May 5, 2008

Of Drug Deals and Dreams: SF’s “Affordable” Options

Would you live in the ‘Loin if you thought someday, it would be like living in Soho? According to the Chronicle, first time buyers are banking on just such a transformation, as they buy into Tenderloin developments with “pioneering spirit.” You’d need it, for the neighborhoods are not the only thing you’d have to make the best of. In the case of the recently converted (and sold out) complex at 83 McAllister,  ”The 60 ‘efficiency lofts’ would seem claustrophobic if it wasn’t for the 17-foot high ceilings and clever, modern design.”

4 8 erin4 Of Drug Deals and Dreams: SFs Affordable Options

Indeed, at approximately 500 square feet for an “affordable” low-400K price tag, together with the crime and stench of the area, that potential “transformation” of the ‘Loin can not come too soon.

But as one young buyer points out, “this is basically the only chance that someone like me [read: someone making moderate income]  could own a home in San Francisco. I…..decided to make the plunge.” This buyer, along with other locals, are working on the neighborhood, perhaps bringing in the energy needed to finally make  change most of us have heard for decades is coming, but has never arrived.

Realtors, ever clever, are attuned to this type of buyer. For example:

Realtor Suzanne Gregg of Vanguard Properties may have hit on the ultimate sales pitch: This isn’t a rough neighborhood, she said, it’s more like “Tenderloin chic.”

“I think some people kind of like it a little edgy,” she said. “We’re going to bill it as ‘SoHo in San Francisco.’ “

And who knows what will happen if a proposal to allow taller skyscrapers south of Market Street in San Francisco passes. The zoning plan “would allow as many as seven new skyscrapers to surpass the current 550-foot height limit in an area surrounding a planned 1,000-foot high-rise next to the new Transbay Terminal.” Such a move effectively shifts “downtown” from the Financial District to South of Market- smack in the center of smack/crack/crime central. 

Certainly, changes are in store.

Other edgy ‘hoods with “affordable” listings now:

——

Photo: An apartment at 83 McAllister, as seen on Apartment Therapy.com


  • Hayden
    Paying for a coffin, wither literally or figuratively. And paying too much
  • Yerba
    I saw my area (Yerba Buena) turn around with the installation of Yerba Buena, museums, and Metreon. Now it's a lot more desirable, and my place is worth double what I bought it for before the construction. You're right that anything can happen
  • Yah, you make sense. I feel for the people who buy in to these areas on the "New SoHo" type hype. They'll likely have to stay A LOT longer than they planned, certainly longer than they want to stay, in order to see appreciable profit.
  • David
    I see your logic. It's part of the same logic driving a TL purchase, which is that such a reasonably well-located spot in a completely gentrified (except for Bayview, etc) city should appreciate.

    I agree that there's a chance it might appreciate. However, at these prices, will it appreciate MORE than other places that you might reasonably invest in? This is certainly a purchase made with an eye to investment, as I can't imagine really enjoying living in that spot more than a less "colorful" locale.

    The thing with buying Harlem in the mid-90's was that it was priced at 1/4 or whatever of nearby property in Manhattan. (similar arguments can be made for parts of Brooklyn, or Bucktown in Chicago). As Alex points out, you can buy something similar already in a decent 'hood. And certainly you can on a $$/sq ft basis. There's no arbitrage opportunity here as far as I see it.

    Finally, you don't buy marginal 'hoods on the heels of a R.E. blow up. You buy it before the turnaround. Otherwise, you're holding the bag for several years as R.E. bottoms.
  • Alex, need a partner? That's my dream 'hood!

    Okay, so Toady and Dave, here's my thinking: obviously the Transbay Terminal construction will shift a lot of commerce and housing, and though it’s not IN the Tenderloin, living close to where you work is covenient, and the ‘Loin is close enough to the new construction: closer, say, then the inner-Sunset or Richmond or Cole Valley: you know, traditionally sought after and fairly nice ‘hoods. So things could change in that area. I’m certainly not one to hold my breath waiting for it, but I’ve seen a lot of changes around here in the last few years, South Beach being the most obvious. When peeople are willing to pay 400K plus to live in the TL right now, anything’s possible in the future.
  • Alexandra V.
    Yeah, you couldn't pay me to live there! If I could buy in the 400k range I'd get a Sunset TIC. ;p
  • David
    Yeah, I don't quite see the relevance of the SOMA skyscrapers to TL valuations. In any case, I enjoy the stench of the homeless everyday surrounding my financial district office building.

    Anna, sorry the "you" wasn't directed at YOU but at any sorry soul considering buying in that area. Only a truly provincial SFer who's never seen what can be bought elsewhere for that money would even consider paying that for the TL, that was my point in bringing up similarly-sized spots in nice areas of Manhattan.

    As Toady pointed out the TL has been awful forever. Now, it could change like Hell's Kitchen, ahem, "Clinton" in NYC, but why would it appreciate more than a same-priced, same-sized studio in a better part of Manhattan? If the TL were $100K, maybe. Otherwise, doesn't make sense. And I KNOW you could rent the Manhattan studio out for way more than the TL.
  • Toady
    I guess I don't understand how luxury high-rises in SOMA and Rincon would have any effect at all on the TL. SOMA certainly was a run-down, postindustrial wasteland until the 1980s, but I think Moscone Convention Center and all the commercial development that's happened down there since already transformed that part of the City.

    Am I missing something? None of the new high-rises that I'm aware of, proposed or under development, are anywhere near the Tenderloin.

    Has anything moved into the retail space at 83 McAllister? That used to be the Church of Scientology's SF franchise. If even the Scientologists have given up on that location, I would call that a bad sign for its future prospects.
  • Anna
    Toady and David, actually you're preaching to the choir because there's no way I'd buy into the TL. I like to leave the apartment without fear. That's why instead I don't buy anything, since though maybe I could afford it if my man would agree to try, I just don't see the logic in 400K boxes in the city's a-hole.

    Still, things will have to change there IF those skyscrapers go up by the Transbay Terminal. I realize the less savory elements have to go somewhere, but they can't stay under the foundation of a bunch of huge towers and such. Or can they? Your thoughts?
  • Toady
    Word. A "pioneer"? The TL has been the way it is for 100 years. How long are you planning on being alive?
  • David
    So, you're talking about Manhattan prices. Good Manhattan prices, not Harlem, for the TL? Get real. Absolutely, ridiculously, ludicrously overpriced. Period.

    Think you can't buy Manhattan for "the low 400's"?? You'd be wrong. There are 70 listings in Manhattan under $450K. Just one example:

    http://corcoran.com/property/l...

    Over 600 sq ft, in the upper East Side.

    Here's another

    http://corcoran.com/property/l...

    Only $429K, 550 sq ft.

    Feel like the West Side?

    http://corcoran.com/property/l...

    Nice pre-war apartment, 500 sq ft, $449K.

    The low $400's a stretch? Here's a spot in Manhattan, mid-East Side for $379K. 500 sq ft.

    http://corcoran.com/property/l...

    Why the **** would anyone pay more than Manhattan prices for the TL???????????????????????????????

    Get your head out of the...ahem...clouds, come back to earth and realize that there is no rational way to justify being a "pioneer" in a urine-soaked, open-air drug market third-world area for the same price as a same-sized apartment in a good area in what is truly the "capitol of the world." For Pete's sake, save up your money and buy here in a decent neighborhood. Don't pay a premium for the ghetto.
  • Marnie
    Forget crime on the streets: I'd murder my boyfriend in about a week if we tried to share 500 sq feet!
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