Comments on: Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Rewound to October 2000

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Tue, 01 Sep 2009 04:08:47 +0000

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By: Ken

Ken — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 23:04:17 +0000

I’m surprised this isn’t one of your favorite blogs:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

Thanks for the graph. Cheers.

By: Mac

Mac — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 09:01:18 +0000

The real economy by all estimates will continue to shrink for the remaining of this year and will probably bottom out sometime next year and will stay flat until the end of next year and after that will have a moderate growth at best. Home prices have direct correlation with economic growth or decline, therefore; fall of yet another 15-20% of home prices in bay area by the end of this year certainly sounds very reasonable, my estimate is that at that point it will continue its decline until fall of next year, although at a slower rate.

By: 4square

4square — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 22:33:33 +0000

This graph is more meaningful in the context of a bit longer time frame. For instance, you refer to ‘a little mini boom’ in 2001, but these data clearly show that the run-up in prices during 2001 was simply a continuation of the run-up that began around 1997 or so. The author’s presentation gives the appearance that prices are now close to the same levels they were before the steep upward trend began, which is not the case at all.

By: HHB

HHB — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 17:42:14 +0000

The CME Futures on the SF Case-Shiller predicts the index will continue to fall.

For example, a home priced at $600k at the peak is now down to $341k… and expected to fall to $291k by year-end.

Click my name to see the graph.

My guess is that much of this future decline will come from the areas that have yet to be hit hard.

BTW… Great chart at Calculated Risk. Thanks.

By: Tim Ellis

Tim Ellis — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 02:26:11 +0000

The highly recommended finance blog Calculated Risk did an analysis today of San Francisco's tiered price breakdown. They found that homes priced in the low range (likely those in the further-out areas) have fallen much farther and faster than those in the middle and high tiers.

By: Justin Steele

Justin Steele — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 02:21:20 +0000

Thanks for the information. I agree that this data is pretty misleading. East Contra Costa County and other hard hit areas account for the most sales, but areas that I have been looking in are down only 10-20% since the peak. Still waiting.

By: Tim Ellis

Tim Ellis — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:13:16 +0000

Sorry John, the Case-Shiller data is what it is. They don’t provide any breakouts into smaller geographical regions. You can visit the site (linked at the beginning of the post) and download a breakdown into three price tiers, but that probably won’t really be especially helpful for what you’re looking for.

By: John Fanelli

John Fanelli — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:10:51 +0000

Hi,

Thanks for posting this data. I live in San Francisco and I agree that the Bay Area Definition is very broad. Can you run the data by county, rather than just Bay Area. In particular, I would be interested in San Francisco and San Mateo counties.

thanks

john