Case-Shiller: Effects of Tax Credit Appear to be Waning

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Keep in mind that all of the charts in this series of posts are based on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website (requires free registration). For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the DC area* as of September:

Eleven of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between August and September (down from sixteen in August). New York, Boston, Charlotte, Seattle, Dallas, Portland, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Cleveland all marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at DC’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

Unlike many other markets around the country, here in the DC area, the low tier actually fell while the high and mid tiers saw increases (though smaller than in recent months). Given that the tax credit and low interest rates are more directed at lower-priced homes, this trend is definitely unusual.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

With the tax credit having been extended until the spring, and pretty much all the benefit having been squeezed from low rates and tax giveaways, it seems likely that we will see some price deterioration in the next few months as we head through winter. Beyond that is anybody’s guess.

*[Case-Shiller defines Washington DC as the entire Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the District of Columbia and all or part of the following counties: Calvert MD, Charles MD, Frederick MD, Montgomery MD, Prince Georges MD, Alexandria City VA, Arlington VA, Clarke VA, Fairfax VA, Fairfax City VA, Falls Church City VA, Fauquier VA, Fredericksburg City VA, Loudoun VA, Manassas City VA, Manassas Park City VA, Prince William VA, Spotsylvania VA, Stafford VA, Warren VA, and Jefferson WV.]

The October Market Wrap Up

Let’s take at look at the numbers for single-family homes and condos that sold between $100,000 and $5,000,000 in October and see how they compare to a year ago.

Washington, DC

• 582 homes sold, up from 414 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $380,000, down from $394,450 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 91 days, up from 77 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 93.36% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 92.67%

Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City & Falls Church City, VA

• 1,604 homes sold, up from 1,457 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $356,800, down from $359,000 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 58 days, down from 94 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 94.56% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 92.21%

Montgomery County

• 942 homes sold, up from 678 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $330,000, down from $370,000 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 80 days, down from 116 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 92.52% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 91.20%

Prince George’s County

• 710 homes sold, up from 408 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $210,000, down from $260,000 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 122 days, down from 136 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 89.37% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 88.00%

Greater Baltimore: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City & County, Carroll, Harford, Howard

• 2,219 homes sold, up from 1,631 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $235,000, down from $252,900 in October 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 117 days, down from 125 days in October 2008
• On average, homes sold at 91.09% of the list price, in October 2008 it was 90.52%

We pulled the numbers in this post from MRIS.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers county-level trends. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

Redfin Has Five Agents In The Top 3%

October was another great month for our DC-area agents. Of the 5,300+ buyers’ agents in the DC area who closed a deal in October, Taylor Connolly is number three and we have four agents in the top 3%:

When you work with Redfin, you’ll be working with some of the best agents in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.

We pulled these numbers from MRIS, the database for real estate transactions and listings for Baltimore-Washington, DC region, and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in October based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in October from our clients in the Baltimore-Washington, DC area:

• 46 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, down from 51 in September.
• 45 of those clients, or 98%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, up from 96% in September.

In these surveys, we ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.

The $8,000 Home-Buyer Tax Credit Has Been Extended & Expanded

Earlier today, President Obama signed new legislation extending the deadline for the home buyer tax credit into 2010 and expanding it to include current home owners who are looking to buy a primary residence.

The Basic Requirements

You qualify for the tax credit if the:

• Home you’re buying will be your primary residence
• Purchase price isn’t more than $800,000

This credit is not a loan; it’s yours, but keep in mind you have to live in your new home for three years. If you sell the home in less than three years, you’ll have to pay back the money.

What’s Changed?

With the new legislation, buyers have more time to find a home and more buyers are eligible for the tax credit:

• New deadline: To qualify, you need to be in contract with a seller by April 30th & close on the home by June 30th (The previous deadline was November 30, 2009).
• Not just for first-time buyers anymore: Home buyers who’ve owned and occupied a home for at least five consecutive years during the past eight years are eligible for a credit up to $6,500.
• Increased income limits: Individuals making less than $125,000 and couples making less than $225,000 are eligible (The limits used to be $75K & $150K).

First-time buyers are eligible for a credit up to $8,000 on homes purchased between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. Qualified homeowners can a credit up to $6,500 on homes purchased between November 7, 2009 and June 30, 2010.

Bonus Link

You can check out the full text of the bill. Scroll about halfway down to sections 11 & 12:

• Sec. 11. Extension and Modification of First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.
• Sec. 12. Provisions to Enhance the Administration of the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.

Market Update for September

Let’s take at look at the numbers for single-family homes and condos that sold between $100,000 and $5,000,000 in September in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region and see how they compare to a year ago.

Washington, DC

• 552 homes sold, up from 409 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $371,568, down from $389,900 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 94 days, up from 82 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 91.78% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 93.78%

Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Arlington County, Alexandria City & Falls Church City, VA

• 1,684 homes sold, up from 1,650 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $375,000, up from $348,250 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 63 days, down from 93 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 94.67% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 92.56%

Montgomery County

• 859 homes sold, up from 768 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $330,000, down from $350,000 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 83 days, down from 101 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 91.50% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 91.31%

Prince George’s County

• 662 homes sold, up from 546 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $212,925, down from $266,000 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 133 days, down from 141 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 88.54% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 89.98%

Greater Baltimore: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City & County, Carroll, Harford, Howard

• 2,117 homes sold, up from 1,931 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $236,000, down from $255,000 in September 2008
• The average days on market for homes sold was 116 days, down from 124 days in September 2008
• On average, homes sold at 90.81% of the list price, in September 2008 it was 90.03%

We pulled the numbers in this post from MRIS.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers county-level trends. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.