Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Price Drops Show No Sign of Relenting
I apologize again for the multi-week radio silence here. We’ve revamped our data delivery to be able to better streamline the whole process, and from now on there will be a regular schedule of in-depth data in this space. For now though, it’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the San Francisco area* as of November:
November 2008
Month to Month: Down 3.0%
Year to Year: Down 30.8%
Change from Peak: Down 38.1% in 30 months
The following chart shows the San Francisco HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Francisco HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (April 2002).
With last month’s drop in San Francisco’s Case-Shiller HPI, prices have now effectively “rewound” close to seven years.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Francisco’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s one more chart, in which I have lined up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
San Francisco now takes the lead for largest overall decline out of the seven Case-Shiller-tracked markets that Redfin serves. Among the entire 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller, only Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas have seen a larger overall drop in prices since their respective peaks.
*[Case-Shiller defines San Francisco as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]
jaime1007 said:
Are we half way down?
February 1, 2009 9:09 PM
HHB said:
If you’re interested click my name to see a graph I did that incorporates the CME Futures Data for the San Francisco Case-Shiller Index.
As you’ll see we still have a ways to fall…
We’ll be very close to a 50% deline by Nov 2009.
February 2, 2009 1:40 PM
ilikemike97 said:
Hey, here’s a little tip:
When you are doing a graph with 8 cities (such as the ones in this article), don’t use 2 shades of avocado which are almost imperceptibly different and 2 shades of indistinguishable maroon. Try differnt colors completely (eg. burnt orange, lavender, sky blue, and lime green); or use broken lines (dashes) and solid lines.
Thanks.
February 3, 2009 9:16 PM
Robin said:
ilikemike97, I agree about the colors- it’s only the middle graph, though. The rest of the graphs have markers with different shapes.
I love to see graphs of trends like this, especially since I am thinking about purchasing a house in the SF Bay Area. Thanks for posting it!
February 12, 2009 3:11 AM
A. Lewis said:
This is great work, but I think it’s really valuable to show the 3 C-S tiers separately – we all know how differentiated the market is – the low priced homes didn’t move at the same time, or same pace as the high-priced homes.
Can you do some of this with the 3 tiers separate?
February 12, 2009 2:37 PM
Tim Ellis said:
Good feedback everybody, thanks.
I’ll see what I can do RE: the colors and the tiers.
February 12, 2009 2:39 PM
Peninsulaman said:
Have a 1050 sqft home in hmb. Found a 2900 sqft home that went off the market in hmb for 1.1M buyer will accept 1.05M. Was originally listed at 1.55 and is new construction never lived in. Is this a good time to buy considering that I will also be selling. Only 500,000 into my place with a 300,000 balance on mortgage.
February 12, 2009 3:49 PM