Archive for October, 2008
October 28, 2008
Dear Bay Area Sweet Digs Readers,
As part of changes already announced two weeks ago, Redfin is changing up Sweet Digs to focus the format on proprietary, leading-edge indicators of what is happening to home prices in the Bay Area.
Up to now, we had tried to provide a personal review of individual homes for sale in the area, but as a broker and an MLS member, we were not in an ideal position to be objective about other brokers’ properties. We also found that the scale of the Bay Area required an army of writers.
The new format will largely focus on publishing pricing data to which we have unique access:
- Broker-only data on transaction-volume, median-price and inventory trends;
- Broker-only data on sale-to-list ratios by neighborhood;
- Redfin-only price-drop data, showing what neighborhoods have the highest fraction of price-reductions;
- Redfin-only reports on shifting search traffic patterns and price parameters;
- Local agent round-ups about how current-week offer dynamics anticipate pricing shifts;
- Analysis of Case-Schiller, Census and National Association of Realtor data.
We have been preparing a change in format for several months, informed by a survey many of you completed earlier this summer, so we have reason to believe that you’ll like the new Sweet Digs.
And we know you’ll keep foraging for all types of real estate information on your own.
Many of the writers who contributed hyper-local neighborhood and home reviews to Sweet Digs are up to the same tricks, on newly launched blogs of their own. The great Tracey Taylor, for one, is already up and running with an East Bay real estate blog, with continued support for Sweet Digs via cross-linking and occasional cross-posting.
We’ll keep you posted on other new real estate blogs as they launch. For now, we just wanted to say thanks to the folks who helped us get Sweet Digs this far, for your dazzling wit and insight, your verve and dedication to your craft. And thanks to our readers for your steady support!
The new, more analytical blog posts start later this week. If there’s a particular type of analysis you’d like to see, just leave a comment to let us know.
Regards, Glenn
Glenn Kelman, Redfin CEO
October 22, 2008
We’re all hurting right? The economic meltdown has affected us all in one way or another, directly or indirectly.
Well, perhaps not all of us. I hear that a certain homebuyer, feeling no compunction to bother with the tedious nitty gritty of mortgage negotiations, put down a cool $2.1 million cash — yes cash – for 2946 Russell Street this month. This 3/3.5, 3,400 sq ft Prairie-style home in The Elmwood listed at $1,950,000 but was no sooner on the open market than it was snapped up (for 8% over asking).
It seems to be part of a mini-trend, with a handful of $2m homes selling in the vicinity: 2905 Garber Street (above left), also Prairie style and also 3,400 sq ft (4/3), has its first open this Sunday, price: $1,925,000 ($599/sq ft). And nearby 59 Domingo Avenue (above right) also Prairie, also priced at $1.9m, swiftly went into contract after hitting the MLS a couple of weeks ago.
For us mere mortals, I would recommend the following two reasonably priced homes in the Thousand Oaks neighborhood:
505 Curtis Street (right) is 2/2, 1,100 sq ft bungalow on a tree-lined street bordering Thousand Oaks but actually in Albany, with a “sun drenched kitchen”, French doors to a deck and garden and a separate studio space with a bath, built with permits. Price: $699,000 ($635/sq ft).
858 Peralta Avenue: this 2/1, 1,004 sq ft Berkeley bungalow has been completely remodeled and comes with a large kitchen, deck and garage. Price: $699,000 ($696/sq ft).
Mosey on down there on Sunday — I gather cash in hand is not mandatory.
October 15, 2008
The number seven has been associated with many things. It’s the series of winning numbers on a jackpot machine. It’s the number that takes you out at the craps table (I was recently in Vegas … can you tell?). There’s the seven sins (which I’m not sure what they are). I’m sure you can think of more. 
Now the number 7 is the magic number you should take into account when shopping for a new home. A New York Times recent article pointed out that unless you plan on staying put in the next home you buy for 7 years, it may just not be worth it.
In today’s market, this espeically holds true. It may not have been during the housing heyday, when even builders made buyers sign agreements not to sell their newly built home for 1-2 year, because flipping was rampant and successful.
Consider this: “[O]wners who sell a $300,000 home, for instance, will pay roughly $24,000 in commissions and other fees, and another $2,000 to $3,000 in closing costs on the new mortgage. Most real estate projections… suggest that prices will drop a bit and then flatten over the next two years, then slowly recover over the following five years, appreciating at an annual rate of 2 percent to 3 percent.”
Based on this theory, one would need to generate an 11% appreiciation over 7 years for buying a house with similar characteristics as above just to come out break even. While this is about 1.5% appreciation per year, in today’s market most homes seem to be depreciating, rather than appreicating.
While this Magic Number 7 rule is an easy one to consider, my personal theory of home buying has been for the long term. As I told an agent recently at an open house, where we chatted a bit about the markets, I’m looking to buy a home, not an investment. In an ideal world, my home would appreciate over time – because I plan to be in it for the long term (i.e. 7-10 years). But if it doesn’t (granted, I hope not to lose money), the return on my investment I hope would be many happy memories of having a place to call home for my family and me and good times spent with friends.
October 15, 2008
Previous Posts in this series:
Thinking Ahead: Retirement Property
Retirement Search: Initiation
Retirement: If Wishes Were Horses
Yesterday was spent on the road, checking out three north county cities. We started in Vista, which was listed as the seventh-best place in the United States for family life, based on factors such as jobs and business opportunities, education, climate, and cost-of-living in a 2008 review. Vista is a hop, skip and jump from Highway 5, via the newly paved Highway 78. The terrain is fairly flat, with some gently rolling hills around the edges. There is a diversity in neighborhoods, running from apartments to small post-war ranchers to larger elaborate mini-mansions. Strip malls abound, and we never did locate a proper “downtown” (despite using a brand new GPS system). They are building a new civic center, at the corner of Eucalyptus and Escondido, which is slated to be complete in the summer of 2010.
Some basic stats on Vista:
Population: 89,527 (based on the sign leading into town)
Median income (2006): $50,162
Below poverty line: 15%
Cost of Living Index: 121 (US Avg = 100)
Weather: Warmest Jul/Aug/Sept – low 80s Coolest Dec-March – 68
Crime: FBI crime stats show 50 per 10,000 residents (consistent with my current suburban location)
Miles from ocean: 7+
Because this is just a scouting trip, to see if we like SoCal, we have not contacted an agent to see listings. Our plan is to check out a few homes that fit our criteria, based on MLS listings, and then drive neighborhoods, visit downtowns and see what a city has to offer. My initial search turned up 12 properties of over an acre and under $600,000. As is typical of this area, many listings did not have addresses, and were listed as Undisclosed. In some cases, if I liked the look of a home, I would note the cross street and visit the neighborhood to see if it was of interest.
In Vista, we drove by three listings. The first, at 125 Kilby Lane sat amongst streets of palm and fruit trees. The home itself had no landscaping, was very vanilla in character, and overlooked an empty lot and a major thoroughfare. I had chosen this house because it came with 3 other parcels, had a pool, and had dropped in price from $1,196,000 to $519,900. Additionally, there were architectural plans for a second home. Unfortunately, it did not appeal to us.
As we drove around in a neighborhood on another side of town, we ran into 960 Phillips. A newer home, there were no flyers to check out, but we thought the neighborhood was nice. An added touch was the two peacocks strutting their stuff about 100 feet down the road. Turns out that the home is only on 6/10 of an acre (on 2 parcels), although it does have a pool. It’s in the price range at $485,000. Not quite what we are looking for, but nice nonetheless.
The neighborhood we liked best was off E. Vista Way. This was a very nice area, quiet, nice homes of varying sizes, all well-kept and landscaped. All seemed to be on generously sized lots with views of either the hills or the canyon. The home that brought us to this neighborhood is a newer French Normandy custom home on 1.18 acres. Unique, and all on one story, there were a number of high-end amenities in this listing and room for a pool or separate studio. Originally listed at $950,000, this home at 1925 Vista Grande is now priced at $625,000.
Next Up: Escondido
October 14, 2008
With the events in the financial markets getting everyone spooked last week (including yours truly), it seemed like there were more price reductions than typical in Marin. Here are my picks of the week:
3 West Shore Rd Belvedere – 5 beds, 3.5 baths – $3,999,000: Ok, yes this is a high price tag. But considering the seller knocked another $1 million off the price, this had to be mentioned (but I’m assuming that this is out of the range of most folks like me) and not only wins the pick of the week, but maybe the pick of the summer/ fall. Prime waterfront Belvedere property with boat dock and views of Mt. Tam. This is the second price reduction; first was a $500,000 knock off. Originally listed in July for $5,595,000. This may be the biggest price reduction in actual dollar terms I’ve seen and in terms of percentage – a 20% price reduction – it ranks up there. If this is your price range, this is worth another look.
157 Woodland Ave #8 San Rafael – 3 beds, 2.5 baths – $599,000: This is a townhome near the Bret Hart area of San Rafael. Built in 2001, it looks to have the amenities you would expect in a newer home. Nice views. This is the first reduction from the original ask of $649,000. Getting close to the 2001 sales price of $559,000.
4 White Oak Way Novato – 4 beds, 3.5 baths – $765,000: Over 90 days (make that over 200 days) on the market, this house is experiencing the downtown that has hit Novato but seems to have spare (so far) other Marin cities. This is the 4th mark down from the original ask of $869,000. Vacant and looks like a REO. Newer home so has all the extras you expect as well. Based on sales records, I’m guessing the bank bought this for just over $800,000 at the beginning of the year.
25 Heather Way Larkspur – 2 beds, 1 bath – $799,000: This is also the first price reduction for this cottage that is walking distance to downtown Larkspur. It first asked $869,000. No pics of the inside, which leads one to assume that the interior is not a highlight. Location is prime and most likely the main driver of the price. What a difference you get between the Novato house above and one in a more coveted area like Larkspur.
35 Queen Rd Bolinas – 2 beds, 2 baths – $1,995,000: A nearly $500,000 mark down for this modernist retreat in magical Bolinas. Ocean views and a bedroom with floor to ceiling windows. Contemporary lines and fixtures all around. On the market since June when the original ask was $2,450,000.
October 14, 2008
Ladies, you never know: You could find yourself single at any time. Maybe you find yourself that way now. That doesn’t mean the idea of owning a house should be relegated to the back of the closet along with your torn up photos of your X or the wedding dress you hope never to see again, yet can’t quite throw out.
No, you will pick yourself up and look at condos this weekend. No better therapy, they say, than shopping (I absolutely disagree with this, but make an exception for home shopping, which would cheer me up immediately and entirely). And condos are a good place to start, since they grant you access to a little community, something you might want if you’re on your own. They are the proverbial foot in the door of SF real estate, and if all goes well, one day you can sell that condo and move in to real, detached home– with or without a partner.
Empowered then, I list for you a few condos open this weekend that I myself am going to see. And for once, I can actually review them candidly, because, hey: As I’ve wanted to so ever since Redfin was banned from doing house reviews, I started my own blog, San Francisco House Porn (because I am obsessed with houses and spend many a dark hour peering at their images, I could think of no more fitting name). And since that blog is not affiliated with selling real estate, there’s not any conflict of interest with me posting opinions on homes for sale. As I say on the blog, there can’t be a conflict of interest, since my only interest is buying a house that doesn’t suck. Hope I can help a few of you do the same.
See you this weekend?
210 Hoffman Ave: Several units in this Noe locale open this weekend. I’m interested in this 1/1 at #A for $479K. This is a TIC but the building is vacant so the rules and such are yet to form. I would be able then to say: “Dogs? Yes!”
20 Crestline Dr., #5: Twin Peaks with the soaring city view. Love it. This is a 1/1 TIC for $429K.
1776 Page, #B: a 1/1 in the Haight. The price, $299K, makes one a little suspicious, but that’s what open houses are for.
25 Guerrero, #202: Here is a Mission 1/1, newly listed at $399K. TIC with a great yard in the sun belt. Worth a look!
October 14, 2008
Previous Posts:
Thinking Ahead: Retirement Property
Retirment Search: Initiation
Ahhh…the elusive and never-ending search for what we want. It goes on even now, at our age. We’ve had a hard time pinning down what we want, as we know circumstances may change. I’d be perfectly content with a 2 bedroom home, on at least an acre, for under $600,000, somewhere in California. But, my parents have expressed interest in sharing a property with us, so we could look for compounds, a property with two homes on it, for $1mil or so. I am also willing to buy land and build a green, pre-fab home, like a Dwell house, or something from Tiny Tumbleweeds. And further yet, to be near to all our family and really enjoy our retirement years, maybe a small condo in SoCal (San Diego, Palm Springs) and a cabin (near Tahoe or Pinecrest)? Makes me sound greedy, doesn’t it?
For our San Diego purposes, our retirement search will focus on a minimum 1 acre parcel, with minimum 2BR/1BA home, under $600,000. I will, however, keep my eye out for the perfect family compound, just in case one should pop up. Gotta keep those options open. As for other criteria, which would help us in narrowing our search:
Studio or separate building for office/guests
Right now we have a room in our home dubbed the “Brady B&B Room #2″ and it gets used on a regular basis. We have guests all the time, family and friends who visit the area. We love it, kind of like adult sleepovers. If we move away from our children, we do hope they will come to visit often, as well as other family and friends, so a space for them is crucial, as is an office for me. I am a freelancer and work 95% from home and need a dedicated space for myself.
Pool
I have never owned a pool in my life, unless you count those inflatable kiddie pools. If we live in a warm area, I’d like a pool. Of course, if we move close to the ocean or a lake, I’d be happy to forget this little option.
Single story (two story okay if there is one or more BR on first floor)
I have had rheumatoid arthritis for 13 years. I’ve adjusted my habits and try to keep it at bay, as best I can. But I am trying to think ahead, and stairs would not be the wisest choice for me (unless elevators are involved, which isn’t likely in this price range).
Style of home
I really, really don’t want a rancher. I want something with character: a barn, an old church, a Victorian, a cool mid-mod, a Craftsman or even a Spanish-style. Something unique, unusual. Doesn’t have to be in tip-top condition, in fact, I’d prefer a fixer, so I can put in the kitchen I have always longed for…..
I’ve been perusing real estate online in the following San Diego county cities:
- Vista
- Escondido
- Ramona
- San Marcos
- El Cajon
- Santee
- Lakeside
- Fallbrook
I’ve also been advised to check out Coronado (for a condo only), Valley Center (near Fallbrook), and I fell in love with Encinitas yesterday when we were driving around, so will put that on the list.
It’s rather ambitious of me to think I can check all these out in the week that I am here, but I’m going to do my best, in between working and visiting friends. First up will be Vista,Escondido and Ramona.
October 14, 2008
Living in suburbia as I do, it’s not often that I see the effects of rampant wildfires. Earlier this summer when NorCal was experiencing a large number of fires in Big Sur, Santa Cruz, Napa, Paradise, and further north, we did have some smoky skies and for some, travel plans were interrupted. While I did report on these events in my weekly round-up, I did not give them too much thought.
Fast forward to today. I am in San Diego County looking at retirement property. When doing research over the last two months, I remember finding out that one of the cities we would be checking out, F
allbrook, was a fire site in 2007, with mandatory evacuation of the whole town. I wondered how often that had happened and if I should be concerned. Today, I sit and watch the black smoke of wildfire curl up into the sky from multiple fires burning a few miles away at Camp Pendleton. Initially there was mandatory evacuation in parts of Oceanside, the city next to where I am staying. That has since been lifted, but it serves as a notice to me to be more aware of this potential hazard of certain towns, located near large expanses of open space and trees.
While wildfire is one of the downsides to living near national parks and open spaces, it seems more prevalent than the earthquakes we worry about on a continual basis in the Bay Area. My brother, living outside Los Angeles, deals annually with the fires inflamed by the whipping Santa Ana winds (which is also happening right now). They have yet to evacuate in the ten years of living in La Canada, but each fall they are effected by the smoke: windows and doors shut tight, ash in the air and covering everything, closed freeways blocking commuter routes, and air quality so poor that soccer games need to be cancelled.
Being in the midst of this type of natural disaster, seeing news reports, and smelling the destructive fires distinct aroma, causes me to pause and ponder. Over the years I have developed a sense that no matter where we live there will be something looming; hurricanes in Florida have caused friends to flee north, family in Missouri regularly takes shelter in their underground bunker during tornados, and rising rivers cause floods throughout the land. And if you are lucky enough to live where a major natural disaster isn’t likely to strike, chances are you have a regularly occurring annoyance, like hundreds of feet of snowfall per year. I think the key is to acknowledge it, prepare for it, and expect it, not letting your guard down.
Recently we prepared our living trust, wills, and advanced directives. We have compiled all our important papers, along with these, for easy grab and go. Family heirlooms (not gold and diamonds, but sentimental trinkets handed down) and well as family photos, are all in one place, and computers are laptops, easy to scoop up on the run. The rest is replaceable, more or less.
I don’t think this latest reminder will make me reconsider this area, but I’m glad it happened while I was here so that it can factor into a decision.
October 13, 2008
One puzzler in the San Jose market is that one of its nicest residential areas shows some of the largest price declines. The community of Santa Teresa is close to several major freeways including highway 85, a very large dog-friendly park, several incredible golf courses, and light rail – yet over 50% of the homes on the market here have shown reductions, with a mean reduction of 8.3%.
Santa Teresa County Park is a big reason to live here – with 1627 acres of pristine parkland featuring beautiful views, picnic grounds, hiking, biking and equestian trails, and even an archery range. And the Santa Teresa Golf Course is a challenging course that is still friendly to those with higher handicaps, like yours truly.
Santa Teresa is a bit further down the road than most of San Jose – and it does get hotter here in the summer. But with 254 homes on the market at an average selling price of $518k, wide upscale residential streets and easy access to recreational areas, Santa Teresa is a great place to find a bargain during this down market. According to Redfin, there are 67 single family homes for sale in this market for less than $600k with three or more beds. Most homes in this area have reasonably sized yards, and nice curb appeal.
Other reasons to live here include close proximity to the new Kaiser hospital, as well as to the upcoming shopping mecca being built on the old IBM site off Cottle Road.
Living here also means that driving to the Gilroy Garlic Festival, Monterey, Pismo Beach, or Hearst Castle is not quite as much of a haul as it would otherwise be!
October 13, 2008
Back in March I wrote about Redwood City’s “Suburban Restaurant Row,” where I tested my theory that every third storefront along Broadway offered food. Stretching from El Camino to Main Street, I walked every block, counted every storefront and building and, sure enough, 34 out of 90 businesses were food-related. At the time, I mentioned that San Carlos felt the same way, with restaurants everywhere, and on a nice fall day, I took a stroll to check it out.
Defining the downtown in Redwood City was easy, but not so in San Carlos. I found it difficult determining which blocks to include. While I did walk or drive the full length of Laurel from San Carlos Avenue to Eaton, my final decision is to include only 3 (long) blocks, starting at San Carlos Avenue and ending at Arroyo. I will, however, point out those restaurants currently operating from Arroyo to Eaton, just to give you the largest range possible of eating establishments to choose from.
The first block of downtown Laurel, extending from San Carlos Avenue to Cherry, houses 40 storefronts, of which 13 are food-related. On the east side, you start with Starbucks, which is next to Bullpen Deli, which is next to House of Bagels. An alley separates these three from Chocolate Mousse Bakery. Also on this side are Nino’s Gourmet, New York New York Deli, Siamese Kitchen, and my favorite teahouse, The English Rose. On the west side, you have Foodville, La Boulangerie, Taqueria Mi Ranchito, Plantation Coffee Roastery, and the newest kid on the block, Pilita Mediterranean Grill.
Block 2 starts at Cherry and works its way down to Olive, where I found 39 storefronts, with 12 of those serving food. On the east side, which is heavily represented with European cuisine, is Speederia Pizza, followed by my personal favorite Piacere, then a soon-to-open Asian restaurant (replacing Laurel Street Café, whose owners have returned to France), Donut Delite (a fave with the older crowd), Santorini Mediterranean, Ristoranate Spasso (the best lavender crème brulee ever), Kaigan Sushi and La Tosca. Across the street is the ever-popular Town, soon-to-open Cask wine bar, Cowabunga Creamery (serving the delicious local Marianne’s brand ice cream), and Giuliana’s Ristorante Italiano.
The last block, from Olive to Arroyo, counts 8 culinary businesses out of 19 storefronts. The east side has only two: Yan’s Garden and Broiler Express. The west side is up and coming, with the new Foodvile/Bianchini’s set to open, Red Mango opening a franchise, Starbucks, Vanilla Moon Bakery (which I wrote about here), 888 Ristorante Italiano, and Ozuma Japanese.
In these three blocks, which total 98 storefronts, a whopping 33 serve food. Just over one-third trying to garner your business and satisfy your hunger. The majority of these have been in business for 10 or more years and seem to be holding their own, staying true to their initial vision. Newbies are creeping in, but seem to be carving out a niche, like Cowabunga Creamery which replaces the old ice cream shop in town and caters to youth, and Spasso which is the only game in town for tapas, that I know of.
Once you pass Arroyo, the pickings get slim, but are some of the best bets, particularly The Refuge and Micha’s. The Refuge is a wine pub with a chef that makes his own charcuterie and
pastrami. They serve great international beers and have a constant crowd. Micha’s, at the very end of Laurel, almost to Eaton, has great barbecue and jazz every Friday and Saturday night. Other restaurants on Laurel outside of the downtown radius are: Gracie’s Delectables (near Arroyo); Cantina (between Morse and Brittan); Flower Drum, Big Joe’s Café, Rumi (next on my list of restaurants to try), Oxford Street Chinese, and New Canton (between Laurel and Greenwood); Absolute, Crepes, Skinny Sippin (Greenwood to Howard); and La Hacienda (Howard to Belmont).
Total count: 46
Cuisines: American, Mexican, Thai, Italian, Mediterranean, Chinese, Japanese, British, Greek, Persian
