Noe Valley: Look Beyond the Stroller to the Pot of Gold

A year ago I wrote:

I have friends, single friends, mostly, who refuse to go to Noe Valley. They tell stories of being shoved aside in the Cheese Shop by the more determined hand of a young mother intent upon that Dutch Edam sample for the mouth of her squalling child. They claim to bear scars from unfortunate entanglements with baby strollers at the intersection of 24th and Sanchez. But really, these stories are exaggerations- if not complete fabrications. You are not, in fact, required to have kids to settle in this neighborhood. Of course, it might be a good idea to at least like the little guys since they’re ubiquitous here; Noe Valley is one of the most child-friendly areas in San Francisco.

A year later, Noe is also one of the hottest, real estate-wise. Any decent blog will have postings and comments confirming that Noe homes command a serious premium (like this one at Socketsite or this one– via The Front Steps– about a complete, falling down wreck that sold for $25K over its 1.02 million asking). And for good reason: Noe enjoys a centralized city location, some of our better weather, gorgeous single family homes of classic San Francisco architecture, low crime, great shopping and miles of excellent restaurants.

Using Redfin’s new Neighborhood features, I explored Noe’s market trends. The least expensive recent sale was a condo at 317 29th that sold for $701K, almost twice what it was purchased for in ‘98. Even a condo purchased in ‘02 was worth much more: 1044 Sanchez was purchased for $770K back then and was sold for $1,150,000 this July.

Seems you can’t go wrong in Noe, though one has to wonder if such appreciation can continue. The least expensive listings (also a searchable feature on the new Redfin) are studios and 1 bedrooms like this one at 141 Duncan, a tiny 1/1 TIC for $372K and this 1/1 condo at 1257 Dolores St., #A for $629,900. On the other end, the most expensive run from over a million to well over several million. You can search those too if you’re in the market.

Interestingly, one of those “most expensive” also made the “reduced” list, so properties are not immune to having to come down a bit, even in the hallowed Noe Valley. For instance, this gorgeous 4/3.5 SFH at 4086 25th is now $1,999,000, down from $2,395,000 (pictured below).

Still, 2 million is a nice chunk of change for the seller, so in general, we can safely say this pocket of real estate has not much suffered. As to whether buyers now can expect the same kind of profit, I can’t say; but it is hard to imagine who will be able to afford Noe in 10 years if it continues to appreciate like this.