July 15, 2008

Affordable Homes in El Cerrito

moeserdown Affordable Homes in El Cerrito

Little El Cerrito  is one of my favorite Contra Costa towns, with *two* BART stations, an amazing restored Art Deco movie theater, a Peet’s, a Trader Joe’s …. the list goes on. The last time I dared to suggest that home prices were dropping there, I was met with howls of fury. So let’s just say, here’s a sampling of affordable homes. (Photo: City of El Cerrito Web site.)

6400 Moeser Lane #5, El Cerrito: 2 bedrooms/1 bath, 751 sq ft, $360,000. Admittedly, the homeowners’ association dues are steep ($273), but it’s an end unit with a hill view! Close to BART and shopping!

19 Wildwood Place, El Cerrito: 2 bedrooms/2.5 baths, 1,448 sq ft, $438,000. Ooh, this place is a looker. It’s in the El Cerrito hills (classiest part of town!), has views of the Bay and is close to restaurants, shops & BART. Beautiful sun-drenched rooms and an open floor plan. Homeowners’ association dues are $410, though, ouch!

509 Bonnie Drive, El Cerrito: 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 3,437 sq ft, $499,000. This is described as a “fixer,” but you have to view the photos to grasp the enormity of understatement we’re dealing with here. In particular, there is a green carpet that will live on in my nightmares for some time to come, I fear. (All you readers seem to be sufficiently sophisticated that I needn’t add that carpets are easily replaced.)

6483 Conlon Avenue, El Cerrito: Before saying anything else: This is very close to the BART station, and BART does have a whistle. Now: 3 bedrooms/2 baths, 1,306 sq ft., $515,000. Looks just beautiful in the photos, with lots of light in the rooms. It’s across from a park and has a patio.

715 Ashbury Avenue, El Cerrito: 3 bedrooms/2 baths, 1,535 sq ft, $588,000. The house has two fireplaces, gardens and a deck and, like most homes in El Cerrito, is near shops and public transportation.


  • fornetti
    I do not believe this
  • Brandon
    I saw the carpet, it just looks like carpet that you might find in a frat house, covered with drink spills, stains, and cigarette ash. The carpet is really the least of your worries. Did I mention the loose quartz gravel that borders the tile in what I would call the "living room"? Who puts gravel as an interior decoration?
  • OMG! And I thought the carpet was one of the most hideous sights I've ever glimpsed inside a residence. Who knew there were worse horrors in store? Did you see the carpet, BTW? Are those weird patches mold and not just an ugly pattern?
  • Brandon
    I visited the Bonnie Dr. property on Sunday and the term "fixer" is laughable at best. The structure has fungus and mold in the walls, numerous water leaks, holes in the floor and walls, windows removed and boarded up, I could go on and on. The look of shear disgust/nausea on the faces of the other prospective buyers was priceless! It was literally making people physically ill to view /smell. Good luck with that one!
  • Gak, a 99.7% chance? Looks like I ought to investigate getting earthquake insurance. I don't want to end up like those Katrina victimes!
  • Brandon
    David, I think your analysis is spot on.

    I also can't help but wonder how many people consider the following tidbit when performing due diligence prior to purchasing in the East Bay:

    Scientists state there is a 99.7% chance of a major quake on the Hayward fault before you pay off your mortgage!
    http://findarticles.com/p/arti...

    I lived in the suburbs ~15 miles away from Northridge during the 1994 quake and I distinctly remember street after street of tract homes with "red tag" notices placed on the doors. The owners of these homes often didn't carry earthquake insurance and many fled the area in fear (did I mention the aftershocks that continued for several months afterwards?) Many of these houses were built only a few years prior and were sold at very depressed prices and individuals who had the means to complete structural remediation could find themselves a great deal.

    Of course, this won't be the case in the East Bay since most of the structures here are older and would likely suffer irreparable damage in a quake of the same magnitude.
  • Great stats from David, huge thanks! Well, seems like there's one positive trend here - increasing affordability. Though as you said, we don't know if the two sources define the Bay Area and affordable similarly, still, it's encouraging to see estimates jumping in double digits.
  • David
    "Affordability" has increased to ~25% in the "Bay Area" in Q1 of 2008
    http://www.ccsce.com/pdf/Numbe...

    Not sure on their definitions of "Bay Area" and not sure on their definitions of "affordability."

    Alameda cty's affordability is 34%, and CoCo, 31%, according to this:
    http://www.bizjournals.com/eas...
    However that assumes a 10% down payment, which is increasingly difficult to get (rumor has it that Countrywide is demanding a minimum 25% down payment now), and a 5.65% interest rate, which does not exist.

    CoCo cty's median household income is $87.5K; Alameda's significantly less, but assuming it's around there in the "homeowning 'hoods" (i.e. not East/West Oakland), a "median" household should be able to afford about a $400K house, assuming 10% down, and 6.25% interest rate (keeping PITI payment ratio to 36% of income, so you can't have other debts).

    Median prices aren't at $400K yet, however, for 30 years, price/income ratios have averaged ~6 for the Oakland/Fremont/Hayward MSA, therefore, according to the historical premium people have attached to houses here (for heaven knows what reason), one could expect the median price to be ~$525K, which is surprisingly pretty much on the mark for median prices, I reckon.

    However, with the current credit issues, I would bet we're going to overshoot that average and drop a bit more from here.
  • Smile. I assure you, Brandon, I'm on board with that; affordable to me is in the $250,000 range, possibly lower, to be honest. (I do own a home I bought in Richmond in 2000). I notice an old post on Bay Area Housing Bubble pegs the Bay Area affordability index at a pathetic 10 percent. This is a measurement of how many households here can afford to buy a median-priced home. That was during the boom, of course. Anybody got more current figures? (The post I'm referencing: http://bayarearealestatebubble...
  • Brandon
    Sure, if you consider paying > $35k/year in mortgage payments, property taxes, and maintenance "affordable". The prices are not low enough yet...
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