Comments on: Is the Bottom Already Behind Us?

By: david.g

david.g — Thu, 08 May 2008 21:22:18 +0000

Exactly. People in his position can and do try to influence markets, but I don’t think he has the clout! He obviously has an agenda.

By: David

David — Thu, 08 May 2008 20:02:21 +0000

Yeah, I figured the guy was pumping the homebuilders he bought “at the bottom” recently.

By: david g

david g — Thu, 08 May 2008 06:22:16 +0000

Ha. This coming from a hedge fund manager. He is absolutely wrong. Plummeting sales and pricing does not stop on a dime.

Plus, a national bottom doesn’t mean much anybody. It’s the local bottom related to where you live that matters.

By: David

David — Wed, 07 May 2008 17:13:02 +0000

Prices are approaching, but only approaching, historical norms in the inner East Bay. Of course this guy is talking nationally, but nationwide, prices are also only approaching historical norms (price/income, price/rent). R.E. is not a bargain yet by any measure, it’s merely 10%-15% above historical trends in a lot of areas, including the inner East Bay, and I might posit nationwide too. Of course that means a 10%-15% drop in real prices are coming, likely over the next 12-18 months, which means a 7-12% nominal drop, or likely at least half of your down payment will evaporate over the next year if you buy now.
If you must buy now, at least you’re probably only slightly overpaying (except in SF&peninsula, where you’re significantly overpaying).

The evidence? His own numbers–sales numbers are still down huge. If it the market were rebounding, sales would be leveling off and possibly increasing. They’re not.

In any market, there are a few bargains. There are bargains now, and they are getting bought, once again proving that prices need to come down more to restore “normal” sales numbers.

By: Philip Kaake

Philip Kaake — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:48:17 +0000

Jenny P: This is an interesting article… do I believe it, not yet. However as an agent I can tell prices have come down and buyers start buying homes. It’s happening, activity is happening in my market and I know it is in other areas as well. I don’t think it will happen as fast as this guy predicts, but I also think if you are waiting for the bottom because you think you will get just that much better of a deal you may miss out on opportunities happening now. If anyone thinks they know exactly what is going to happen to this market they are probably speculating based on their own personal wishes.

By: sw

sw — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:35:25 +0000

The author of that article is referring to new home sales being at a bottom, not existing homes. Also, he’s very wrong.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/is-housing-crisis-over.html