The October Market Wrap Up

Let’s take at look at the numbers for single-family homes and condos that sold between $100,000 and $5,000,000 in October and see how they compare to a year ago.

Washington, DC

• 582 homes sold, up from 414 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $380,000, down from $394,450 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 91 days, up from 77 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 93.36% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 92.67%

Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City & Falls Church City, VA

• 1,604 homes sold, up from 1,457 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $356,800, down from $359,000 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 58 days, down from 94 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 94.56% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 92.21%

Montgomery County

• 942 homes sold, up from 678 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $330,000, down from $370,000 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 80 days, down from 116 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 92.52% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 91.20%

Prince George’s County

• 710 homes sold, up from 408 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $210,000, down from $260,000 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 122 days, down from 136 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 89.37% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 88.00%

Greater Baltimore: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City & County, Carroll, Harford, Howard

• 2,219 homes sold, up from 1,631 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $235,000, down from $252,900 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 117 days, down from 125 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 91.09% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 90.52%

We pulled the numbers in this post from MRIS.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers county-level trends. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

Redfin Has Five Agents In The Top 3%

October was another great month for our DC-area agents. Of the 5,300+ buyers’ agents in the DC area who closed a deal in October, Taylor Connolly is number three and we have four agents in the top 3%:

When you work with Redfin, you’ll be working with some of the best agents in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.

We pulled these numbers from MRIS, the database for real estate transactions and listings for Baltimore-Washington, DC region, and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in October based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in October from our clients in the Baltimore-Washington, DC area:

• 46 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, down from 51 in September.
• 45 of those clients, or 98%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, up from 96% in September.

In these surveys, we ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.

The $8,000 Home-Buyer Tax Credit Has Been Extended & Expanded

Earlier today, President Obama signed new legislation extending the deadline for the home buyer tax credit into 2010 and expanding it to include current home owners who are looking to buy a primary residence.

The Basic Requirements

You qualify for the tax credit if the:

• Home you’re buying will be your primary residence
• Purchase price isn’t more than $800,000

This credit is not a loan; it’s yours, but keep in mind you have to live in your new home for three years. If you sell the home in less than three years, you’ll have to pay back the money.

What’s Changed?

With the new legislation, buyers have more time to find a home and more buyers are eligible for the tax credit:

• New deadline: To qualify, you need to be in contract with a seller by April 30th & close on the home by June 30th (The previous deadline was November 30, 2009).
• Not just for first-time buyers anymore: Home buyers who’ve owned and occupied a home for at least five consecutive years during the past eight years are eligible for a credit up to $6,500.
• Increased income limits: Individuals making less than $125,000 and couples making less than $225,000 are eligible (The limits used to be $75K & $150K).

First-time buyers are eligible for a credit up to $8,000 on homes purchased between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. Qualified homeowners can a credit up to $6,500 on homes purchased between November 7, 2009 and June 30, 2010.

Bonus Link

You can check out the full text of the bill. Scroll about halfway down to sections 11 & 12:

• Sec. 11. Extension and Modification of First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.
• Sec. 12. Provisions to Enhance the Administration of the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.

Market Update for September

Let’s take at look at the numbers for single-family homes and condos that sold between $100,000 and $5,000,000 in September in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region and see how they compare to a year ago.

Washington, DC

• 552 homes sold, up from 409 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $371,568, down from $389,900 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 94 days, up from 82 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 91.78% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 93.78%

Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City & Falls Church City, VA

• 1,684 homes sold, up from 1,650 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $375,000, up from $348,250 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 63 days, down from 93 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 94.67% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 92.56%

Montgomery County

• 859 homes sold, up from 768 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $330,000, down from $350,000 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 83 days, down from 101 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 91.50% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 91.31%

Prince George’s County

• 662 homes sold, up from 546 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $212,925, down from $266,000 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 133 days, down from 141 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 88.54% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 89.98%

Greater Baltimore: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City & County, Carroll, Harford, Howard

• 2,117 homes sold, up from 1,931 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $236,000, down from $255,000 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 116 days, down from 124 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 90.81% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 90.03%

We pulled the numbers in this post from MRIS.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers county-level trends. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

Case-Shiller: Summer Surge Benefits Middle Tier Most

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Starting this month, we will be basing all of the charts in this series of posts on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the DC area* as of August:

Sixteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between July and August. Only Cleveland, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Seattle marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at DC’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

Since March, the middle tier has increased nearly 5%, while the low and high tiers have only bumped up around 2%. This is a bit of a change from most other markets around the country, where the low tier has been spiking the most this summer.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

According to a Reuters story from earlier today, Robert Shiller has described the sudden spike seen in many markets this summer as potential “bubble territory.” I agree. As I have discussed on these pages in recent months, the sudden and simultaneous nature of this price uptick does not bear any marks of a return to fundamentals, but instead seems to be driven almost entirely by a mad dash for cheap loans (interest rates in the 5s) and free money ($8k tax credit).

I’m a little bit concerned that by interrupting the natural correction of the housing market, recent government intervention is setting us up for even more pain down the road. I hope I am wrong.

*[Case-Shiller defines Washington DC as the entire Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the District of Columbia and all or part of the following counties: Calvert MD, Charles MD, Frederick MD, Montgomery MD, Prince Georges MD, Alexandria City VA, Arlington VA, Clarke VA, Fairfax VA, Fairfax City VA, Falls Church City VA, Fauquier VA, Fredericksburg City VA, Loudoun VA, Manassas City VA, Manassas Park City VA, Prince William VA, Spotsylvania VA, Stafford VA, Warren VA, and Jefferson WV.]

Redfin Has Four Agents In The Top 2%

September was another great month for our DC-area agents. Of the 5,200+ buyers’ agents in the DC area who closed a deal in September, Taylor Connolly is number two and we have four agents in the top 2%:

When you work with Redfin, you’ll be working with some of the best agents in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.

We pulled these numbers from MRIS, the database for real estate transactions and listings for Baltimore-Washington, DC region, and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in August based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in September from our clients in the Baltimore-Washington, DC area:

• 51 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, down from 61 in August.
• 49 of those clients, or 96%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, up from 95% in August.

In these surveys, we ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.

Where Were the Biggest Discounts in August?

Let’s check in on our stats to find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the charts below, we have taken all sales data from last month in the greater DC area and sorted it by city.

Methodology
In order to maintain consistency with the automatically generated statistics posted to the Redfin neighborhood pages, we have slightly tweaked the way the statistics are compiled for this post series. First, we complied a list of every sale that took place in the month, calculating each sale’s sale-to-list ratio (based on the final list price). Next, we simply take an average of every individual sale’s sale-to-list ratio to calculate an entire area’s sale-to-list ratio. Any sales that came in with a sale-to-list ratio above 150% or below 50% are excluded from the calculation, and areas with fewer than twenty sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings. Interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:

The overall discount rate was lower than our last update, but since we tweaked the methodology slightly, unfortunately they’re not really comparable.

Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:

In the 75 areas we ranked, the median discount was 2.40%.

Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and hit the “FullSummary” sheet.

Of the 7,011 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 1,612 homes sold for 5% or more off the asking price, while 566 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.

Case-Shiller: Simultaneous Summer Surge Stretches On

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, plus seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – July data is released in September).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the DC area* as of July:

Seventeen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between June and July. Only Las Vegas, Seattle, and Detroit continued to mark seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

After first dropping into double-digit negative territory back in January 2008, year-over-year price drops inched back up into the single-digits in DC in July. But will the losses continue to subside once the summer high wears off?

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

I suppose this summer could be called the summer of the sudden surge or the summer of the massive desperate government intervention. Either way, the result has been increasing prices in most markets over the past few months. Potentially good news if you’re trying to sell your house, but not especially encouraging if you’re hoping to buy, but prices had not yet come down quite into your reasonable range yet. Whether the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit expires or not, I think this winter will be interesting.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart, the Great Summer Bounce of Aught-Nine:

It’s the best recovery that $700 billion plus $787 billion can buy!

*[Case-Shiller defines Washington DC as the entire Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the District of Columbia and all or part of the following counties: Calvert MD, Charles MD, Frederick MD, Montgomery MD, Prince Georges MD, Alexandria City VA, Arlington VA, Clarke VA, Fairfax VA, Fairfax City VA, Falls Church City VA, Fauquier VA, Fredericksburg City VA, Loudoun VA, Manassas City VA, Manassas Park City VA, Prince William VA, Spotsylvania VA, Stafford VA, Warren VA, and Jefferson WV.]

September City/Neighborhood Price Reductions

It’s been a while since we had a look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.

The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.

For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.

First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:

Of the 177 cities/towns we ranked in the DC area this month, 95 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. The median price-reduced ratio was 50.2%.

Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten neighborhoods for price reductions:

Of the 74 neighborhoods we ranked this month, 23 had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. The median price-reduced ratio was 44.9%.

Download the full spreadsheet to check where your neighborhood came in.

The Market Wrap-Up For August

Let’s take at look at the numbers for single-family homes and condos that sold between $100,000 and $5,000,000 in August in metro Washington, DC and see how they compare to a year ago.

Washington, DC

• 602 homes sold, up from 501 in August 2008
• The median sales price was $365,000, down from $395,000 in August 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 85 days, up from 80 days in August 2008
• On average, homes sold at 92.49% of the list price, in August 2008 it was 92.33%

Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City & Falls Church City, VA

• 1,813 homes sold, up from 1,812 in August 2008
• The median sales price was $395,000, up from $389,000 in August 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 63 days, down from 87 days in August 2008
• On average, homes sold at 94.65% of the list price, in August 2008 it was 92.88%

Montgomery County

• 967 homes sold, up from 787 in August 2008
• The median sales price was $355,000, down from $408,000 in August 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 85 days, down from 99 days in August 2008
• On average, homes sold at 91.41% of the list price, in August 2008 it was 91.22%

Prince George’s County

• 638 homes sold, up from 430 in August 2008
• The median sales price was $216,500, down from $280,000 in August 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 133 days, up from 132 days in August 2008
• On average, homes sold at 88.33% of the list price, in August 2008 it was 89.89%

Greater Baltimore: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City & County, Carroll, Harford, Howard

• 2,144 homes sold, up from 2,047 in August 2008
• The median sales price was $250,000, down from $275,000 in August 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 120 days, up from 115 days in August 2008
• On average, homes sold at 90.65% of the list price, in August 2008 it was 91.41%

We pulled the numbers in this post from MRIS.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers county-level trends. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

What Other People Said

Keith’s posts at DC Home and Condo Prices are always insightful and a great place for people looking for data-rich analyses of the market. Check out his preliminary analysis of the August numbers.

Check out Annys Shin’s first-hand account in the Washington Post of selling her Petworth rowhouse and buying in Silver Spring.

What trends did you see in August?