SF: Bubble Trouble? Someone Didn’t Get the Memo

Selfish? Okay, maybe; but I’m hoping one side effect of the plunging stock market is that I might see houses I can afford in neighborhoods I’d like. Fellow blogger Tracey Taylor mentioned some deals in Berkeley, even in areas considered fairly immune to economic recessions, and we all know San Francisco real estate is purported bullet proof to such downturns. Yet, Susan Brady’s blog on Property Shark’s bubble-trouble map of the city suggests we are suffering in SF– at least, in parts.

The perplexing thing for me then, as a would-be, currently priced-out, hoping for reality check buyer, is that prices are not really going down as much as I would expect. Or maybe, as much as I’d hope. I’m not sure what I can expect for home prices, since listings can sometimes defy logic, and (these days at least) are apt to come down several thousand dollars when they start too high.

For instance, Susan’s analysis of the Property Shark map tells us Hunter’s Point and Ingleside are in trouble. This I’d expect. And as a buyer, I’d not want to try those nieghborhoods just because I might get a deal there. I would not want to actually live out there long enough to realize any investment potential. But Upper Market, Twin Peaks, and the Castro are a different story. I’d live in all those neighborhoods, and frankly, am surprised the Castro, just a street away from super-in-demand Noe Valley, is suffering.

Listings in these ‘hoods flat out belie Property Shark stats. Here’s one at 4644 18th St. (Castro): a 2/1 TIC– that’s right, a tenancy in common– for $885K. Nearby comps show nothing over $799,500.

In Twin Peaks (Clarendon Heights), a 1/1 at 160 Graystone Ter., #4 is also a TIC, albeit a “luxury” model. At 691 sq. ft. and $575K, the price-per-square is $832.  Size and TIC status make this seem high to me. It’s been reduced already to get here. May be due for more…?

Also in Twin Peaks, 260 Portola Dr. is a 2/2.5 condo for is $839K. It’s been on the market at that price since Aug 31.

Grand prize goes to 3645 Market St., #2. This is a 3/3.5 condo- sounds (and looks) good but at just over 1800 sq. ft, do you need 3 and 1/2 baths? What does that leave for non-bathroom activities? Interesting too, the price history: sold for $356,500 in 2003. Started at $1,295,000 in September, now listed for $1,230,000.

Bubble trouble? I don’t see it here…

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Pic: SoCalBubble.com