Comments on: Case-Shiller: One Year of Price Gains Wiped Out in a Month

By: John

John — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 12:38:23 +0000

“Which illustrates exactly the reason people use composites and charts. It is a much more accurate representation of what the market is doing, as compared to the (very!) tiny subset that is made up by ‘those around you.’”

actually wrong. It would be more accurate to look at charts by zip code.
The only thing garnered from composite chart is that Contra Costa county is hit hard. It’s impossible to tell what’s going on in San Francisco proper.

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 17:24:55 +0000

Lots of 2 or 3 year arms and subprime in Conta Costa. The areas that have ‘only’ fallen 10-20% so far mostly had 5 year arms written in 2005-2007. 30% were negative amortization (option ARM), which is just as bad as subprime.

It’s really not that hard to see how this will unfold 2009-2011. Contra Costa is probably near bottom. San Francisco has just begun.

By: Kemp

Kemp — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:20:29 +0000

Note the “San Francisco” area for Case-Schiller includes SF, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda Counties.

Some areas in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties especially have been BRUTALLY hit with price declines of easily 50% since the peak in many areas.

From what I have observed, the lesser-desired areas have been hit much harder than those areas considered “nice”. I am figuring this is the “crime discount” being added in rapidly in areas where crime is anticipated to surge.

By: Frank

Frank — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 15:39:34 +0000

“These charts never seem to really represent what is going on around me.”

Which illustrates exactly the reason people use composites and charts. It is a much more accurate representation of what the market is doing, as compared to the (very!) tiny subset that is made up by ‘those around you.’

By: Michelle

Michelle — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 06:46:46 +0000

So according to the first Case Shiller graph, “San Francisco” is now trading at 2002 levels? Dream on! I realize that this has to be a composite which includes the exurbs like Coco, but even there 2002 pricing is probably the floor, and that is the worst hit county with SF and the Peninsula much higher. These charts never seem to really represent what is going on around me.

By: replayer

replayer — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 01:08:23 +0000

I imagine that this trend will continue until housing levels get closer to historic norms of affordability. Now that the jumbo-conforming is now at 625K, pricing in the Bay area market will be further stressed. In addition, there are the layoffs that have yet to be truly felt in the local market.