Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Plummet Again
It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the San Francisco area* as of December:
December 2008
Month to Month: Down 3.8%
Year to Year: Down 31.2%
Change from Peak: Down 40.4% in 31 months
The following chart shows the San Francisco HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Francisco HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (March 2002).
According to the Case-Shiller index, as of December home prices in San Francisco have “rewound” nearly seven years. This is easily the furthest into the past that prices have gone in any of the eight cities Redfin serves.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Francisco’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
The last half of 2008 has been like some sort of thrill ride for home prices in the Bay Area. I have a feeling that the results have not been especially thrilling for home sellers, but I’m sure potential home buyers are enjoying every minute of the ride to the bottom, wherever that ends up being.
*[Case-Shiller defines San Francisco as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]
