August 18, 2008

Bay Area: 7 Things Homebuyers Should Know (?)

main picture Bay Area: 7 Things Homebuyers Should Know (?)We homebuyers hear an awful lot about the top 5, top 10, top 20 things we should know. Frankly it all gets a bit much. Still, the lists are ever fascinating, as they seem to contain– in neat chunks– the secret to one of the most mysterious processes first time buyers have ever faced.

This July, ’08  list, 7 Things Buyers Should Know, comes from Paul Kedrosky, blogger and author of Infectious Greed who is also a mortgage lender at a bank.  The list is interesting in that in some areas, it diverges from what other lists have told us. Read on:

1. 6 months ago is ancient history. What your neighbor sold his house for 6 months ago doesn’t matter.   What the seller was asking for the house 6 months ago doesn’t matter.   What matters is what the market will support today.

Does this though imply you should not consider price reductions if a home on the market for over 6 months? Certainly knowing the history of a home’s price gives you some advantage.

2. Don’t worry so much about what you paid for your house. Instead, look at the difference between what you can expect to sell your house for and what it’s going to cost you to buy the new one that you want.  

3. Now is not the time for do-it-yourselfers. When the inventory levels are, depending on property type and area, any where from twice as much as is healthy…..to 750% as much inventory as there should be….. you need to find a professional to help you navigate the markets and get your house noticed.   I’m not, frankly, just talking about calling the Realtor who sold the house up the street.  I’m talking about calling a high caliber professional who knows what it takes and can really give your house the attention that it needs.  

This would seem to be a tip for homesellers, not buyers. It also  goes on to link to specific Realtors by name (deemed qualified), so it may not be entirely objective in what I can’t help but feel is a slam on less traditional DIY type real estate services.

4. Any interest rate that starts with a 6 is a good number. …..From 1971 to 1998, we did not see any mortgage rates that started with a 6.   Frankly, we’ve gotten spoiled in an era of cheap credit and we need to keep things in perspective.

This is interesting, and a good point for buyers to really consider.

5. There is a Tangible Difference in working with a true mortgage professional.  I’m not talking about the difference between a mortgage broker…..or a mortgage lender at a bank…..   I’m talking about the difference between someone who can help you navigate the changing environment that we’re in.  

6. Don’t buy a house today if you aren’t going to stay there at least 7 years. That’s right, a mortgage lender is telling you that if you don’t have at least a 7 year time frame in mind, you shouldn’t buy a house right now…… If the market drops another 5% over the next year and then stays the same for two years, it’s going to take 7 years for you to recoup the 5% loss and then build up enough to pay the 6% Realtor’s fees when you sell and make a little profit too.   Long term, the value of real estate investments is very solid, but this market has spread things out a bit longer.

7. It really is a good time to buy a house. No, I’m not turning into a National Association of Realtors choir boy.   If you go into the transaction with the right mindset (long term investment), with a talented group of professionals (Realtor, lender, inspector and accountant) backing you up, and you remain analytical about the financials and keep the emotions from forcing decisions, I firmly believe that you’ll find yourself very glad that you made the move you made.  

This last bit might be the most controversial, at least here in SF, where some people believe prices have yet to bottom out. Of course, others expect no such downturn. Still, the idea to stay awhile instead of try to flip is solid.

I’m interested in reader reactions, or “homebuyer tips” that might have been neglected here. Got any?

Photo credit: First Time Buyer Programs


  • David
    Again, who cares about SF? take a look at other towns around the Bay, or move further afield. There are plenty of nice cities and towns in the USA, seriously.

    There's no objective, rational reason for many SF areas/R.E. to be as expensive as Manhattan. Therefore it will drop. It might not drop to be "affordable" to the median income (I find it unlikely, as again SF is so unaffordable, even if it dropped quite a bit, I doubt many teachers could buy in SF proper).

    Asher--Try Alameda or some other family-friendly town. SF sucks for kids, as demonstrated by the population stats. People vote with their feet. No way in hades I'd live in SF with my 3 year old--Muni's enough to give me nightmares.
  • Anna
    Asher, hardly! I am one of you. I have just about given up on trying to buy here, as a teacher; my blog is usually focused on the situation for the renter who wants to buy but is simply priced out of the market.

    The "it's time to buy" line is not mine, but rather one I quoted from a broker who says it is a "great" time. As usual, his ideas do not envelope the majority of us, especially in SF, where the majority can hardly afford to just rent.
  • asher hawke
    As a single father to an 18th month old (read: one income and a lot of out going money) all this talk of falling prices is still a fantasy. I can't afford a home in a nice area with good schools in SF, and never will be able to. So, I guess it is a good time to buy if that 1,000,000 home is now 800,000. But for a single parent, that information does me little good. It is like Redfin has forgotten folks like me still are out there.
  • Colin
    Indeed Frank, but I didn't state that _it is not_ a good time to buy did I?
  • Frank
    You make a carte blanche statement yourself, Colin, assuming the original poster had no agenda other than a self serving one, and he may indeed be correct that IF people intend to ride out the market, this is a good time to buy. Saying it IS NOT is just as limiting.
  • Colin
    Firstly, the advice makes no mention that things could vary by area - it makes a carte blanche statement that "it really is a good time to buy". Secondly, what percentage of properties do you think doubled in value between '05 and '07 or anything like it? I'm betting it's so miniscule it's meaningless. Anecdotes like this really aren't helpful in determining anything.
  • Anna
    to be fair, couldn't it vary on area? I mean, I read about a guy buying a 3/2 SFH in Maxwell Park (Oakland) for $197K-- sold for over 400K in 2007... for him it was a great time to buy, no?
  • Colin
    It's the normal self-serving pap from the real-estate industry. I bet he was saying it was a great time to buy two years ago as well.
  • Anna
    And Nika, thanks: will check out the site.
  • Anna
    I too expect some fallout from those 2010-2011 mortgage resets. It'll come sooner than people expect...
  • David
    4 most expensive words in English:"It's different this time."

    It's never different; R.E. in SF WILL drop. It's merely a matter of time. My personal prediction is that we'll see significant strain in SF when the bulk of Alt-A mortgages reset in 2010-2011.

    All markets revert to the mean, but they don't do it by maintaining a plateau; they do it by dropping as people see the decline and go to sell to lock in shrinking profits.

    Same thing will happen in SF as the East Bay's seen.
  • Nika
    Buying a house is a serious decision. It is the largest purchase one has ever made in his life. It is not an easy task to find an ideal place to live. Recently I have come across one interesting service http://climate.fizber.com/ With the help of climate watch homebuyers can check what the climate is like in another town or city before they move there.
blog comments powered by Disqus
close