May 26, 2009
It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – March data is released in May).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the San Francisco Bay Area* as of March:
March 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.2%
Year to Year: Down 30.1%
Change from Peak: Down 46.1% in 34 months
The following chart shows the Bay Area HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Bay Area HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (May 2000).
At 2.2%, March’s month-to-month drop was the least severe seen in the Bay Area since July of last year. However, that didn’t stop the overall price “rewind” from pushing back into early 2000. As we pointed out last month, due to Case-Shiller’s broad geographical region for their San Francisco data, it is quite likely that there are some portions of the Bay Area that currently have prices rolled back into the ’90s.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare the Bay Area’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Following a trend we have seen down in SoCal, the Bay Area’s year-over-year drops actually appear to be moderating in recent months. March’s 30.1% drop was lower than February’s 31.0%, which was itself lower than January’s 32.4%. This is definitely a trend we will be keeping our eyes on in order to spot signs of an eventual bottom as early as possible.
*[Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco Bay Area as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]
May 8, 2009
Let’s look at our brokerage stats for the San Francisco Bay Area to see how what our clients are doing right now reflects what’s happening in the market.
Our Clients Love Our Fanatical Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in April from our Bay Area clients:
- 31 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, up from 20 March.
- 30 of those clients, or 97%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, up from 95% in March.
In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.
More People Are Looking At Foreclosed Properties
In April, our Bay Area clients were busy touring homes and making offers:
- Redfin clients toured 1,194 homes in March, up 21% from the 984 homes toured in March.
- Our clients submitted 56 signed offers on homes, up from 54 in March.
- Our Bay Area agents were busy working on these signed offers:
o Jim Holt: 19 offers
o Charmaine Frank: 18 offers
o Gina Pio Roda: 14 offers
o Miawand Bayan: 5 offers
- 21 of these offers or 38% were on bank-owned foreclosures, up from 26% in March.
“This increase in offers on bank-owned foreclosures is mainly due to listing agents pricing these homes below market value to attract attention and generate multiple offers,” says Redfin Bay Area agent Miawand Bayan. “We’re seeing a lot of offers on these aggressively-priced bank-owned homes, especially in the South Bay and East Bay.”
We also had a 64 people come to our April home-buying class in Oakland class to learn about the home-buying process and meet our agents. Check out the slide deck from the class.
It’s Taking 39 Days To Close On A Home
In April, it took our Bay Area clients 4 days longer to close on their homes than in March:
- For our clients who bought re-sales, the average time from initial agreement on terms to the close of the deal was 39 days, up from 35 days in March.
- 2 of our clients failed to get financing, up from 1 in March
- All of our client’s deals passed the home inspection; 2 failed the inspection in March.
- Of our closed deals, the average discount off list price for homes sold was 3.51%, down from 5.93% in March.
Look For Our May Report
We’ll be back next month with our analysis of the May numbers. Let us know what you’d like to see in that report.
May 1, 2009
We’re hosting a focus group on Tuesday, May 5 and we’re looking for about 10 participants to talk about how we can make Redfin better.
If you’re interested, take this short survey so that we can find out a little more about you. If you’re selected, we’ll get in touch.
We’ll give each participant $50 and we’ll provide dinner and drinks.
Update: Thanks for your interest, we’re now full! If you have ideas about how we can improve Redfin please let us know in the forums.
