Author: Scott H
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December 13, 2007
While looking over the sales that have taken place so far in December, the first thing I noticed is how few there are. The last time I took a close look at this data back in September, there were 50-60 sales a week in the neighborhoods I cover. Things have definitely slowed down a bit for the winter as there have only been 35 sales in the same neighborhoods since December 1.
Another striking difference was the number of properties going for less than their original asking price. Back in September, the vast majority of properties were selling for at or over asking. So far in December, over 60% of properties sold have fetched less than asking, with some going for significant discounts.
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November 15, 2007
DataQuick released their numbers for October today and, like last month, the picture for the bay area as a whole is pretty gloomy. 5,486 houses were sold last month in the greater bay area. This was up 9% from the dismal numbers reported last month, but down 36% from October of last year and the poorest October on record since DataQuick started keeping track in 1988. Difficulty obtaining jumbo loans appears to be at least partly to blame, as the number of purchases financed with jumbos “dropped in half” (nit: it’s not clear from the article whether this is from last month, last year or some other time).
The news wasn’t all bad, however. There was a small increase in the median sale price both when compared to last month and to last October. DataQuick also acknowledged that some bay area markets seem to be relatively impervious to the downturn:
The metro Bay Area markets – near the coast and close to the major job centers – are weathering this downturn better than the rest of the state. We’re finding that higher-priced areas are not seeing the price declines we’re seeing in the more affordable areas that absorbed spillover activity during the frenzy two years ago.
The article can be read in its entirety here. And, back by popular demand, here’s a picture summarizing my take on this month’s data:
Image credit: euan_pics via Flickr.
November 15, 2007
With a large number of new condominium units slated to come online in SF in the next 12 months or so, one can’t help but feel a bit nervous that developers may have to slash prices in order to move all of their inventory. A price reduction on perfectly comparable units could be a disaster for anyone under contract at pre-slash prices. Though developers tend to hold prices steady and instead offer incentives when trying to move units, outright price reductions are not totally unheard of. To address the concern, Esprit Park announced the following guaranty today:
When you purchase a home in our community, we will assign one or more similar properties in the project to your purchase contract. Should any of those assigned homes reduce in price or be sold at a lesser price than originally listed, we will reduce the price of your home as well by the same percentage amount prior to your close of escrow. No questions asked.
It would be interesting to read the fine print on this offer and would be nice if it included the value of any incentives offered as well as outright reductions, but the concept seems like a good one.
In the same release, Esprit also announced a $635k starting price for 1 bed 1.5 bath units. No word yet on pricing for the larger units.
November 12, 2007
Thanks to The Front Steps for making me aware of Cyberhomes, a new (to me, at least) website put together by Fidelity National Financial that allows free access to their vast database of property information. Like Zillow, The site will provide an estimate of the value of a home. I don’t find these estimates to be particularly useful or accurate; however, it doesn’t stop there.
I tried typing in 1030 Sunnyhills over in Oakland – a property we were thinking of writing an offer on but have decided to pass up. Cyberhomes came back with some info on the listing as well a map with an estimate of the value of each home within a few blocks. From here, I was able to set up a free account and quickly create an unbelievably cool (I realize I should probably get out more) report with all kinds of information that would be very useful in evaluating the home, including: data on 10 recent comparable sales (complete with map and details on the comps); data and graphs on homes and sales in the same zip code; charts showing various market indicators (unemployment, building permits, rental vacancy rates) and their impact on the prices of similar properties; and information on neighborhood demographics. While some of this information is available elsewhere, Cyberhomes does a nice job of pulling it all together and will make a very nice companion to Redfin in my property search.
Though it’s pretty easy to create your own report, you’re welcome to check out a PDF the one I created here.
November 1, 2007
The Federal Reserve Cut the Federal Funds Rate and the Discount Rate again yesterday by .25% each. As we noted with the Fed’s last rate cut, this is definitely good news for those with credit card debt or home equity lines of credit, as interest rates on this type of debt tend to move lock-step with the Fed Funds Rate.
The impact of the rate cuts on mortgages and the housing market in general is less certain. I observed no immediate impact from the Fed’s last rate cut in mid-September; however, in the weeks following the last cut, the lenders I am working with have cut rates on their jumbo loans by almost .5%.
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October 19, 2007
Activity is down again this week with just 55 new listings in the areas I cover (from 85, 92, 121 and 150 previously). I’m only aware of two new single family homes open this weekend, and both of those are in the rarefied $3.5 million++ range. This may be the beginning of SF’s typical fall slowdown.
As usual, after the jump, I’ve assembled a list of the new listings that will be open this weekend.
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October 18, 2007
DataQuick, an agency that tracks and reports on real estate activity, released its numbers for the Bay Area this afternoon. For the most part, things were not pretty.
5,014 homes were sold in the greater Bay Area last month, which is the slowest September on record since DataQuick started keeping track in 1988. This number is down 31% from August (7,299 homes sold), down 40% from September 2006 (8,374 homes sold) and way, way down from 2004, which was the best September on record (12,868 homes sold). Jumbo mortgages were also off, with 1,935 being funded in September (compared to 3,762 in August).
According to the DQNews:
“A lot of escrows just didn’t close in September because the buyers couldn’t get financing. Some of those sales might close this month or next, but many of the deals are going to be put on hold or die on the vine. Jumbo financing has become more available the last few weeks, but lenders are being more cautious than before, and the loans cost more,” said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
As usual, San Francisco remained relatively unscathed by the meltdown occurring all around it. Though SF sales were down 17.3% compared to September ’06, the other 8 counties comprising the Bay Area did much worse. Marin was next best with a 32.5% YOY decline and Contra Costa fared the worst, registering a whopping 48.7% YOY decline. SF (along with a handful of other counties) also managed to post a modest increase in median price compared to last September.
Anecdotally speaking, I have yet to see any evidence of a slowdown in the neighborhoods I’m currently shopping in SF and Oakland. As recently as this week, properties I’m interested in have received multiple offers and sold for significantly over their asking price.
If all these numbers and percentage marks haven’t given you a headache, there’s plenty more great data in the DQNews release, which can be found here.
And, for those of you more visually inclined, here’s a photo representing my take on the current state of the Bay Area housing market:
Image credit: tlindenbaum via Flikr
October 12, 2007
New listing activity was pretty much unchanged this week with 84 new listings in the areas I cover (up from 84 last week and down from 92, 121 and 150 previously). After the jump, you’ll find a list of the new listings that will be open this weekend.
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October 7, 2007
Below are a few of the more interesting looking new listings open this weekend:
Worth Checking Even if You Can’t Afford It Option: 1021 Hayes overlooking Alamo Square Park
4/3.5, 4,081 sf. $2,150,000, Open today 2-4
Notes: Queen Anne Victorian built in1891. I’m not normally a fan of old Victorians – they feel choppy, dark and claustrophobic to me, but with over 4,000 square feet of space, this one ought to defy that stereotype. Claims to have been extensively renovated and looks like it’s spotless and full of character. It’s hard to call a $2 million+ house a bargain, but this looks like one to me.
I Wonder Why There Are Only 4 Photos Option: 723 Bay St. in (on?) Russian Hill
3/2.5, 1,900 sf. $2,150,000, Open Today 1-4
Notes: I saw this picture earlier this week on SocketSite and it caught my eye again as I was skimming through this week’s new open houses (I’m apparently a sucker for a nice ceiling as well). The other photos look equally amazing, but I couldn’t help wondering why there were only four photos and no pictures of the exterior. Google Street View’s image of the building’s exterior fairly capably answered my question.
Obligatory Inexpensive Condo Option: 162 and 162-A 23rd Ave. in the Lake district
2/1.5 for $875,000 and a 1/1 in the backyard for $475,000 (or both for $1,350,000!), Open Today 2-4
Notes: both appear to have been tastefully remodeled (love the mosaic tiles) and seem reasonably priced.
October 6, 2007
It looks like there are a few new condo incentives to report, the most interesting of which is no mortgage, property tax or HOA payments for 3 months at 733 Front. The other incentives we’re currently aware of (with changes since the last update in bold) can be found after the jump.
In other new condo news:
the Californian on Rincon Hill has apparently been scrapped; and
the sales office at Esprit Park is officially open for business.
–Image: rendering of Esprit Park interior.
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