Archive for July, 2009
July 28, 2009
It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, plus seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – May data is released in July).
Before we dig into the data, I’d like to make a brief mention of an excellent post over at the economics website Calculated Risk: A Few Comments on Housing Reports. Quoting from his post:
…the Case-Shiller report today really bothered me. To be more accurate, the reporting on the Case-Shiller report bothers me. As I mentioned earlier today, there is a strong seasonal component to house prices, and although the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller index was down (Case-Shiller was reported as up by the media) – I don’t think the seasonal factor accurately captures the recent swings in the NSA data.
Keep in mind that the Case-Shiller data that most of the media (including this blog) are reporting on is usually the raw index data. As CR mentioned, the housing market is a very seasonal beast, so it’s difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions from month-to-month changes, unless they are far outside the norm for that time of year. This is why we consistently report the year-to-year change in our summary.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the DC area* as of May:
May 2009
Month to Month: Up 1.3% (raw)
Month to Month Up 0.7% (seasonally adjusted)
Year to Year: Down 14.9%
Change from Peak: Down 32.5% in 36 months
The following chart shows the DC area HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the DC area HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (February 2004).
(All of the charts below are based on the non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller HPI data.)
DC hasn’t see any spring upticks since peaking in May 2006, so two months of increases is definitely worth noting.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare DC’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that in addition to being from a usually-strong time of year, these numbers represent home sales that closed during the frenzy of interest rates in the fours and the debut of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit. In my opinion, we won’t really know if home price declines are mostly over until we see the data from October / November. And that advice is worth exactly what you paid for it ;^)
*[Case-Shiller defines Washington DC as the entire Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the District of Columbia and all or part of the following counties: Calvert MD, Charles MD, Frederick MD, Montgomery MD, Prince Georges MD, Alexandria City VA, Arlington VA, Clarke VA, Fairfax VA, Fairfax City VA, Falls Church City VA, Fauquier VA, Fredericksburg City VA, Loudoun VA, Manassas City VA, Manassas Park City VA, Prince William VA, Spotsylvania VA, Stafford VA, Warren VA, and Jefferson WV.]
July 24, 2009
Let’s check in on our stats once again and find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the charts below, we have taken all sales data from last month in the greater DC area and sorted it by city/town. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any areas with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:
The overall discount rate for the greater DC area dipped slightly from May to June, moving from 3.3% to 3.1%.
Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:
Of the 101 areas we ranked, only five came in with an average sale price above the average list price.
Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and hit the “FullSummary” sheet.
Of the 7,537 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 582 homes (8%) sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 579 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.
July 21, 2009
Almost half of the homes our metro Washington, DC clients bid on in June had multiple offers. Our Washington, DC area agents presented 76 offers to listing agents and 37 of those, or 49%, were on homes with multiple offers, down from 61% in May.
“We’re seeing a lot of multiple offer situations whenever sellers are competitively pricing their homes,” says Taylor Connolly, one of our all-star DC-area agents. “Quality homes that are priced right are getting a lot of offers, especially in Montgomery County, Northern Virginia and Northwest DC.”
When bidding on a home with multiple offers, it’s critical to put your best foot forward. “Buyers need to make their first offer a strong one to show they’re serious from the start,” advises Taylor. “You might not get a chance to counter if you start too low – sellers will just ignore your bid.”
Marshall Park recently helped clients buy a home in Loudon County with multiple bids. The clients had bid and lost on a few homes with multiple offers prior to finding a home they loved. To make sure the seller knew they were serious buyers, they increased the earnest money, shortened the timelines, didn’t ask for closing costs and got the home.
For more numbers, download the spreadsheet with the data on what happened in June.
Where are you seeing homes for sale with multiple listings?
July 20, 2009
Our DC-area agents had a great month in June! Marshall Park and Taylor Connolly rank first and second in the metro Washington, DC region among buyers’ agents and all three of our agents rank in the top 1.1% of buyer’s agents with at least one deal in June.
*Fernando also closed two deals in downtown DC that were new construction and weren’t listed in MRIS. Including those two deals, Fernando’s totals for June are six deals totaling $3,346,800.
Redfin clients work with some of the most active and successful agents in the DC area. Marshall, Taylor and Fernando are experts in the in what’s happening in Metro DC real estate right now and they know what it takes to help our clients buy the homes they want.
We pulled these numbers from MRIS, the database for real estate transactions and listings for metro Washington, DC region, and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in June based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.
Our Clients Love Our Fanatical Service
We are so proud of our DC-area team. During our busiest time of the year, our clients are thrilled with Redfin’s service. We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in May from our clients in the DC area:
- 52 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, up from 27 in May.
- 50 of those clients, or 96%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, down from 100% in May.
In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.
For more numbers, download the spreadsheet with the data on what else happened in June.
