Comments on: Home Prices To Bottom Out By Late 2009 But Some Can’t Wait

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By: Mark

Mark — Sun, 07 Sep 2008 02:42:24 +0000

There was a great post on one of these blogs where Jenny P calculated the ‘break-even’ point.
http://sfbay.redfin.com/blog/2008/08/mortgage_rates_up_home_prices_down_is_what_youre_paying_really_lower.html

She found that the total paid for the house remains about the same if the increase in rates is about 1/10 of the decrease in in the price. (E.g., a 9% price drops and a rate increase of 0.9%)

The other thing to think about, however, is that even if the a rise in rates causes the monthly payments and/or total paid to be the same: a lower purchase price means (a) Lower property taxes and (b) The opportunity to refinance to a lower rate in the future, should rates eventually return to the lower level.

By: David

David — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:36:18 +0000

I used to assume that rates would be higher next year, now I’m not so sure. Inflation will likely subside as the comparison in 2009 will have (hopefully) $100 oil versus $140 oil in the first half of this year. If banks can steady themselves, and the Fed rates stay where they are, mortgage rates might be flat or even drop from here. As was posted earlier, it’s better though to buy a lower-price with a higher mortgage rate and refi later than buy a high-price with a low rate and be stuck if home values fall.

By: Tracey Taylor

Tracey Taylor — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:00:04 +0000

SW: Interesting perspective. You could be right, but I bet those people who are selling now in order to limit losses wish they had bitten the bullet a year ago, or even six months ago. That’s the sometimes brutal nature of the real-estate guessing game.

First-timer: Very good question. And I don’t know the answer. Any financial forecasters/savvy real-estate observers out there care to respond?

By: First-timer

First-timer — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 20:43:37 +0000

I keep hearing about prices still dropping but what about rates. Yes I may be able to get a lower purchase price on house if I wait another year, but what about this great first time home buyer rate I’m able to get now, will that still be around in a year or do you think the rates will be higher or even lower? Will rates drop as well? Thanks in advance for your replies, I love all the market savvy readers Redfin has.

By: sw

sw — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 20:17:07 +0000

My guess is that a lot of the people selling right now are smart people that understand the market. They are selling now before prices decline further.

Prices adjust slowly and we are still a long way off from the historical norm.