Archive for January, 2009
January 27, 2009
I apologize again for the multi-week radio silence here. We’ve revamped our data delivery to be able to better streamline the whole process, and from now on there will be a regular schedule of in-depth data in this space. For now though, it’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the San Francisco area* as of November:
November 2008
Month to Month: Down 3.0%
Year to Year: Down 30.8%
Change from Peak: Down 38.1% in 30 months
The following chart shows the San Francisco HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Francisco HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (April 2002).
With last month’s drop in San Francisco’s Case-Shiller HPI, prices have now effectively “rewound” close to seven years.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Francisco’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s one more chart, in which I have lined up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
San Francisco now takes the lead for largest overall decline out of the seven Case-Shiller-tracked markets that Redfin serves. Among the entire 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller, only Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas have seen a larger overall drop in prices since their respective peaks.
*[Case-Shiller defines San Francisco as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]
January 15, 2009
I was checking out Bay Area real estate blogs today and thought I’d compile a list.
Top (Non-Agent) Real Estate Blogs
- SocketSite, “Real estate tips, trends and the local scoop”
- SF Curbed, “Covering real estate sales, rental prices, and news-making deals and much more”
- Burbed, “They’re not making any more land”
- Matrix, “Interpreting the real estate economy”
- San Francisco Real Estate Blog, ” It’s every bit as interesting as Curbed.”
- On The Blog by the SF Gate, “Daily commentary on the nation’s most diverse and unpredictable real estate market.”
Good Regional Blogs
Good Agent Blogs
Which blogs do you follow to stay on top of the Bay Area real estate scene?
January 10, 2009
Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.
The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.
For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here (saved in Excel 97-2003 .xls format by request). In order to keep from overwhelming you with charts, I am leaving out the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings from the post, but you can still see that chart in the downloaded file.
First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:
Of the 128 cities/towns we ranked in the Bay Area this month, 52 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. Alamo, Danville, and Rio del Mar all made the top ten for the last three months.
Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten Bay Area neighborhoods for price reductions:
46 of the 123 neighborhoods we ranked in Bay Area had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. There were no neighborhoods that made the top ten list for three months in a row.
For home buyers, cities and neighborhoods that consistently remain near the top of the list for price reductions may be a good place to potentially hunt for bargains. Once a home has been on the market a while, many buyers tend to overlook it, even though a price reduction or two may have brought it into a more desirable price range.
January 6, 2009
Let’s take a look at the big picture of supply (residential listings on the market at month-end) and demand (closed home sales). Having an idea of what is going on with supply and demand can be an excellent way to measure the general “strength” or “hotness” of a real estate market, and often will provide a hint of the future direction of home price changes.
Here’s a brief market summary for single-family sales, based on the lates data I have available:
November 2008
Active Listings: up 0.9% YOY
Closed Sales: up 18.7% YOY
Our first chart displays the raw supply and demand data back through early 2007:
2008 marked a new high point for Bay Area homes on the market, but listings plateaued early this year and have come down from their highs to match up pretty closely with 2007 in November. Meanwhile, the number of homes selling in the Bay Area has been slowly but surely rising throughout 2008.
Here’s a look at the year-over-year (YOY) change in the previous chart. YOY is the best way to interpret the direction of the market, due to the highly cyclical nature of real estate.
Inventory has basically flattened out on a year-over-year basis, while closed sales have been on the rise YOY since July.
The inventory pattern here in the Bay Area indicates a softening market, but not a dramatically crashing one. Likewise for the number of closed sales. Of course, we know that prices are falling, so it seems likely that the explanation for the relatively strong pattern of supply and demand would indicate that the falling prices are luring in buyers.
