Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Rewound to October 2000
It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – January data is released in March).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the San Francisco Bay Area* as of January:
January 2009
Month to Month: Down 4.4%
Year to Year: Down 32.4%
Change from Peak: Down 43.1% in 32 months
The following chart shows the Bay Area HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Bay Area HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (October 2000).
Thanks to a little mini-boom and bust in 2001 compared to a steady and steep decline in 2009, home prices in the Bay Area “rewound” seventeen months from December to January. The Bay Area is by far the furthest rewound market of those that Redfin serves.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Bay Area’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
At 43% off their peak, home prices in the Bay Area have fallen further than every market Redfin serves, and are “bested” in the entire 20-city Case-Shiller sample by only Phoenix and Las Vegas.
Keep in mind that Case-Shiller’s definition of the Bay Area is fairly broad, so it is certain that home shoppers out there right now will be finding some neighborhoods where prices have not fallen as far, and others that have fallen further.
*[Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco Bay Area as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]
