September 30, 2008

Case-Shiller Index Released Today

down house Case Shiller Index Released TodayThe results from July are in, my friends. The monthly Case-Shiller report, which tracks changes in the value of residential housing, covers 20 metropolitan areas in the United States, with three of those being in California: San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego.

Overall, housing values are down about 1% over June of 2008, but six of the twenty markets gained value in July: Atlanta, Boston, Denver, Detroit, Minneapolis, and Dallas. Last month this positive number was 9, with Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York falling off and Detroit making its first uptick since June of 2007. Within our own fair state, Los Angeles took a 1.7% downturn, with San Diego and San Francisco both coming in -1.9%. The big losers this month were Las Vegas and Phoenix, a mantle they cannot seem to shake.

San Francisco has seen a downturn in all but two months since July of 2006. March and April of 2007 rebounded just a wee bit, we’ve been on a freefall ever since, dropping 4.2% from July 06 to July 07 and another 24.9% between July 07 and July 08. That’s a big OUCH!

If pricing follows last year’s lead, December, January and February should be good months to buy, with big drops in housing values taking place. But the current credit crisis and the election will have an impact…we just don’t know what kind as of yet.

Recent Sweet Digs Posts:
Searching for the Elusive Bottom: Kinda Sorta Good News


  • coco
    Yes and homes in the Monterey area are getting back to the 80s prices...as it should be really...around $200K for an average dump!
  • Congrats on the home, MD. Will keep my fingers crossed for you. Glad you were able to find something to suit your needs and your budget.

    I was just investigating retirement towns in San Diego County and found a home that had been reduced more than 50% since listing in February. So what you are saying isn't as insane as people one thought it was. I think realism is starting to set in.
  • David
    Sounds about right, and in thinking with the idea that we're about 2/3 or maybe even 3/4 of the way there in most bay area locations.
  • MD Account
    Whoops -- my error. In a severe situation, the prediction was for a 58% total drop, not 52%.
  • MDAccount
    In a conference call with investors after their takeover of WAMU, JP Morgan Chase detailed their analysis of the CA housing market. From "peak to trough" they expect CA housing to lose %44 of its value; if the recession worsens, their estimate is 48%, and in a severe situation, 52%.

    I'm (FINALLY) in contract on a home here in Vallejo - contingent on inspections - that is very close to that 44% loss, and it is not an REO or short sale -- it's a 3/2 in pristine condition in a great neighborhood.

    Even if it isn't the bottom of the market, I think we're most of the way there in Solano County. All of this, however, can change in an instant if the credit market doesn't unfreeze.
  • David
    no one could have predicted this *snort*

    R.E. always goes up, especially in California, if only you ignore the recent bust, the 89-96 bust, etc etc.

    Oh well.
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