SurveyKid: Great thinking. Goes to show that there are ways and means of keeping one step ahead of the game!

Something fun to watch on my Redfin Favorites list, is to see all the pulled listings come back on months later, at a lower price. I never remove the listings from my Favorites. I just let them go blank. But now that Spring has arrived: here they come. In Boston, in San Diego, in SF Bay.

--The Kid

Catsjellicle: I am furious on your behalf. What a way for a homeowner to play the market. I hope it backfires on them and I'm sorry your hopes were raised only to be so cruelly dashed.

Having said that I agree with Billy that you're well out of it in terms of doing business with people like that -- and I agree with Toady that you'll be back on your bike in no time.

In fact it sounds like you already are. Panoramic looks nice (I was up there on a hike this morning and it's a glorious area) and there will be a flurry of new listings coming onto the market over the next few weeks. Good luck and keep us posted!

No shame in renting. We are renting in SF and want to move to North Berkeley, and after looking at prices have decided that we will move over and rent before we buy. Renting comes with its own hassles, but right now it just seems like a safer, better bet. One thing I am sure of, there is not much appreciation that can be expected over the next 5 years. You may not see the declines that many have predicted (although that is still very possible), but there is no chance of real appreciation. Toady is right about the time horizon, unless this is a move you are going to make for 10+ years, then you are not missing out on the "investment" aspect of owning.

I beat myself up on this daily, but patience is a virtue and will eventually be rewarded.

to toady: i just looked at the 545k, panoramic way listing. it certainly looks interesting..i wonder if its 2 bath or 1 bath..the listing says both. we will certainly be looking into it.

thanks!! i look at the panoramic way listing and i am already feeling hopeful. house lust..what can i say? isnt it crazy how we are programmed to keep on looking for 'home'?

and many thanks to everyone else who said all the kind and encouraging words! not so blue anymore..:)

thanks...i suppose this is a lesson for me when i argued with tracey a while back that bidding wars wont occur in this market anymore.

i am not going to mention the actual address of the property. the way i see it, someone out there probably can afford to overbid for that house. and if they get it, good for them.

i am just a little upset about the way this system works. it beggars belief.

Personally, I would wait. But if you're looking for a home that you can live in for the next 10-15 years, there are deals to be had in your price range in Berkeley. And there will be lots more over the next month.

Don't despair. As a buyer with good credit and capital (I have to assume), you're in the driver's seat. If you have a good agent, you'll be out looking at more houses tomorrow.

And sometime in July, when you see 1946 Marin on the sold homes list at $749K, you'll look back on this and laugh.

at this point, i am regretting our decision to give up our apartment lease. i am wondering if renting IS better than owning afterall. i can understand a reasonable counteroffer. i still cant wrap my mind around the expected 50k bidding war and its not even a million dollar property. the neighbourhood seems like comfortably middle class and the property isnt fablously remodeled or anything.

if sellers expect a 50k bidding war in this market, i suppose its just not worth it for us.

Still lots of pretty unreasonable expectations from sellers in Berkeley. Nobody wants to believe they missed the free money train. I would be pretty irritated, especially when what it comes down to is a mere 6% difference. Greed.

But it is their loss. As David pointed out, increasing a list price in this market seems like a very bad idea. And you can take your $800K and buy one of any number of very nice homes coming on the market. Did you see 545 Panoramic? Just relisted at $799K after not selling for mid-800s last fall.

billy, no counter offer. before we submitted the offer, we decided that we were ready to examine and consider a counter offer if it came up.

and no, i wouldnt go back to do business with these folks.

@Catsjellicle

I assume we are talking about 1946 Marin here. I have not seen the property, but thought it looked reasonably priced for the location and the pictures looked pretty nice.

I can't hasten to guess as to why they made their decisions, but I can't stand agents/owners that think they can throw out a low ball price and expect a wild bidding war. Did they counter your offer? It doesn't seem to make sense to just pull it back and then re list. You probably don't want to do business with people like that anyway. I have learned that the hard way.

david, i am not sure its racism..but it was a thought.

i still cant believe that they refused our offer for no particularly good reason. we heard from our agent as to how we should make a high deposit, keep the absolute minimum of days for inspections etc and we were warned that the seller wont even consider our offer...so we followed all the instructions.

no counter offer from the seller either.

if they expected 50k over, why not just increase the asking price? it's just bizarre. i am still digesting. i suppose i'll find the whole thing amusing in a few days, but for now, i am bewildered.

Boy, the seller would have to be really really stupid to reject a seller due to race/etc. I mean, it's a stupid idea anyway, but to reject a serious, good offer in a declining market is also economically stupid.

whoa! something interesting happened to us. a certain house near the marin circle(ahem) went up for sale and were accepting offers yesterday. two offers came up. one of which was ours which made slightly over asking price just to play safe.

we find out today that the owner is going to pull the house out of the market because both the offers were 'disappointing' and that she will be relisting at 849k. i am surprised that anyone expects overbidding at or over 50k in this market. needless to say, i am seriously annoyed. i know what the seller is doing isnt illegal, but it still smacks of bad business ethics.

it'll be interesting to see if they are really going to relist it at the higher asking price. if not, it gets *really* interesting.

i am also wondering if discrimination is alive in certain parts of berkeley. maybe i am sensitive to it after being treated (in)differently during open houses. i suppose indifference is less racist than treating someone differently. of course, i cant prove it..just makes me very sad.

well..the search continues!

Paddy: It is indeed intriguing to see a significant number of homes selling for under $400K. Prompted by your comment, I plan to research this market segment further and will post anon. Thank you for joining the conversation.

Kaydee: Ask and you shall receive. Thanks Billy for the scoop on 1518 MLK.

Toady: What can I say? Such a wealth of information, as always. Being a real-estate fanatic is nothing to be ashamed of -- particularly in the safe context of this blog!

We went to 1518 MLK and it is a great property, huge back yard and very nicely done inside. They had an open house one Sunday, and received multiple offers, and that was it. I don't remember seeing a sign out front either, but it may have been there. We heard about it through friends who knew the owners. They asked $1,050,000.

I saw a few of these listings, so I can pass on some information.

1605 Woolsey was bank-owned. It was really difficult to arrange to see it. Someone had been camping (and relieving themselves) in the backyard. It had been recently and charmlessly remodeled. For some reason the kitchen took up about a third of the total square footage. But it had potential; an unfinished basement and a nice-sized lot. I think it originally listed at $540K, so somebody got a decent deal on a house that no one else wanted.

1534 Ashby was also bank-owned. It was foreclosed on in January 2007. Kim at Berkeley Housing Crash has it listing at $439,900 last September, but I know I saw it before that. I can't remember the original list price. Nice bones, pretty period details, and a big yard, but needed a lot of work and is right on a very busy street.

A few others I researched, but didn't actually view. 1112 Harrison I believe is actually a 1 bedroom TIC, and the buyer took out a loan for twice that sale amount. Public records show it as a two-unit building that last sold for $605K in 2004, so I think somebody bought it, split it, and sold half for high-300s/low-400s.

1110 Carleton listed for $575K in May 2007. It's a small house next door to an auto-repair shop that is on San Pablo Ave., so I think the final sale price is just a reasonable amount for a small house in a marginal location. Interestingly, the seller also recently listed a small house on Oregon for less than he bought it for. That would be an interesting backstory.

1115 Jones was described in its listing as a half-finished remodel, and it was apparently missing some important features, such as walls. If I may speculate, the transfer record looks a lot like a failed marriage. But as Philip said, we'll never know.

Sorry for the length. For some reason, I find this stuff totally fascinating, and I seem to be completely incapable of making succinct comments.

Ah the intrigue of the backstory. I wish I knew about many behind the scenes info on sales. The only way to really know is be one of the agents involved, one of the people making an offer or be the seller. If your an agent you don't want to be the one betraying any confidential information, the buyers are not too inclined to share and the sellers are usually gone and it's out of their minds. Paddy as a buyers agent I always ask the listing agent "what's the deal here", it's usually an interesting story. Agents may give other agents information that they may not be inclined to give out to the person in an open house. Another reason having a good agent helps.

Re: 1518 MLK ~ I had no idea it was FSBO until they put up a sign: "For Sale By Owner, Sale Pending". Uh......???? That seems like a really bad way to advertise. I drive by there multiple times each day and would have been very interested in that property if I had realized it was for sale. Did I just MISS the sign they had outside this whole time??

Tracey - do you have any info on the houses selling for under $400k (even under $200k!) which seems very low for Berkeley. Where these foreclosures reverting to the bank at auction? Or are they 'normal' private seller to buyer sales? Also, do you know what their listing prices were?

thanks for your blog! its very well done.

Allie: Aaah, the mysteries of home buying! A house for sale just needs one buyer and my supposition is that that right person didn't come along for a while. When they did, perhaps by sheer bad luck another interested buyer popped up and so began a bidding war. But this I am surmising. If anyone out there knows the skinny on 770 Spruce, please enlighten Allie and myself.

Tracey - why might a home on the market for over four months sell for over its asking price? Just curious....

Billy: I have no inside info on the sale price of 1518 MLK unfortunately. It will show up eventually in the weekly listings (as in the above post) and I'll watch out for it.

Good luck with your home hunt in Berkeley -- there are some deals around if you keep your eyes peeled!

Hi Tracy - Do you know what the FSBO property at 1518 MLK ever went for? I see that they have a sale pending sign out front.

Also, thanks for the blog, I am looking in Berkeley and love reading your insight.