May 12, 2008

SF and Daly City: Best Way to Make Selling and Buying Safe?

time is money 3 SF and Daly City: Best Way to Make Selling and Buying Safe? A few days ago, Kathleen Pender of SF Gate announced that duration, duration, duration have become the three most important words in real estate, ousting long time champs location, location, and location.

If you bought a home in the last two years, it’s very probably worth less than you paid.

But if you bought four years ago, you’re probably still above water.

And if you bought eight years ago, you’re almost certainly sitting on a tidy profit, assuming you haven’t sucked every dollar of equity out of your home with a second mortgage or refinance.

This is definitely true in some parts of the Bay Area, and even some parts of the still strong SF market, which you can see in the real estate data charts here.

So, the upshot of this lesson to both would be buyers and would be sellers is to think of home ownership as long term investment, rather than attempting a very risky buy-and-flip strategy.

But location matters too: witness the very fact SF and Marin are still outperforming the rest of the Bay Area tells you that; and that some neighborhoods in each location are also suffering while others stay strong. And the lesson in this dichotomy is best put by regular reader and intelligent commentor, “david”:

One thing I do know–in a declining market, you want to “move up” to as nice of a neighborhood as you can afford, in order to both shield yourself from price declines and also because that nice ‘hood is probably more affordable. In an appreciating market, you want to buy or invest in marginal/border ‘hoods to take advantage of maximum percentage returns.

That said, here are a few listings in desirable neighborhoods that you may enjoy living in long enough to profit from your ownership.

SF

347 A Corbett Ave: 2/1 condo for $649K

719 Frederick St.: 2/1 condo for $649K

1444 17th Ave., #201: 2/2 condo for $789K

2112 12th Ave.: 2/1 SFH for $745K

1242 Sanchez St.: 2/1 condo for $779K

Daly City

93 Avalon Dr.: Bank-owned 3/2 SFH for $644,900

18 Wavecrest Dr.: Bank-owned 3/1 SFH for $536K

144 St. Marks Ct., #00034: Short-sale 4/2.5 SFH for $559,888


  • Mark

    Flipping has always been so dangerous, I'm surprised MORE people weren't burned doing it. It has happened all over the country and the world as well. Best best: stay awhile. That means, logically, buying in to a place you actually WANT to stay

  • Hayden

    That's what "david" said too though: only work with lower end areas when the market is appreciating currently. Right now it is not, not at least in a way we can rely on, so better to buy into the best 'hood you can afford

  • Red

    From an investment standpoint, you need to be patient. Wait until all hope is lost, or at least until there is break even on cashflow.
    If you must invest now, buy somewhere that has seen little appreciation and rental properties have cash flow. Buying into bad neighborhoods? remember, these are the last to go up.
    Currently the government has artificially lowered interest rates to prop up the economy; just wait until rates are back at >8% in to restrain inflation and see how long it takes for any appreciation to happen.
    There is nothing worse than putting in the enormous work and risk of being a landlord than bleeding money while doing so. There are other investments.

  • Anna

    SO you think, Red, from an investment stand point, makes more sense to buy into bad neighborhoods where prices are really low already rather than into better ones where prices may not have bottomed out at all yet?
    But if you plan to stay through the long haul, which property will end up more profitable?

    --I really don't know, so I am glad to hear everyone's thoughts here.

  • Red

    Hmm, can't say I agree with that david. This David is right on; the really nice places go down less, but note: they have just begun to drop:

    David said:

    SF will naturally be last to the party. Some R.E. prof at UCLA had a great map of LA back during the last blow-up from 1989-1997. The map showed just like now, the boom spread from the best neighborhoods to the worst, with the worst/cheapest showing the greatest percentage increase. Then during the bust the exact opposite happened–the worst/cheapest areas dropped first, the most and the fastest, while the best areas dropped last, the least, and the slowest.

  • Anna

    the areas I picked are either backed up on open space, have ocean views, have low crime and promximity to schools and transportation. Plus, if you plan to stay through the slump, a short sale or foreclosure could be great as you would most certianly spend less getting in the door.

  • Sara J

    What constitutes a desirable neighborhood in Daly CIty- looks they are all going to the bank!

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