October 10, 2009

Where Were the Biggest Discounts in August?

Let’s check in on our stats to find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the charts below, we have taken all sales data from last month in the Bay Area and sorted it by city.

Methodology
In order to maintain consistency with the automatically generated statistics posted to the Redfin neighborhood pages, we have slightly tweaked the way the statistics are compiled for this post series. First, we complied a list of every sale that took place in the month, calculating each sale’s sale-to-list ratio (based on the final list price). Next, we simply take an average of every individual sale’s sale-to-list ratio to calculate an entire area’s sale-to-list ratio. Any sales that came in with a sale-to-list ratio above 150% or below 50% are excluded from the calculation, and areas with fewer than twenty sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings. Interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:

SF Sale to List most 2009 08 Where Were the Biggest Discounts in August?

The overall discount rate was obviously lower than our last update, but since we tweaked the methodology slightly, unfortunately they’re not really comparable.

Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:

SF Sale to List least 2009 08 Where Were the Biggest Discounts in August?

In the 49 areas we ranked, the median discount was 0.2%.

Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and hit the “FullSummary” sheet.

Of the 4,199 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 768 homes sold for 5% or more off the asking price, while 960 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.


  • sonrisa - I'm not sure why Marin County was not included in the data that was extracted this month. I will look into that.

    Ira - Thank you for the heads up on the area shortnames. Don't know why they're in the data set like that, but I usually catch those and fix them. Overlooked that detail this month, but I have gone back in and corrected it now.

    Also, I would love to run the numbers based on initial list price, but unfortunately the San Francisco data comes from about 5 or 6 different MLS systems and while some of them provide original list price data, not all do, so I don't have a complete data set with original list price.

    Thanks for the chart suggestions. I'll think about what I can do to simplify the visualization of this data.
  • Hi

    I do similar research for Berkeley - some suggestions

    1: Compute discount based upon INITIAL list price rather than final list price. A home which dropped dramatically in initial list price and then sold for the final price didn't have a 0% discount

    2: The bar charts are confusing to me.. and I've been using graphs and charts for 40+ years. Perhaps they should be reversed so bars below the line above, and vice versa. Does the -7.6% figure for San Lorenzo means that the average home sold for 7.6% above the asking price. Just started reading a great book "Don't Make Me Think" ... and these charts are making me think too much.

    3: Nice job of watermarking. I do the same thing

    4: Walnutcrek is spelled like drek. Saintly Cities such as Sanlorenzo should have the same space that San Pablo does.

    Just sayin'

    Ira Serkes, putting the anal back into analytical
  • sonrisa
    (please excuse the typo)
  • sonrisa
    What happened to Marin County? In the past cities in Marin have consistent;y made the most discounted list. This month, not only aren't they in the charts, but they aren't even included on your full summary.
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