Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Plummet Again
It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the San Francisco area* as of December:
December 2008
Month to Month: Down 3.8%
Year to Year: Down 31.2%
Change from Peak: Down 40.4% in 31 months
The following chart shows the San Francisco HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Francisco HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (March 2002).
According to the Case-Shiller index, as of December home prices in San Francisco have “rewound” nearly seven years. This is easily the furthest into the past that prices have gone in any of the eight cities Redfin serves.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Francisco’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
The last half of 2008 has been like some sort of thrill ride for home prices in the Bay Area. I have a feeling that the results have not been especially thrilling for home sellers, but I’m sure potential home buyers are enjoying every minute of the ride to the bottom, wherever that ends up being.
*[Case-Shiller defines San Francisco as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]
HHB said:
Great graphs.
I’ve also updated the San Francisco Case-Shiller graph at my site and included Chicago Mercantile Exchange Futures data.
Click my name to see it.
As it shows, a home that was valued at $600,000 at the peak has fallen to $357,522 and is expected to fall to $303,888 by September.
February 25, 2009 1:48 PM
Voila said:
Well get ready for some more down news especially in the still over priced Monterey Bay. Prices will come down even more. Most can wait!
March 2, 2009 8:15 AM
Kat said:
Hey, just learning how to use this thing.. lol I had 17 houses and sold them all over the past 7 years not the last 3 thank GOD… one left with a single guy tenanat who now pays his rent early in fear I may be foreclosed on… which won’t happen bought for $49,000 in 93 and is worth about $400 now but have $150 payment.. Rent $950… Thank God he loves my place. lost his job of 10 years not sure where the money comes from to pay rent, but I’m getting it so not complaining. My house is worth about $400 bad market 500 something good market built it in 2002 and payment is $700.. so I’m golden with real estate so far…. lol I could tell anyone how to live below their means if they need help.. I’m a real estate broker and financial consultant among other things, but I’m from Vermont.. that tell ya anything about learning early to live furgally… works when bad times come along.. kat
March 2, 2009 10:29 AM
kat said:
Not duplicate.. first time I’ve ever spoken on Twitter or anywhere else but for facebook… still trying to navigate around
March 2, 2009 10:30 AM
Kento said:
Can you tell me how I can use OBP to purchase a home FHA from $160,000 until I can free up some other cash to pay it back? I lived in the bay area for 23 years and gave up in May of 2007 when I left only to have prices crash to much that now I could afford a home there, but can’t sell anything up here in Portland, Oregon fast enough to get the home I truly want…
THANKS
March 20, 2009 9:18 PM
Kento said:
Can you tell me how I can use Other People’s Money to purchase a home FHA from $160,000 until I can free up some other cash to pay it back? I lived in the bay area for 23 years and gave up in May of 2007 when I left only to have prices crash to much that now I could afford a home there, but can’t sell anything up here in Portland, Oregon fast enough to get the home I truly want…
THANKS
March 20, 2009 9:18 PM
Ham said:
Jan. 09 due out today.
March 24, 2009 9:33 AM
Tim Ellis said:
RE: Ham – Actually Case-Shiller is always released on the last Tuesday of the month, which is a week from today.
March 24, 2009 10:15 AM
Ham said:
Tim, My bad. Today is the day. You may need a bigger chart.
March 31, 2009 8:24 AM
Tim Ellis said:
RE: Ham – Yup, the post will be up later this afternoon. Should have it up by 4:00.
March 31, 2009 8:33 AM
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