Case-Shiller: Seasonal Slide in Home Prices Begins in DC

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Washington area* as of October:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between September and October (vs. eighteen from August to September): Only Phoenix saw an increase. Wait, Phoenix? Yup, Phoenix. Atlanta fell the most in October (again), falling a whopping 5.0% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Washington’s middle and high tiers fell in October, but the low tier continued to gain. Month to month, the low tier was up 1.1%, the middle tier fell 0.2%, and the high tier decreased 0.5%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just four months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

Read the rest of this entry »

Should I Wait Until Spring to List My Home? – Washington Edition

Over on the national blog, we just posted another big analysis of hundreds of thousands of listings and sales. Here are the numbers for Washington (plus Arlington & Fairfax), where winter is still a winning time to list your home for a quick sale, a better chance of selling, and a better price:

Case-Shiller: DC Home Prices Continue to Buck National Trend

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Washington area* as of September:

Seventeen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between August and September (vs. eleven from July to August): Only Washington DC, New York, and Portland rose. Atlanta fell the most in September, falling a whopping 5.9% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Washington’s tiers rose in September, but the low tier definitely got the biggest gain. Month to month, the low tier was up 4.7%, the middle tier rose 1.5%, and the high tier increased 0.4%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just three months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now only three have avoided falling into the red.

Read the rest of this entry »

Trick-or-Treat-or-Buy-Our-House

Hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween!  We wanted to share this cute (sorry, but there’s no better word for it) idea from a couple of sellers in Baltimore. They printed a note about their home for sale on a small label and attached it to the Halloween treats they distributed.  We’ll know soon whether this marketing technique was successful!  Thanks to listing agent Lynn Ikle for sharing this great idea!

Case-Shiller: Summer Continues for Washington-Area Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Washington area* as of August:

Ten of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between July and August (vs. two from June to July): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Washington DC. saw the biggest increase this month, followed closely behind by Detroit and Chicago.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Washington’s tiers rose again in August. Month to month, the low tier was up 3.9%, the middle tier rose 2.5%, and the high tier increased 0.5%.

Here’s a new chart for you. In this one, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

The effects of 2009′s homebuyer tax credit are dramatically visible in this chart, as is the fairly strong spring we had this year, hitting 20 cities increasing for the first time since July 2005. However, the sudden drop-off of month-over-month gains in August’s data is interesting, since during a “normal” year we wouldn’t expect to see this many cities in the red until December or January. I think this indicates that there is still quite a bit of weakness in home prices.

Read the rest of this entry »

September Insider Report: Washington Sizzles, Baltimore Slips

Greetings, Redfinnians!

This month we rolled out a new and improved version of our monthly insider report. “But where is it,” you ask. Ahh, well this new report is available via email-only, and was sent out to a group of registered users who have saved searches or favorites in select neighborhoods.

We’ll be expanding the report to include more neighborhoods every month, so if you want to make sure you get it when it comes to your ‘hood, just make sure you’re signed up for our newsletters (check the “Redfin Announcements” box in your Account Settings), and save a favorite home or a search. That’s it, you’re signed up!

Here on the blog we will continue posting the “lite” version of our monthly report, including our Redfin Heat Index, the heat map, and the hottest / coldest neighborhoods for the foreseeable future. So, let’s get into it.

First up is our national Redfin Heat Index* ranking table at right. Washington maintained its position at the top of the list, while Baltimore fell from #2 in August all the way down to #12 in September. Dang.

Meanwhile, Long Island is still pulling up the rear with falling prices and a dramatic 11.1 months of supply. Yikes!

Next up, let’s have a look at an update to our interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code, based on September data. Note that we only calculate the Redfin Heat Index for zip codes with at least 20 sales in September 2011 and September 2010, and as we head into the winter that means more and more zip codes will be grey with “not enough data,” but you can still click them to see sale and listing stats for each zip code. If a zip code is missing from the map, there weren’t even five sales in that zip code in the month.

All righty, that’s it for this month. Stay tuned as our new and improved local Insider Report makes its way to your neighborhood.

As usual, you can download our comprehensive spreadsheets for Washington and Baltimore and dig into the data for yourself. Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * 7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

Sellers Are Feeling the Heat in August

Greetings Redfinnians!

Frustration is probably an understatement if you listed your home for sale back in the spring, and it still hasn’t sold. After all, interest rates and inventory are low, right? Shouldn’t there be multiple offers and quick settlements?

Not so fast, friends.

Yes, the lack of inventory did create a sellers’ market… but only for properties with the right price, location, and presentation. Unfortunately, homes that fit those three criteria have already sold, leaving many properties that have been on the market for several months, and a bunch of sellers who are already thinking about re-listing next year.

Inventory Shortage Increases as We Head into Fall

August inventory is down from July (about 4% – 12%), and down even more from a year ago. The District and its surrounding counties appear to be showing the biggest declines, especially Alexandria at -12.4%.

In June, inventory was down from May, about 2%-7%. August continued this trend, and we can only foresee a bigger jump next month. School has started and new potential sellers have already decided to wait until next year to list their homes.

“Sellers are contacting us and saying that they want to list their home, but would rather wait to put it on the market,” says DC Team Lead Brent Roberts. He adds, “This all adds up to a shortage of supply for those who truly are motivated to buy ASAP.”

So, should you list your home now, or later? The truth is, there are many factors to consider before listing in this market. Start off by looking at recent sales in your neighborhood. How quickly are they selling? Use their performance to gauge potential buyer interest in your area.

Sales Are Not So Bad, Not So Good

Fairfax City shows a whopping 19% jump in sales, with Arlington and Baltimore showing positive growth as well. Alexandria shows a big decrease since July, but it’s up from last year.

Still, while we have some growth in certain regions, the reality is that sales are down in most areas. It’s been a common theme all spring and summer: inventory is down, therefore sales are down.

Virginia SW Team Lead Jeremy Cunningham offers this look at his market:

“In Loudoun, Prince William and Western Fairfax County, there is a sudden noticeable softening of the market. Many buyers who waited through the summer for more listings to arrive have accepted the fact that those homes simply are not going to show up. In essence, those buyers have given up for 2011. Despite the record-low mortgage rates, many serious buyers became more and more frustrated as summer dragged on, and eventually had no choice but to concede to the listing drought. The end result is that listings are getting less attention and multiple-bid scenarios seem to be a thing of the past.”

The news is not all bad for sellers; there are still some die-hard buyers out there. But if you want to sell in the next couple of months, you’re going to need to get more aggressive about pricing. Leaves are not the only thing that fall in October!

With sales declining, savvy buyers hope to benefit from the potential “fall” in prices. Montgomery Agent Karen Parnes says: “Buyers have already done their homework and are trying to take advantage of the fall market, whether the house has been on the market for a while or is newly-isted.”

Price Drops in Metro Areas

Alexandria, Baltimore City and the District show the sharpest decline in prices, while the rest of the area remains steady.

Alexandria’s pricing continues to plummet. In May 2011, median price in Alexandria was $457,626, but it has dropped nearly $80,000 in a matter of months. However, buyers are still looking to purchase in Alexandria; plenty of Redfin clients are still touring and searching there.

The District, like Alexandria, has declined in inventory, sales and pricing since July. The fear of an unstable economy and stock market appears to have taken a toll on wary buyers. Still, the market is vibrant for properties that are priced correctly.

“We continue to see multiple offers for the best priced properties, and they’re going for 98-99% of list price, on average,” says Brent. “Some of the most popular properties go well above list price. Things continue to be tight and buyers in DC need to be patient; it may take several months to a year or more to get the perfect house”.

That’s the big picture. Want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood? Download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. To learn more about how we calculate these numbers, check out our methodology page. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

Best,
Marshall Park
Virginia Area Manager

Case-Shiller: Summer is Kind to Washington Home Prices

Before we get going with this month’s Case-Shiller post, I’d like to apologize for the lack of an update last month. Long story short, this particular duty slipped through the cracks while I was out on leave. We heard from a number of readers who were lamenting the missing post. Rest assured, we have heard you and it will not happen again!

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – July data is released in September).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Washington area* as of July:

Only two of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between June and July (vs. none from May to June): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Weirdly, Detroit saw the biggest increase, followed by Minneapolis.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Washington’s tiers saw a sizeable boost in July, with the low tier leading the pack. Month to month, the low tier was up 5.3%, the middle tier rose 2.9%, and the high tier increased 1.2%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Red-Hot Beltway (July 2011 Insider)

Greetings Redfinnians,

This summer the market has been pretty hot, but we’re starting to see signs of things cooling off for fall.

Very few high-quality, well-priced new listings are coming onto the market. When one finally does, it’s the same story every time; the buyers that are out there all descend at once and end up bidding against each other.

To take a deeper look at what’s going on, we decided to mix things up a bit with a sneak peek at the Redfin Heat Index (Beta)*.

For starters, we developed the table at right, which includes our heat ranking for every market where Redfin collects real-time sales data.

Of course, the fact that DC and the surrounding Beltway are red-hot when taken as a whole isn’t a surprise to anyone. You probably want to know what’s going on at the neighborhood level, right?

Right.

That’s why we crunched the numbers for the entire DC area and produced an interactive Redfin Heat Index map, broken down by zip code. Just click the image below to play with the map on our blog.

Washington DC Area Heat Map by Zip Code

(Note: the map above is broken in Internet Explorer 9 and Google is working on the issue. In the mean time, please use Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome to view the map.)

Prices are still falling across many areas of the DC area, and although buyers are scarce, listings are even more rare, which is why you’re seeing some warmth in the map above.

Redfin Agents Give Their Take on the Market

The Beltway is super hot, with flames of activity spreading north and south into Maryland and Virginia. Not surprisingly, the downtown DC area has seen price increases and tough competition. But are things starting to cool down? DC Redfin agent Tom Lewis gives his take: “The market has been relatively busy this summer, but as we move into August, things are appearing to taper off ever so slightly.”

“My listing client is giving it one more month,” says East Montgomery Redfin agent September Lundeen. “If it doesn’t sell, he’s going to rent it out. He’s been on the market since October 2010, steadily decreasing his price.”

“Despite incredibly low interest rates, properties appear to be sitting a bit longer,” says Montgomery Redfin coordinator Phil Gvinter. “One looming issue is the pending reduction of conforming loan limits from $729,750 down to $650,000, which may have a material impact on large parts of the market.”

That’s it for this month’s Insider Report. If you miss the trusty old data tables, don’t fret! You can still download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment on the online version of this report on our blog.

Best,
Taylor Connolly, Maryland Area Manager

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

Nine Redfin Agents Rank in the Top 20 DC Area Buyers Agents