September 30, 2008

Home Prices Hold their Own as New Listings Flood the Market

There has been a rush of new listings on the Berkeley market this past couple of weeks. On one day alone I counted 11 newly listed homes in my Redfin update email.

My assumption is that people are getting their houses out there before the winter sets in. The economic meltdown will also be playing a part — if you’ve lost your job or a huge slice of your pension has been wiped off the slate, downsizing on your home and stashing some cash under your mattress sounds like a good idea right now.

It will be of some comfort to home sellers to know that, at least over the past month or so, prices are holding their own in the city. Check out Bob Blumberg’s monthly sales report for August and look closely at the “list price versus sales price” percentages — a majority are comfortably close to 100%, with many in excess of that.

The tables below show two weeks’ worth of homes sold in Berkeley in September (weeks ending 21 and 28).

 Home Prices Hold their Own as New Listings Flood the Market

 Home Prices Hold their Own as New Listings Flood the Market

Let’s look at how these homes fared in terms of ticket versus closing price:

10% UP: 699 Hilldale Avenue, a 2/1 1930s home with inner courtyard and partial views, sold for $810,000 on a list price of $735,000.

 Home Prices Hold their Own as New Listings Flood the Market2% DOWN: 3122 Eton Avenue (pictured right), a brown-shingle duplex with 2+/1 upstairs and 3/1 down and a two-car garage, sold for $1,170,000 on a list price of $1,198,000.

8% UP: 76 Plaza Drive, a 1961 3-bed one-level in a pricey neighborhood, sold for $1,285,000 on a list price of $1,195,000

SPOT ON: 1481 Campus Drive, a 3/2 mid-century “livable light fixer” in the north Berkeley hills, did take almost a year to sell, but it went for $750,000 on a list price of $749,000.

12% DOWN: 1531 Oregon Street, a 3/2, 1,294 sq ft home, sold for $350,000 on an asking price of $399,000.

3% DOWN: 1357 Northside, a 3-bed home unfortunately associated with a heartbreaking family murder, perhaps understandably, sold for $599,000 on a list price of $620,000.


  • Toady
    For a project like that, one has few options, and thus few opportunities to screw things up. So it's no more ambitious than

    1. Close escrow
    2. Call contractor
    3. Wait three weeks
    4. Write a check
    5. Move in

    The rest of the house is in remarkably good condition for sitting on top of a 100-year-old brick foundation.
  • Toady: Congratulations. You are a braver person than me taking on what sounds like an ambitious project. But it sounds like you know what you are doing.

    BB: Does this inspire you or scare you off even more?!
  • Toady
    Prices throughout Berkeley have been surprisingly resilient, but there definitely are deals to be had if you can be flexible, use your imagination, and put in some leg work. We're about to close on a nice big house with income units in Berkeley. After we put a new foundation under it, we'll be out about $258/sf.

    Good luck!
  • BB: I really don't think there is cause to be frightened. If you do your homework there are good deals to be had in the Bay Area now, even in Berkeley.

    This is particularly true if you are willing to put some TLC into your new home. Fixers are more competitively priced than ever at the moment.

    Good luck with your search.
  • BB
    I'm a buyer, and I want prices to go down, but this is scary. In 6 months we are all going to be stunned at the price drops. I'm waiting 3-4 more years before buying, maybe...
  • BJ: If you are a regular reader, you'll know that most of the time I write for and about prospective buyers. Then occasionally I remember that a lot of us are prospective sellers too, by definition, and that I should cater to them too!

    I agree with you that it would be nice to see some softening of the market, and I think broadly speaking it is happening -- even in Bay Area hot spots like Berkeley.

    And, given the current news headlines, I believe you definitely should not "quit hoping".
  • bj
    "It will be of some comfort to home sellers to know that, at least over the past month or so, prices are holding their own in the city."

    No comfort to home buyers! I hate to be the opportunistic type, but I keep hoping things will get more affordable in the inner Bay Area. Maybe someday or maybe I should quit hoping.
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