October 10, 2008

If I Ruled the World – Or Were At Least the President…..

crownkingplasticdlx If I Ruled the World   Or Were At Least the President.....Not too long ago, I saw a PR video by Paris Hilton that has been watched by millions, developed in response to a comment made by John McCain.  She was certainly coached as to what to say, but her compromise position on off-shore drilling made a great deal of sense more than anything said by either candidate!   To this I say …..hey……if she can do it, so can I.

If I were the one with the microphone in my face being asked what should be done about the housing crisis, and the economic crisis in general, here is what my response would be: 

The crisis we are facing now was many years in the making.  It didn’t happen overnight, and it is not going to be fixed overnight.  Nevertheless, there are some concrete steps we can take to make sure that things stablize and begin to change for the better. 

For the next 3 months, I would freeze all gasoline prices in the US and suspend all futures speculation on oil or petroleum products in general.  The futures market drove many of the volatile prices we saw at the pumps. And if other petroleum products are not frozen as well, the oil companies will just raise prices on them to help make up the difference.  Imagine a $20 jar of Vaseline!

Next, instead of moving forward with the AIG bailout (whom I think richly deserve their demise), I would announce a new federally backed credit program where gainfully employed families can apply for lower interest rate loans (one point below prime) for everything from $1K to a $100K down payment for a home, and I would suspend the rules about not allowing borrowing for a down payment.   After all, many Americans have been forced to use their savings to pay extra gasoline bills and extra medical expenses – as insurance companies have found more and more ways to increase deductables and disallow claims.  Unless I miss my guess, this program would cost less than the AIG bailout.   Other insurance companies will rise to fill in the prominent AIG gap – maybe even some ethical (imagine that) companies who will work with their customers and actually focus on the needs of the people.   And this loan program would help to spur the consumer economy, and consumer spending.

Next, I would start a program just for the unemployed if their current jobs were lost expressly due to the housing crisis.  These workers would be given a one time grant of $500 if they add their resumes into a new federal jobs data base for potential hiring by the newly announced federal $1K-20K loan program.   

Anyone who lost their home in the last two years due to the rapid adjustment of ARM rates would be given unmistakable priority in receiving the newly announced HUD loans for 3% down.  I didn’t see any such provision when I attempted to plow through bits and pieces of the lengthy mortgage bailout program document.  Another provision that should be added to this document is additional qualifications for buyers before they are allowed to participate in an ARM loan of any kind, qualifications that include being able to show probable income growth, passing a questionnaire that shows a high level of understanding of what an ARM actually is and what it does, and having the ability to make a payment at the highest levels of adjustment the loan can reach. 

Last but not least, I would increase government tax credits to those who upgrade their homes to wind power or solar power, and create a government funded venture arm with at least a $100M investment budget solely to fund startup companies that are focused in three areas:

 - Creating new methods of transportation that don’t involve oil or oil products in any way.  It is time to think “outside the boxy electric car”

-  Creating alternate sources of energy for large scale industrial processes, or alternatively reducing the energy consumption of these processes

- Finding or creating lower cost methods of expanding preventative medicinal services to millions of Americans – services such as IPTV-based interactive patient monitoring (to eliminate costly visits and predict health crises in those at risk before they consume emergency services), immune enhancing services for the populace (think fortified foods and water), and actually removing the AMA and pharmaceutical companies resistance to herbal products that solve problems less intrusively and expensively.  

But alas, I am neither Paris Hilton, Barack Obama, or John McCain.   I can only put my ideas out here for my readers to comment on. 

Comments anyone??


  • David
    $100M is chump change, sorry Brenda. Sequoia, just to name one well-known tech VC fund, just raised $929M, in a horrible time for fund-raising. Just one fund. Just the most recent raise. Just biotech (my industry) private companies raised almost $12B this year, a horrible year. Last year companies raised over $30B, just in biotech.

    As for the other points. Global meltdown in the '70s? Weren't you there? Stock markets went down about 60% to start the decade, and finished flat in nominal dollars, but inflation was in the double digits. Unemployment was higher, etc etc. The '70's stank.

    As for herbals, I know it's a matter of faith, so I won't argue, except to say the plural of anecdote is not data. Dozens, if not hundreds of herbals have been tested in the clinic, and the handful that have worked have been adapted into drugs, and research continues to find the next handful.

    Dilution? Let's say the owners/employees still have a majority of the company, not the VCs.
  • I made the correction to $100M BTW. And I am not so sure.......I think I have a few better ideas than the candidates we have to choose from.

    But you don't have to worry. I am not ruling yet!
  • walt
    Right on, David. Brenda needs another 20 years of seasoning before she's ready to rule.
  • I hear your criticisms, but I also see no new solutions coming out.

    Yes, there were gas shortages but we didn't go into a global meltdown like we are in now.

    Yep, I meant to say $100M not $10M. I have been in several startups that lived for years with $2M initial rounds. $36M?? What kind of dilution are you experiencing?

    And for the $100M, I was thinking just a FEW carefully chosen companies would be funded. If each could prove a concept on $2M - this would fund more than a few. Plus, if you look at TechCrunch today you will see that the venture funds are dramatically down in terms of being able to raise money.

    I disagree with you on herbals. Several members of my family would not be alive if not for herbal meds.
  • David
    Well, I'm glad you don't rule the world. Your solutions have all been tried before, and don't work. Nixon tried your first "solution"--result: gasoline shortages. Your next "solution" would result in even more inflation than is likely to result from the current bailout plans. One point below prime? That's just repeating the last bubble problem. Next, why should r.e. jobs be specifically protected? Give me a break. How about all the tech workers back in 2001? ARMs--not a problem anymore. That ship has sailed, and anyway, rates are low now; if your loan adjusts, you're probably not seeing an increase in payments. $10M for a venture arm? That's a single round of financing for just about any capital intensive start-up company. Just one round, just one company (I know, my company raised $36M last year, first round). I don't see why the gov't needs to do this, as there are many funds dedicated solely to those purposes that command far greater sums of money. The health thing would likely cost more money (at least 1/3 of the "uninsured" are people under 30 who don't use much health care, ergo spending money on "preventative care" will cost more. QED). As for herbals, there have been plenty of studies on plenty of 'remedies'--they just don't work, and if they did, they're part of a traditional medicine already, i.e. Taxol for cancer (derived from Pacific yew tree bark, originally). Or aspirin (willow tree bark).
  • I am not disagreeing with you - but I also know that many who were stung were not educated, and some barely spoke English and merely trusted their greedy realtor. Should they be punished? Should the laws ALLOW this to happen? No, they shouldn't.

    Yes, some people were greedy and thought that as soon as their next IPO stock pop hit, the 10x income ratio would narrow - but that pop never came.

    And no, I am not a realtor. I am a Redfin writer, and one of those crazy Silicon Valley execs who thought the stock in my last 10 startups was actually going to be worth something....
  • Jack Hannah
    Are you a realtor or do you work in a sector that is dependent on housing?
    Your theories completely omit the fact that predatory lending was not the only factor that led to this bust. It was greed. Pure and simple.
    I was there,I know it. Realtors forcing their buyers to "get in or they'll miss out". People buying because they knew "housing always goes up".
    Investment banks buying CDOs / CDSs because they knew people would buy this theory.
    When a person buys a home 10 times their annual income, they are either very very poor in Math or extremely short sighted. I don't believe a lender , no matter how "cunning" would convince me I could sustain a home that much skewed from my annual income. Simple economics kids in third world countries can teach you. Spending
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