Will Superhero SF Real Estate Prices Finally Fall from the Sky? How Far?
We’ve enjoyed a pretty bullet proof status here in our pretty little city, our housing market staying (mostly) strong while to the east and south, prices plunged.
But with the latest stock market news and the fear surrounding the proposed Government bailout, will SF real estate finally prove to have a chink in its metal?
Kenneth Kohlmyer, over at the Frontsteps blog, investigated “the have we hit bottom thing” in his recent blog, analyzing some data that shows a trend toward lower prices on homes sold than last year at this time. Looking at Districts 3 and 10 in particular, he writes:
In fact, in areas 10 and worst of 3 there were four more sales this year than last, at 10% cheaper.
Areas 10 alone had four more sales this year, 42 over 38, and cost 423 a foot as opposed to 515 last year. Average sales were 559K this year, 718 last.
His thoughts echo those of Carolyn Said, of the Chronicle. In her article, she notes the general punch in the face the Bay Area has suffered, and asserts that this time, not even SF has been able to duck the blow.
…..foreclosures made up 8.6 percent of San Francisco resales. San Francisco had the smallest decline in resale median price compared with a year ago: It was down 12.1 percent to $780,000. Still, it was noteworthy that even the best-performing county underwent a double-digit price decline.
Further pushing our market down is the higher standards for issuing jumbo loans, even to qualified buyers (and we can all agree they should never have been issued to anyone else). Obviously, in an area where so much of the housing for sale is well over the jumbo loan mark, buying is going to get harder; thus selling will too.
Does this mean prices will come down? Will SF hit bottom? How severe will the impact be?
