Comments on: Case-Shiller Index Released Today

By: coco

coco — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 18:11:09 +0000

Yes and homes in the Monterey area are getting back to the 80s prices…as it should be really…around $200K for an average dump!

By: susan.brady

susan.brady — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 23:33:05 +0000

Congrats on the home, MD. Will keep my fingers crossed for you. Glad you were able to find something to suit your needs and your budget.

I was just investigating retirement towns in San Diego County and found a home that had been reduced more than 50% since listing in February. So what you are saying isn’t as insane as people one thought it was. I think realism is starting to set in.

By: David

David — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:44:51 +0000

Sounds about right, and in thinking with the idea that we’re about 2/3 or maybe even 3/4 of the way there in most bay area locations.

By: MD Account

MD Account — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:22:18 +0000

Whoops — my error. In a severe situation, the prediction was for a 58% total drop, not 52%.

By: MDAccount

MDAccount — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:21:02 +0000

In a conference call with investors after their takeover of WAMU, JP Morgan Chase detailed their analysis of the CA housing market. From “peak to trough” they expect CA housing to lose %44 of its value; if the recession worsens, their estimate is 48%, and in a severe situation, 52%.

I’m (FINALLY) in contract on a home here in Vallejo – contingent on inspections – that is very close to that 44% loss, and it is not an REO or short sale — it’s a 3/2 in pristine condition in a great neighborhood.

Even if it isn’t the bottom of the market, I think we’re most of the way there in Solano County. All of this, however, can change in an instant if the credit market doesn’t unfreeze.

By: David

David — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 17:53:49 +0000

no one could have predicted this *snort*

R.E. always goes up, especially in California, if only you ignore the recent bust, the 89-96 bust, etc etc.

Oh well.