Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Price Drops Show No Sign of Relenting
I apologize again for the multi-week radio silence here. We’ve revamped our data delivery to be able to better streamline the whole process, and from now on there will be a regular schedule of in-depth data in this space. For now though, it’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the San Francisco area* as of November:
November 2008
Month to Month: Down 3.0%
Year to Year: Down 30.8%
Change from Peak: Down 38.1% in 30 months
The following chart shows the San Francisco HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Francisco HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (April 2002).
With last month’s drop in San Francisco’s Case-Shiller HPI, prices have now effectively “rewound” close to seven years.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Francisco’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s one more chart, in which I have lined up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
San Francisco now takes the lead for largest overall decline out of the seven Case-Shiller-tracked markets that Redfin serves. Among the entire 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller, only Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas have seen a larger overall drop in prices since their respective peaks.
*[Case-Shiller defines San Francisco as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]
