
The reason I ask is that two of my faithful readers have decided to focus on this Oakland “village” in their search for a new home.
That wouldn’t be enough to constitute a trend, of course, except that both these punters are extremely well-versed in Bay Area real estate. They have been keeping their eye on market conditions for some time, tracking inventory, watching prices and analyzing industry data. They are taking their time—no rash decision-making for them. And their expertise has been much appreciated in the Comments section of this blog. So I think when they both reach the same conclusion on the appeal of Montclair, it’s worth sitting up and taking notice.
This is what SurveyKid had to say:
The transaction price per square foot in Montclair has fallen to the low $300s. The asking prices are of course still higher. By late this year, and early next, that will regularly fall below $300/sq ft. We’ve decided on Montclair, barring other opportunities. We intend to buy in 2009.
And here’s David Gordon:
I also like Montclair a lot and am considering a purchase there late late this year (as there may potentially be more supply by end of this year than in 09, as I and some others believe) or in 09 as well. “Deals” are really starting to creep up into the better neighborhoods in Oakland whereas up until recently they have mostly been in less desirable neighborhoods.
There’s a lot to like about Montclair as I have mentioned before, including its Sunday Farmers’ Market (pictured below). The only reason I decided against it for my house purchase was that homes there tend to score low on the walkability factor (and you know how important that is to me). (Also in my three years of living in Berkeley I have become attached to my neighborhood, as you do.)
But I’m going to keep a closer eye on Montclair from now on. Here’s the Montclair Village website. (And if anyone out there has some interesting insights about Montclair to share with us all, don’t hesitate to join the conversation in the Comments section.)
Here are three new listings that may be for you (if you’re not beaten to them by my two Montclair-focused readers of course):
42 Wood Court: a 5/2.5 mid-century modern (you find lots of these swell domiciles in Montclair) on the market for the first time since it was built; comes with Bay views, gardens and large patios on 1/3 acre. Price: $1,800,000.
2578 Scout Road: this house doesn’t exist yet, but once it’s built it promises to be a 5/4, 3,365 sq ft home for the peculiar price of $1,199,888 ($357/sq ft).
Valley View Road: Bank owned 3/2.5 home with decks front and back providing views, some recent upgrades and two fireplaces. Price: $649,000 ($415/sq ft).
April 30, 2008
I decided to tour some homes this past Sunday and Tuesday since the weather was so fantastic. Okay, I walked into the one on 18th because I was playing tennis across the street at Dolores Park. Enjoy.
1719 9th Ave, Inner Sunset, $628k, 3/1
Having lived in this neighborhood years ago, I was interested to see this home priced where it is and on a nice street. I was not surprised after walking in and immediately realizing it is a borderline fixer. Being a probate sale, I knew this was a possibility. While walking through I overheard the listing agent tell someone that a lady over 100 years old died in the home. It needs quite a bit of work to make it livable for most people I know. The photo of the extremely dated kitchen is shown to the right. It is a nice shell for someone who has lots of cash to remodel and choose his/her own finishes, but a “deal” this is not.
57 Webster, Hayes Valley, $998.5k (reduced from $1.025M), 3/2
This 3/2 condo on 2 levels has been newly remodeled and staged nicely. Claiming 1800 sq ft with a privately deeded rear patio, there is quite a bit to offer for the price (comparatively speaking), that is, if you like these types of neighborhoods. About a 1/4 block from a “tiered” public housing project, I saw some questionable people walking around the neighborhood during the middle of the day yesterday. This would be a deterrent for me, but maybe not for others at this price point.
3816 18th St, Mission Dolores/Dolores Park, $1.4988M, 2/1
This amazing home can only be appreciated in person in my opinion. It has been remodeled very tastefully and appears staged, but apparently the owner actually lives as the place shows. With over 1700 sq ft finished plus a huge 1200+/- sq ft attic ready to sheetrock and remodel to your liking, with a little extra cash, this home can be your dream home of almost 3000 sq ft with full garage for 2+ cars. The usable backyard area could be bigger but it’s not easy to have everything in the city.
April 29, 2008
Everytime I drive to and from the Richmond-San Rafael bridge, I can’t help to think that the state’s most notorious inmates are residing on a piece of property with multi, multi, multi million dollar views. 
Like Alcatraz, San Quentin was probably built at a time where the location was considered more strategic, with little consideration how much the views and scenery would be highly prized decades later. Built in 1852, before the time of the bridges, the seclusion was a safe choice. Now, 150+ years later, the property is worth $80-100 million, making it the most expensive prison in the world, according to Wikipedia.
If you envy the views that Charles Manson has, there is an opportunity to share it - by living in Point San Quentin Village. This little and rarely known village is home to about 40 homes and a 10 unit condo complex. Yes, the main road dead ends at the prision’s main gate, but otherwise the community is relatively calm and peaceful. And did I mention the million dollar views and waterfront?
In this tiny enclave, rarely does a home come to the market, but Redfin has a current lisitng - 42 Main St, Larkspur is a remodeled 3 bedrooms, 3 baths with upclose stunning views. The asking price - $1,260,000. Do the views compensate for not so nice nieghbors?
For more info on Point San Quentin Village, read up on a great profile done by Marin Magazine.
April 29, 2008
Since the question never dies, as it’s not like 2+2=4, and the answer is never simple, I am revisiting the rent vs. buy conundrum facing San Franciscans who hope to trade in their “tenant” status for the hallowed title of “owner.” Recently, a blogger on TheFrontSteps.org, aptly going by the name AlwaysBuy, opined:
Renters are generally more pessimistic, less wealthy, less educated, and transient people with commitment issues. Anybody with 10 years of work experience and still renting is definiely behind the ball.
I feel sorry for people who were tricked into renting for the past 5 years while SF prices continue to go up.
Aside from being insulting, the comment isn’t very savvy, since we all agree that no blanket statements will correctly cover the disparate state of the market in SF’s different districts and neighborhoods. Equally annoyed, fellow blogger Submedian took up challenge here and came up with a list of recent sales showing actual depreciation.
Sunset Savaging
2100 27th ave
list: $674k
sale price 2006: $805k
diff: -$131k
Miraloma Park Mugging
24 Coventry St
list: $699k
sale price 2007: $754k
diff: -$55k
Bernal Depths
826 Peralta
list: $649k
sale price 2005: $655k
diff: -$6k
OH NOES!!1! in Noe Valley
169 Grandview
list: $699k
sale price 2005: $699k
diff: -$51k
Not So Excellent Adventures in Excelsior
940 Cayuga Ave
list: $580k
sale price 2005: $720k
diff: -$140k
Now sure, some areas are still showing appreciation, but keep in mind that the price increases will need to be substantial for you, the investor, to get back your down payment, monthly interest, closing fees, taxes, insurance, and maintence. And even if you are an uneducated and pessimistic renter, you should know enough to proceed with caution.
That said, the dream never dies either, the dream of owning. With that in mind, here are a few price reductions, and you’ll note they aren’t just from the expected struggling neighborhoods. This could be your chance then to get a bargain- if anything in SF can really be called that.
237 Greenwich, #A: Telegraph Hill studio TIC down from $529K to $499K
17 Abbey: 3/3.5 TIC in Mission Dolores down from $875K to $849K
68 Richardson: 1/1 SFH in the Marina down from $848K to $699K
2104 24th St.: 3/1.5 SFH in Potrero- this one is down, but not much- but note this is not the first time the place has been on the market, so bid accordingly. Was listed at $875 K on Feb 26, 2008; today it is listed at $874,500.
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Picture credit: Bay Area Housing Bubble
April 29, 2008
My previous post on Alameda, Albany and Emeryville sales sparked some conversation about sales stats. One of our readers, Parag, is interested in Alameda 3bd/2ba homes but states: “As a potential buyer, its pretty frustrating to see pices HIGHER now (at least for 3/2s) even though the ease of financing has gone away.” Intrigued I did a search for 3bd/2ba homes to see where current list prices are at, as well as looked up sales recorded in the past 3 months. Current list prices for 3bd/2ba homes range from $499,000 to $1,395,000; however most appear to be in the 600k to 700k range. Recent sales paint a similar picture with the below properties sales prices ranging from $643,000 to $888,888. Has anyone else found a trend in higher pricing around Alameda? Alameda folks, please do let me know!
Thanks to Philip Kaake’s site for April sold stats.
Alameda: Current Properties For Sale
402 Haight Ave. $669,000 3bd/2ba stucco built 1927 Previously sold in September 2005 for $670,000 so short-sale
1546 Broadway $550,000 3bd/2ba 1256 SF 1930s stucco interesting style, unusual craftsman: art deco-ish? Previously sold in 1996 for $203,000
1417 Page St. $700,000 3bd/2ba 1954 SF stucco craftsman; 116 DOM and being sold “as-is”; Reduced from $835,000; Last sale: $610,000 in August 2003
2830 Fernside Blvd. $658,000 3bd/2ba 1572 SF stucco with tiled roofing No price reductions recorded; Previous sale:
931 Magnolia Dr. $789,000 3bd/3ba 2396 SF 1960s contemporary; no price reductions listed; previously sold for $850,000 September 2005
390 Hollister Ave. $799,000 3bd/2.5ba 2219 SF 2005 new construction; no price reductions; previous sale: $729,500 April 2005
613 Haight Ave. $720,000 3bd/2.5ba 1809 SF A “duet” built in 1905; no price reductions or past sales history listed
1423 Willow St. $619,000 3bd/2ba 1142 SF Victorian built in 1897; Reduced from $679,000; previously sold in May 2005 for $620,000
Alameda Sold: Selected 3bd/2ba Sales Recorded Feb-April 2008
110 Sherwood Lane $795,000 3bd/2ba 1817 SF Sold Feb 2008
344 Beach Rd. $643,000 3bd/2ba 1536 SF Sold Feb 2008 Previous Sale: $596,000 May 2007
58 Shannon Circle $888,888 3bd/2.5ba 2205 SF Sold Feb 2008 Previous Sale: $277,000 Nov 1988
629 Sandalwood Isle $780,000 3bd/2.5ba 1998 SF Sold Feb 2008 Previous Sale: $100,000 Aug 2004
425 Coral Reef Rd. $702,800 3bd/2ba 1438 SF List Price: $738,000 Sold April 2008 Previous Sale: $625,500 in Nov 2005
428 Tucker Ave. $679,625 3bd/2.5ba 2035 SF List Price:$729,900 Sold April 2008 Previous Sale: $652,315 in Oct 2007
2904 San Jose Ave. $700,000 3bd/2ba 1968 SF List Price:$719,000 Sold April 2008 Previous Sale: $715,000 Oct 2006
1050 Otis Dr. $672,000 3bd/2ba 1837 SF List Price:$749,900 Sold April 2008
April 29, 2008
Affordable housing in Menlo Park is pretty much non-existent these days. Currently there are only 21 homes that are even under the $1mil mark. So I looked to the most likely place to find the least expensive housing in this town, which I believed to be the Willows neighborhood. This area is bound by Middlefield to the west, Highway 101 to the east, Willow Road to the north, and University to the south. The neighborhood has a small retail area (gas, supermarket, restaurant, etc.) along Willow, and easy access to the freeway. It is comprised of older single family homes on the north side of the neighborhood, and more condos/townhouses and apartments on the south side. (I found that the further southeast you go, the more rundown the neighborhood becomes.)
Driving around, I checked out the 3 homes currently available for under $1,000,000.
First up was 404 Durham, a 1200 sf three-bedroom, one bath single family home. It sits amongst like properties, predominantly single story and well kept. The neighborhood was very quiet on a Monday afternoon, with a few homes undergoing additions and remodels. The listing itself looked to be in good shape on a slightly oversized lot (7000 sf), with a new driveway of stone pavers, a fairly new roof, and new paint. Built in 1947, the interior has seen upgrades like canned lighting, dual-paned windows, remodeled kitchen and bath. The back sports a redwood deck and hot tub, as well as lawn and room for a garden. It has been on the market for just about 3 weeks and is currently listed at $899,000
Heading southeast, we get to 104 Haight Street and a small 900 sf home with only two bedrooms and one bath. The listing shows this as a fixer-upper, and it does look to be in less than desirable condition, with overgrown weeds, severely cracked driveway, and shoddy fence, it is located on a large 10,800 sf corner lot, meaning room to remodel, reconstruct or add on. However the downside here is that it is also one lot away from the freeway and its attendant noise; and even at 2pm on a Monday afternoon, this was apparent, as were the neighborhood roosters and their crowing. On the market over two months, this home is currently listed for $629,900.
Away from the freeway, heading southwest, we found a 3/2.5 townhouse at 135 E O’Keefe Street. This 4-unit complex begins the high-rise section of the neighborhood, where condos, townhouses, and apartments line both sides of the block. While the interior photos do show that this is a nice looking unit, the whole complex looked very old and dated to me, and the area itself borders on undesirable. This listing has been on the market 64 days, and has had one price reduction, from $799,000 to $759,000 (5%), but in my estimation it is still way overpriced. You can see for yourself this Sunday at an open house.
