Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Still in Apparent Near-Freefall

It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – February data is released in April).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the San Francisco Bay Area* as of February:

February 2009
Month to Month: Down 3.2%
Year to Year: Down 31.0%
Change from Peak: Down 44.9% in 33 months

The following chart shows the Bay Area HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Bay Area HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2000).

The Bay Area HPI is now up to approximately an eight and a half year rewind. Even if we accept the premise that this is due in large part to the broad geographical area covered by the Case-Shiller data, that means that there are likely some places where prices are comparable to the 1990s.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare the Bay Area’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Of the 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller, only Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami have fallen further from their respective peaks than San Francisco has. The decline here has been swift and stunning, and as of yet has shown little sign of easing. Yikes.

*[Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco Bay Area as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]