Comments on: Redfin Readers Call it Perfectly – More Price Drops to Come

By: Janis Mara

Janis Mara — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 03:04:51 +0000

Hahahahaha excellent point! Inch by inch, step by step, price drops work their way in toward San Francisco. When will the market turn? We don’t know when, but we know it will (not that I wish this on anyone, of course).

By: David

David — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 20:17:58 +0000

Yeah, dg. 4 most expensive words…”it’s different this time”

whoops.

By: dg

dg — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 07:07:24 +0000

hey Janis, thanks for having me.

David, I agree with what you are saying. 2/3 of the way down for the most part sounds about right, as an aggregate anyway. I am still waiting out the coming decline in SF. I love how some people still think it’s gonna hold up! (We are different here in SF!)

By: Janis Mara

Janis Mara — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 03:17:53 +0000

Ah, thanks, David, breathing a sign of relief over here! While you and Mark may differ somewhat on the severity of this downturn, seems like the two of you have stellar records in dealing with the housing market.

Mark, be sure to keep us up to date on how your house hunt goes. My impression is that when you decide to buy, that should be the “go” sign for all of us

By: David

David — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 04:48:46 +0000

Roubini has good enough points, but he’s seriously too negative. I’m certainly no housing bull, but long-term price/rent ratios (over the past 30+ years) nationwide averaged about 15 (over 20 in the Oakland MSA). We’re not that far off now, maybe another 10-15% nationwide. Sure we could always overcorrect (in fact it’s likely), but most places have seen 2/3 or so of the nominal price declines.

We’ll have the worst of the 70′s sure–eroding real wages coupled with tightened credit (so that you can’t leverage yourself out of inflation with depreciating debt), but it’s not a great depression. The 70′s sucked, sure, but it wasn’t the ’30′s.

By: Janis Mara

Janis Mara — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 21:08:37 +0000

How nice to see from you, dg! and thanks! I’m shaking in my boots for fear Roubini’s forecasts come true in their grim entirety.

By: dg

dg — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 08:04:40 +0000

Mark, good info. I follow Roubini too. He is undoubtedly known as an outcast by many mainstreamers, but one cannot argue with his record of forecasting. Although very grim, it is quite good!

Good job on holding off on buying that Brentwood house!

By: Janis Mara

Janis Mara — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 02:44:59 +0000

Mark:
You succeeded with the second URL, the one to the New York Times article. It came across as a live link.
Based on their public remarks, which of the presidential hopefuls do you think might do best handling the horrific crisis foreseen by Dr. Roubini?

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 23:12:02 +0000

OK, one last try for the links Janis requested with plain text. I removed the http:// this time to try and get it through. Also, can someone tell me how to post links on this blog, assuming that is possible?

Nouriel Roubini Barrons article:

online.barrons.com/article/SB121763156934206007.html

NY Times Article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html

Mark

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 22:24:25 +0000

I don’t think HTML works so here are the Barrons and NY Times Nouriel Roubini links in plain text:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html

and

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121763156934206007.html