Searching for the Elusive Bottom: Kinda Sorta Good News

Considering how badly things are going on the economic front, the latest forecasts for Contra Costa County and the East Bay seem downright cheerful: a “shallow but long downturn” lasting into 2009, according to the Stockton-based Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific.

Given the meltdown some two weeks ago, hey, a “shallow” downturn sounds just peachy to me. The reason for the long tail? The housing-related ailments that plague the economy here are spreading to other sectors, Jeffrey Michael, director of the center, told the Contra Costa Times.

I’ve been thinking there’s gonna be another Great Depression and it’s not like I’m alone. Frequent commenters and very smart guys david and Adam Schwartz didn’t seem to quarrel with my conclusion in an earlier post. (Am I right, guys? Hope I didn’t mischaracterize.)

Compared to my fears, these predictions seem downright upbeat. Could we be approaching the bottom? Considering the jaw-droppingly low prices of homes in many parts of Contra Costa, it seems likely. I just found a house for sale in Richmond for $178,000 and a house for rent in that same area for $1450. At 5 percent interest on the mortgage, couldn’t you buy this and rent it for a positive cash flow?

Bargains in Richmond:

2501 Gaynor Avenue, Richmond: 3 bedrooms/1 bath, 1,138 sq ft, $179,000. Hardwood floor, fireplace, listing says the place gets a lot of light. The outside looks lovely, but there’s only one dark photo of the bathroom (the bathroom? Eh?), so considering the low price, this might require a healthy dose of caveat emptor.

2121 Gaynor Avenue, Richmond: 3 bedroms/1.5 baths, 1,431 sq ft, $299,000. While the shockingly low-priced house above could turn out to be low-priced for unfortunate reasons, this place looks really good in the photos. It’s a white split-level home with, the listing tells us, a balcony off one bedroom. Couple of things to keep in mind: It’s about a half-block on the wrong side of 23rd Avenue, which is a sort of dividing line between relatively safe streets and unsafe ones; and the listing agent is related to the seller.

2546 Clinton Avenue, Richmond: 4 bedrooms/2 baths, square footage not available, $299,000. This is a two-story pale blue house that looks charming from the outside. The interior photos, which could be used as examples in a “How Not To Stage a House” lesson, at least seem to indicate that it’s not falling apart inside, or at least not visibly. The kitchen *seems* to have one o’ those vertical door stainless steel fridges I personally lovelovelove, though hard to be sure thanks to the pieces of paper taped to it; kitchen also has what appear to be natural wood cabinets and the canonical granite countertops under the clutter.

533 28th Street, Richmond: 2 bedrooms/1 bath, 999 sq ft, $280,000. This is quite the Mystery House. It’s in the best location of all four of these properties, and looks lovely in the exterior photos. The listing tells us there’s a “great studio in back of home, non-conforming yet-perfect for guests or inlaw.” Wow! However, the mystery: No interior shots and “other disclosures” (call-see agent). Uh oh. Intriguing: is there a meth lab inside? Squatter with pitbulls? (Photo of the bottom by macsurak on flickr.)