Author: Lisa Taylor
Redfin Marketing Analyst
Recent posts
July 12, 2011
Redfin’s monthly Washington Metro Area real estate insider report draws from our proprietary database of information on homes for sale and that just sold, along with insight from our agents to get a sense of what’s going on in the market right now. If you’d like to receive the report via email, just sign up.
Greetings Redfinnians!
The DC market is still feeling the effects of low inventory. Buyers are getting antsy from the limited selection, and when new homes do pop up, everyone pounces at once. Sellers who have been on the market since Spring are frustrated and confused as to why their homes haven’t sold.
How Low Can We Go?
June inventory is mostly down from May (~2% to as much as 7%), and down quite a bit from a year ago.
| County |
Compared to May 2011 |
Compared to June 2010 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
| Alexandria |
-8.3% |
-12.5% |
| Arlington County |
-1.4% |
-12.2% |
| District of Columbia |
-4.0% |
-15.0% |
| Fairfax City |
+8.0% |
-7.8% |
| Fairfax County |
-0.5% |
-11.4% |
| Loudoun County |
+1.3% |
-7.3% |
| Montgomery County |
-2.0% |
-11.0% |
| Prince George’s County |
-6.9% |
-10.7% |
| Prince William County |
-6.7% |
-15.4% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
-0.4% |
-8.0% |
| Baltimore City |
-2.5% |
-13.4% |
| Baltimore County |
-2.0% |
-3.6% |
| Howard County |
-0.6% |
-5.4% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) for Sale on June 30th 2011
While the inventory is low, Redfin agents are seeing offers, as well as stronger motivation among buyers. With school starting in a few months and people preparing for vacations, buyers are starting to hunker down and take a more aggressive approach.
“You can see a general downturn, but some houses that have been on the market for weeks are suddenly receiving offers now,” says NE Virginia agent Rob Wittman. “Competition still exists, but not at the level of last month; I think people’s vacations are getting in the way. I expect one more rush of stiffer competition this summer, probably around mid-July.”
SW Virginia agent Kendell Walker sees a similar market: “A lot of military and government households are moving in and out of the area. People in general are figuring that this is a good time to sell, as buyers want to get settled before school starts. We had a lot of sellers inquire about selling their homes after June 1st. In fact, I had two listings in June that sold within three days, both over a weekend.”
In the District, the market is still active and competitive. DC agent Fernando Ferrufino observes: “The low inventory has created more desperation for those active buyers; as soon as they see a home that meets some-to-most of their criteria, they jump on it and bid aggressively. Experienced listing agents are pricing their listings properly, so that they sell briskly and may even attract multiple offers, which is not uncommon in DC.”
Sales Up MOM, Down YOY
Sales grew from May to June, but fell between 10% and 30% compared to June of last year, which was the final month of the tax credit.
| County |
Compared to May 2011 |
Compared to May 2011 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
Compared to June 2010 |
Compared to June 2010 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
-3.0% |
-3.0% |
-13.5% |
-13.5% |
| Arlington County |
+4.9% |
+4.9% |
-25.5% |
-25.5% |
| District of Columbia |
-1.1% |
-1.1% |
-16.4% |
-16.4% |
| Fairfax City |
+3.2% |
+3.2% |
-36.0% |
-36.0% |
| Fairfax County |
+9.5% |
+9.5% |
-17.9% |
-17.9% |
| Loudoun County |
+29.4% |
+29.4% |
-21.3% |
-21.3% |
| Montgomery County |
+10.7% |
+10.7% |
-26.2% |
-26.2% |
| Prince George’s County |
+2.5% |
+2.5% |
-29.9% |
-29.9% |
| Prince William County |
+8.8% |
+8.8% |
-20.2% |
-20.2% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
+6.4% |
+6.4% |
-18.6% |
-18.6% |
| Baltimore City |
-14.6% |
-14.6% |
-25.4% |
-25.4% |
| Baltimore County |
+6.0% |
+6.0% |
-24.0% |
-24.0% |
| Howard County |
+34.3% |
+34.3% |
-31.5% |
-31.5% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) That Sold in June 2011
Speaking of multiple buyers, many of our buyers were caught in multiple-offer situations in June. Even in a slow market, a property that shows well, is priced accordingly and sits in a desirable location is almost certain to have multiple bids.
In the District, those multiple bid-situations were the norm. “We’re still facing multiple offer situations in DC on close to 50% of the offers we submit for clients,” says Redfin DC Team Lead Brent Roberts.
DC agent Tom Lewis sees a very similar view, along with what may be an interesting strategic approach from listing agents: “We’re still seeing low inventory and abundant buyers. It also seems like listing agents are trying to push for multiple-offer situations by pricing properties low from the start.”
Kendell has seen similar pockets of frenzy in her area: “May was a bit of a lull, but as soon as June hit, the buyers were back and ready to go. With inventory so low and buyers targeting specific neighborhoods, good homes are getting jumped on quickly, and buyers are ready to get competitive with their offers.”
While sales are increasing, Fernando thinks we’re going to see a lull during the later summer months: “May and June felt like the busy months of yesteryear, but July is feeling sluggish. This will make for a slow August, but that’s not uncommon for late summer.”
Prices Creeping Up
Pricing in most areas are up slightly (~2% to 5%) both month-to-month and year-over-year.
| County |
Median Price* in June 2011 |
Median Price Change since May 2011 |
Median Price Change since June 2010 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
$457,626 |
-2.1% |
+7.7% |
| Arlington County |
$541,002 |
-1.6% |
+4.7% |
| District of Columbia |
$484,980 |
+7.7% |
+11.3% |
| Fairfax City |
$370,984 |
-1.1% |
-1.6% |
| Fairfax County |
$440,816 |
+5.4% |
+3.5% |
| Loudoun County |
$441,163 |
+7.6% |
+6.8% |
| Montgomery County |
$385,461 |
+6.5% |
+0.8% |
| Prince George’s County |
$170,126 |
+7.6% |
-11.7% |
| Prince William County |
$291,787 |
+7.4% |
+3.1% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
$291,389 |
-0.8% |
-7.9% |
| Baltimore City |
$87,137 |
-2.0% |
-22.9% |
| Baltimore County |
$204,937 |
+0.4% |
-10.9% |
| Howard County |
$385,228 |
+7.8% |
-2.0% |
Change in Median Price of Homes That Sold in June 2011
*Median Price represents a weighted average of the individual median prices for single-family homes, condos, and townhouses. See our spreadsheet for individual breakdowns.
Inventory is low, but the high demand is helping prices creep up; low inventory plus high demand equals multiple bids, and when multiple bids are prevalent, prices goes up. Buyers are following suit, increasing offer amounts and writing in much more aggressive terms.
“In neighborhoods like Capitol Hill or Mt. Pleasant, where there are a lot of buyers waiting for nice 3 or 4-bedroom row houses to come along, we see a lot of bidding wars,” says Brent. “There’s such a lack of supply and so much pent-up demand. The imbalance is definitely pushing prices up.”
Fernando agrees, and suggests an aggressive approach for buyers writing offers. He sees more and more purchase offers “removing financing, appraisal and inspection contingencies, and also including high earnest deposits (5% or higher) to appeal to the seller and beat out other buyers.”
That’s the big picture. Want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood? Download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. To learn more about how we calculate these numbers, check out our methodology page. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.
Best,
Marshall Park
Virginia Area Manager
June 15, 2011
Redfin’s monthly real estate insider report draws from our proprietary database of information on homes for sale and that just sold, along with insight from our agents to get a sense of what’s going on in the market right now. If you’d like to receive the report via email, just sign up.
Greetings Redfinnians!
Spring buyers have gobbled up all of the decent inventory, and we’re searching for a few good sellers to get things moving again. Since inventory is so limited, quality homes sell quickly and for a good price, which is actually pushing sale prices up compared to last month, as well as last year.
Inventory (Or a Lack Thereof)
The limited inventory is causing frustration for buyers throughout the metro area. We’re still seeing the largest shortages in counties that surround the District, such as Fairfax and Montgomery.
Why the drop in inventory? Part of the story may be the fact that we’re comparing apples to oranges; last year the federal tax credit brought out sellers who were hoping to capitalize on eager buyers, who were in turn lured into buying by the promise of all that tasty government dough. In short, we borrowed today’s buyers to purchase last year’s homes.
Which leads to our second factor contributing to low inventory; sellers don’t think they can get enough by selling now, when the market is cool. Rather than sell for a less-than-optimal price, many sellers have decided to sit on the sidelines and wait for brighter days. No buyers leads to no sellers leads to no buyers…someone call Joseph Heller.
| County |
Compared to April 2011 |
Compared to May 2010 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
| Alexandria |
0.0% |
-4.2% |
| Arlington County |
-1.5% |
-12.8% |
| District of Columbia |
-1.0% |
-9.7% |
| Fairfax City |
+4.7% |
-19.1% |
| Fairfax County |
-1.1% |
-10.7% |
| Loudoun County |
-1.2% |
-7.7% |
| Montgomery County |
-1.1% |
-8.6% |
| Prince George’s County |
-4.3% |
-6.2% |
| Prince William County |
-3.7% |
-11.2% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
+1.8% |
-3.9% |
| Baltimore City |
+0.4% |
-10.9% |
| Baltimore County |
+2.7% |
+1.1% |
| Howard County |
+2.1% |
-0.1% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) for Sale on May 31st 2011
Capping off the irony is the fact that buyers who do find good homes also find themselves in the middle of heated bidding wars against other buyers. Everyone’s fighting for the same scraps.
“I had one client that was looking in the Chevy Chase area and lost out on some houses due to an extremely competitive market,” recalls Redfin Montgomery agent Tom Lewis. “Driving the competition was a severe drought in supply. In some instances, people were waiving inspection, appraisal and financing contingencies. It felt like a tiny, isolated pocket of the 2006 market.”
Is it any wonder that buyers are going cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs?
Sales Pace? More Like Snail’s Pace, Amiright?
When it comes to hangovers, the Wolf Pack’s got nothing on our sales numbers. Again, last year’s tax credit deserves a big chunk o’ blame for this; people who would have bought this year already got their fill last year.
Some areas are bucking the trend; Fairfax City is up quite a bit from last month, and is showing a milder slide from this time last year, compared to the stomach-churning drop we’re seeing in other areas. The City of Baltimore is also looking relatively healthy. But still, ouch.
| County |
Compared to Apr. 2011 |
Compared to Apr. 2011 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
Compared to May 2010 |
Compared to May 2010 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
+1.4% |
-3.2% |
-16.4% |
-20.2% |
| Arlington County |
-1.2% |
-5.7% |
-26.0% |
-29.4% |
| District of Columbia |
+3.0% |
-1.7% |
-20.2% |
-23.8% |
| Fairfax City |
+36.4% |
+30.2% |
-11.8% |
-15.8% |
| Fairfax County |
+6.3% |
+1.5% |
-21.9% |
-25.5% |
| Loudoun County |
-3.1% |
-7.6% |
-31.7% |
-34.8% |
| Montgomery County |
+1.4% |
-3.2% |
-24.4% |
-27.8% |
| Prince George’s County |
-4.6% |
-9.0% |
-25.2% |
-28.6% |
| Prince William County |
+4.2% |
-0.6% |
-19.8% |
-23.5% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
-7.4% |
-11.6% |
-12.7% |
-16.7% |
| Baltimore City |
+10.3% |
+5.3% |
+3.2% |
-1.5% |
| Baltimore County |
+4.3% |
-0.4% |
-25.9% |
-29.3% |
| Howard County |
-4.1% |
-8.5% |
-34.3% |
-37.3% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) That Sold in May 2011
“Most tours in our area continue to be people who are new to the market,” says Virginia NE coordinator Anna Schwoerer. “But the sense of urgency we saw last year has pretty much evaporated. Buyers who were on the fence seem to be taking a break until the right opportunity arises.”
But again, when that opportunity does arise, buyers are ready to pounce. Despite the overall anemic market, a good home still sells for a good price.
Prices Are…Up?
Compared to last year and last month, prices are going up in many areas. But keep in mind that this increase is based on an overall smaller number of sold homes. They say a rising tide lifts all boats, but we don’t have very many boats in the water right now.
And to further strain the metaphor, not every boat in the water is getting lifted anyway. The District of Columbia is seeing a decent jump in prices, but Prince George’s County is down a little from last month and a lot from last year. Baltimore City is up a bunch from last month, but down a bunch from last year.
Struggling areas are still affected by high numbers of short sales and foreclosures, which are acting as a drag on prices.
| County |
Median Price* in May 2011 |
Median Price Change since April 2011 |
Median Price Change since May 2010 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
$465,103 |
+9.2% |
+11.3% |
| Arlington County |
$541,988 |
+11.6% |
+13.4% |
| District of Columbia |
$459,339 |
+14.6% |
+17.3% |
| Fairfax City |
$380,250 |
+0.1% |
+9.2% |
| Fairfax County |
$422,999 |
+4.6% |
+5.4% |
| Loudoun County |
$407,050 |
+4.7% |
+2.4% |
| Montgomery County |
$361,687 |
+3.1% |
+0.7% |
| Prince George’s County |
$156,122 |
-0.3% |
-24.3% |
| Prince William County |
$271,386 |
+1.2% |
+1.8% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
$296,271 |
+8.0% |
+5.5% |
| Baltimore City |
$88,101 |
+16.5% |
-21.8% |
| Baltimore County |
$203,177 |
+4.0% |
-6.4% |
| Howard County |
$357,349 |
-5.1% |
-3.8% |
Change in Median Price of Homes That Sold in May 2011
*Median Price represents a weighted average of the individual median prices for single-family homes, condos, and townhouses. See our spreadsheet for individual breakdowns.
That’s the big picture. Want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood? Download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. To learn more about how we calculate these numbers, check out our methodology page. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.
Best,
Taylor Connolly
Maryland Area Manager
May 12, 2011
Redfin’s monthly real estate insider report draws from our proprietary database of information on homes for sale and that just sold, along with insight from our agents to get a sense of what’s going on in the market right now. If you’d like to receive the report via email, just sign up.
Greetings Redfinnians! Welcome to our April Insider Report for the DC area.
Buyers are still actively looking, but this spring market is more tortoise than hare, with buyers making slow, deliberate, informed decisions. Inventory is still looking thin compared to this time last year, and buyers aren’t pulling the trigger unless they find their dream home at the right price.
The story for inventory? Better than last month, but way below last year. Let’s dig in…
Inventory Up Since March, Down From 2010
Compared to April 2010, inventory is down dramatically in areas of Alexandria and Fairfax City & County. It just shows how much effect the home buyer’s tax credit had on the market last year.
| County |
Compared to March 2011 |
Compared to April 2010 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
| Alexandria |
+13.5% |
-10.8% |
| Arlington County |
+15.1% |
-13.8% |
| District of Columbia |
+5.4% |
-9.2% |
| Fairfax City |
+26.6% |
-29.6% |
| Fairfax County |
+13.3% |
-14.6% |
| Loudoun County |
+8.5% |
-6.5% |
| Montgomery County |
+8.0% |
-10.8% |
| Prince George’s County |
-5.1% |
-4.0% |
| Prince William County |
+1.2% |
-12.8% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
+5.7% |
-5.5% |
| Baltimore City |
-3.1% |
-13.0% |
| Baltimore County |
+2.9% |
-1.3% |
| Howard County |
+14.7% |
+1.9% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) for Sale on April 30th 2011
But spring is bringing stirrings of life to the market. “I can tell you that compared to March, I do see inventory increasing,” says Maryland agent Russell Chandler. In fact, inventory is up 10% overall since last month, which isn’t surprising; many sellers wait until after the spring holidays to list their homes. Stale properties may struggle to attract attention, but new listings are toured quickly. If the home shows well and the price is right, multiple offers come a-knockin’.
While the month-over-month increase in inventory is good for buyers, sellers who stubbornly refuse to adjust to the new realities of the market are not feeling the love. Says Phil Gvinter, Coordinator for Maryland: “Inventory remains low. Some of the extremely stale inventory (120+ days) has cleared out or has been delisted. New inventory is trickling in; sales are definitely down from last year’s tax credit expiration mania, but seem to be holding steady over the last six weeks.”
Closed Sales Slide
Despite the increase in inventory, the number of closed sales slid about 10% since March, and dropped 25% compared to closed sales last year. Buyers appear to be more cautious. They’re holding out on making a big commitment until they feel completely comfortable.
| County |
Compared to Mar. 2011 |
Compared to Mar. 2011 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
Compared to April 2010 |
Compared to April 2010 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
-16.5% |
-8.5% |
-27.4% |
-23.9% |
| Arlington County |
+5.1% |
+15.1% |
-24.6% |
-21.0% |
| District of Columbia |
-9.3% |
-0.6% |
-25.1% |
-21.6% |
| Fairfax City |
-40.5% |
-34.9% |
-12.0% |
-7.8% |
| Fairfax County |
-13.8% |
-5.6% |
-35.1% |
-32.1% |
| Loudoun County |
+13.8% |
+24.6% |
-25.2% |
-21.6% |
| Montgomery County |
+2.4% |
+12.1% |
-25.8% |
-22.3% |
| Prince George’s County |
-24.3% |
-17.1% |
-33.9% |
-30.7% |
| Prince William County |
-10.5% |
-2.0% |
-35.2% |
-32.1% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
+2.3% |
+12.1% |
-16.5% |
-12.5% |
| Baltimore City |
-31.2% |
-24.6% |
-33.8% |
-30.6% |
| Baltimore County |
-13.5% |
-5.3% |
-31.1% |
-27.8% |
| Howard County |
-1.9% |
+7.4% |
-22.9% |
-19.3% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) That Sold in April 2011
Fairfax Redfin agent Brian Herndon has seen first-hand that buyers can afford to be picky: “One of my listings has had over 50 showings, but only one offer. All the feedback from agents has been that the house shows well and is priced fine — it’s ‘just not quite right’ for their buyers.”
Last year, a well-priced home wouldn’t have made it past 20 showings without several offers. But the days of listing a home and immediately getting multiple bids are over. The properties that do get snapped up are priced right, show well, and boast a desirable location. A seller’s property missing even one of these criteria may linger. And linger.
Pricing? It’s All About Geography
Though the median price is up 13% from last month, there are still some areas where prices are decreasing. In Maryland, Montgomery County is still ticking up while Prince George’s County and Baltimore have declined year-over-year and month-over-month. For the most part, DC and Virginia have seen price increases; Fairfax City saw prices up since last month, but still down compared to April 2010.
| County |
Median Price* in April 2011 |
Median Price Change since Mar. 2011 |
Median Price Change since April 2010 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
$442,169 |
+10.7% |
+8.4% |
| Arlington County |
$486,611 |
+0.6% |
+6.1% |
| District of Columbia |
$412,799 |
+15.4% |
+5.9% |
| Fairfax City |
$379,732 |
+17.0% |
-15.4% |
| Fairfax County |
$413,430 |
+8.2% |
+4.2% |
| Loudoun County |
$389,790 |
+0.2% |
+6.9% |
| Montgomery County |
$349,895 |
+3.7% |
-0.6% |
| Prince George’s County |
$156,720 |
-1.7% |
-20.3% |
| Prince William County |
$275,920 |
+11.9% |
+7.0% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
$279,314 |
+0.2% |
-2.2% |
| Baltimore City |
$84,214 |
+70.0% |
-18.4% |
| Baltimore County |
$197,423 |
+0.6% |
-8.7% |
| Howard County |
$384,204 |
+16.3% |
+3.8% |
Change in Median Price of Homes That Sold in April 2011
*Median Price represents a weighted average of the individual median prices for single-family homes, condos, and townhouses. See our spreadsheet for individual breakdowns.
But numbers don’t tell the whole story. The market seems to be a fickle beast this spring. Jeremy Cunningham, Redfin’s SW Virginia Team Lead which includes Loudoun County, describes the chaos: “It’s a strange market. Very strange. Stats and trends don’t seem to mean much — it’s all about finding the right house at the right time, period.”
But numbers don’t tell the whole story. The market seems to be a fickle beast this spring. Jeremy Cunningham, Redfin’s SW Virginia Team Lead which includes Loudoun County, describes the chaos: “It’s a strange market. Very strange. Stats and trends don’t seem to mean much — it’s all about finding the right house at the right time, period.”
Buyers are focused on finding what they want, and only what they want. Last year’s tax credit seemed to trigger a feeding frenzy. This year? Not so much.
That’s the big picture. Want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood? Download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. To learn more about how we calculate these numbers, check out our methodology page. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.
January 19, 2011
Redfin’s monthly Washington & Baltimore Metro Area real estate insider report draws from our proprietary database of information on homes for sale and that just sold, along with insight from our agents to get a sense of what’s going on in the market right now. If you’d like to receive the report via email, just sign up.
Greetings Redfinnians!
As usual, sales activity slowed in the Washington Metro Area as we headed into the New Year, but this time around it looks like more than seasonality was at play. Inventory was down as expected, but we saw prices inching up, indicating that buyers are out there.
We’ll dive into the numbers in a jiff, but first the latest Redfin news: as promised, we launched Redfin in Dallas, with Denver up in the coming week. We now offer our home-buyers an online Deal Room, to guide them through the whole escrow process. And we let you to log-in via Facebook, which will help us personalize your real estate search. Plenty more good stuff is coming up, so stay tuned!
Now, onto the numbers…
Few Homes for Sale
Inventory was down in most areas of the Washington region compared to November by an average of 16%. Brent Roberts, a Redfin agent in DC said, “Sellers who don’t have to sell are choosing to rent their homes or delay moving until they feel the market has recovered. Because of their reluctance to sell, there has been a lack of available homes that are priced appropriately.” Virginia sellers are undergoing a similar mindset. Scott Sabey, a Redfin agent in the Falls Church area said, “Two potential clients I spoke with recently are comfortable waiting until March to put their homes on the market. With the tax credit last year, they wouldn’t have dared to wait that long.”
| County |
Compared to November 2010 |
Compared to December 2009 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
| Alexandria |
-14.6% |
+16.1% |
| Arlington County |
-19.3% |
-10.2% |
| District of Columbia |
-14.0% |
-3.2% |
| Fairfax City County |
-32.2% |
-22.4% |
| Fairfax County |
-17.0% |
-4.7% |
| Loudoun County |
-15.3% |
+0.2% |
| Montgomery County |
-14.8% |
-1.2% |
| Prince George’s County |
-2.1% |
+2.0% |
| Prince William County |
-13.3% |
-0.2% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
-6.8% |
-1.2% |
| Baltimore City County |
-2.9% |
+2.4% |
| Baltimore County |
-6.3% |
+11.6% |
| Howard County |
-10.5% |
+8.2% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) for Sale on December 31st 2010
Loudoun and Prince William Counties are much the same according to Jeremy Cunningham, a Redfin agent active in those regions. Jeremy said, “My clients are holding their cards until the economy turns around and are generally in a wait and see mode. We’re not seeing the number of sellers that need to sell due to relocation since our employment remains stronger than many areas of the country.”
In Baltimore, the situation is pretty different. Inventory dropped, but only by an average of 7%. September Lundeen, a Redfin agent that covers the Baltimore region said, “Some of my clients want to beat the competition by putting their homes on the market now before the spring onslaught.”
Where are all the Buyers?
Sales continue to be slower than we experienced in December of 2009 in all areas except Fairfax City and Alexandria where percentage changes in these relatively small areas tend to fluctuate dramatically.
| County |
Compared to Nov. 2010 |
Compared to Nov. 2010 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
Compared to December 2009 |
Compared to December 2009 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
-6.0% |
-10.1% |
+37.3% |
+37.3% |
| Arlington County |
+10.0% |
+5.3% |
-11.2% |
-11.2% |
| District of Columbia |
-16.8% |
-20.4% |
-28.2% |
-28.2% |
| Fairfax City County |
+13.6% |
+8.7% |
+31.6% |
+31.6% |
| Fairfax County |
-3.8% |
-8.0% |
-14.3% |
-14.3% |
| Loudoun County |
-1.8% |
-6.1% |
-23.1% |
-23.1% |
| Montgomery County |
-7.8% |
-11.9% |
-19.4% |
-19.4% |
| Prince George’s County |
-10.9% |
-14.8% |
-26.9% |
-26.9% |
| Prince William County |
-8.9% |
-12.9% |
-22.4% |
-22.4% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
-30.3% |
-33.3% |
-38.0% |
-38.0% |
| Baltimore City County |
-25.2% |
-28.4% |
-28.5% |
-28.5% |
| Baltimore County |
-0.5% |
-4.9% |
-12.0% |
-12.0% |
| Howard County |
-5.9% |
-10.0% |
-23.4% |
-23.4% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) That Sold in December 2010
With limited inventory, buyers just don’t have many choices. “For weeks, I’ve had a handful of clients anxious to buy, but because inventory was stale they were forced to wait on the sidelines,” reports Tom Lewis, a Redfin agent in Upper Northwest and Montgomery County.
“Buyers are clearly in a holding pattern right now,” said Brian Herndon, a Redfin agent in Arlington and Alexandria. Low inventory appears to be the leading factor as buyers are beginning to recognize some of the values in the market and in some cases are beginning to feel better about the economy. Buyers are wondering when sellers will finally get off the dime, accept reality and list their home. Jeremy Cunningham said, “I’ve talked to many buyers who just don’t like their options. Last year, we would have been able to show them twenty homes that suited their criteria and fell within in the $400,000 to $600,000 price range. Now it’s down to eight to ten. The choices are just not out there.”
Ready Buyers Pushing up Prices
With the exception of Prince George’s and Baltimore City and County, prices are continuing to increase. Inventory in Prince George’s and Baltimore remains high and is causing the downward pressure on prices. “Until the foreclosures and short sales are worked through in a measurable way, we won’t see any price stabilization for at least a year, if not longer,” said September.
In DC, Fairfax and Montgomery Counties, the heart of the Washington metro area, prices for several months have increased. But we need a reality-check for buyers. “Buyers can’t just look at the price of a comparable home that sold 6 months ago and expect the seller to accept a lower or even the same price. They’re getting out-bid.” Jeremy explains, “There’s a trickle-up effect. As opposed to large price bumps of $10,000 in a neighborhood that we saw in the boom time, we’re now seeing modest increases in the $2,000 to $4,000 range. Final prices are increasing, albeit with smaller gains.”
| County |
Median Price* in December 2010 |
Median Price Change since Nov. 2010 |
Median Price Change since December 2009 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
$393,451 |
-6.6% |
-1.4% |
| Arlington County |
$547,452 |
+4.3% |
+8.1% |
| District of Columbia |
$462,000 |
+5.0% |
+23.6% |
| Fairfax City County |
$411,476 |
+43.2% |
+23.7% |
| Fairfax County |
$404,030 |
+3.3% |
+6.9% |
| Loudoun County |
$391,740 |
-2.0% |
+5.9% |
| Montgomery County |
$373,881 |
-0.5% |
+11.3% |
| Prince George’s County |
$171,318 |
-9.3% |
-22.4% |
| Prince William County |
$260,831 |
-2.8% |
+1.0% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
$303,131 |
+8.7% |
+2.9% |
| Baltimore City County |
$76,204 |
-0.8% |
-22.7% |
| Baltimore County |
$204,806 |
-6.9% |
-9.9% |
| Howard County |
$391,843 |
+10.9% |
+7.6% |
Change in Median Price of Homes That Sold in December 2010
*Median Price represents a weighted average of the individual median prices for single-family homes, condos, and townhouses. See our spreadsheet for individual breakdowns.
Brent attempts to sum up the market dynamics. “We are consistently experiencing across all DC neighborhoods that sellers are not psychologically ready to take big price hits without letting a lot of time on the market pass. For buyers this means that it’s very rare for a seller to accept an offer more than 6 to 8% below the current list price. Often the best strategy for overpriced homes is to let some time pass without an offer so the seller realizes they are overpriced and drops the list price to within a reasonable range.”
Brian agrees, “When a good deal hits the market, buyers jump and multiple offers abound.” It’s still a game of cat and mouse, often without a clear winner or loser and a lot of uncertainty as to what is truly a “good deal.”
If you want even more data including specific cities, town and neighborhoods, be sure to download our master spreadsheet and dive into all the data you ever wanted. To learn more about how we calculate these numbers, check out our methodology page. If you have any questions or feedback about our report, just leave a comment below.
Best,
Karen Krupsaw
Redfin Washington & Baltimore Metro Market Manager
December 17, 2010
Redfin’s monthly Washington & Baltimore Metro Area real estate insider report draws from our proprietary database of information on homes for sale and that just sold, along with insight from our agents to get a sense of what’s going on in the market right now. If you’d like to receive the report via email, just sign up.
Happy Holidays Redfinnians!
Here at Redfin, we just launched a big upgrade to the website this week that allows folks to log-in using their Facebook account. We also give our own customers an online Deal Room for tracking the escrow process and — tell your friends! — we opened the Dallas market. Plus, we upgraded our iPhone app to include the ability to run saved searches. For all the detail on the market, read on!
Inventory is down and sales are slow. The one bright spot is prices with many areas showing stabilization and price increases anywhere between 1% and 17%.
All areas have experienced a decline in inventory–one that is typical of this time of year. Compared to last year, however, inventory is mostly higher. But remember, at this time last year, the marketplace was energized by the first-time home buyer’s tax credit and its November expiration. The large increase in inventory in Alexandria is due to more condominiums on the market than this time last year and can fluctuate dramatically if a large hi-rise is put on the market.
Good Houses are Hard to Find
| County |
Compared to October 2010 |
Compared to November 2009 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
| Alexandria |
-11.3% |
+22.8% |
| Arlington County |
-14.7% |
-0.5% |
| District of Columbia |
-6.2% |
+3.9% |
| Fairfax City County |
-9.2% |
-1.3% |
| Fairfax County |
-15.6% |
+0.8% |
| Loudoun County |
-12.8% |
+9.3% |
| Montgomery County |
-11.3% |
+4.7% |
| Prince George’s County |
-3.3% |
-3.3% |
| Prince William County |
-10.2% |
+4.9% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
-7.8% |
-1.8% |
| Baltimore City County |
-2.0% |
-0.5% |
| Baltimore County |
-5.8% |
+11.3% |
| Howard County |
-9.2% |
+9.6% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) for Sale on November 30th 2010
With fewer homes for sale, consumers get excited when a well-priced listing comes on the market. Kendell Walker, an agent in Prince William and Fairfax says, “I have serious buyers with closing deadlines and they’re just not finding what they want. Then when they find it, it’s a competitive situation. They’re very frustrated.” Similarly in Montgomery County, Nick Chaconas says, “You can’t wait three days when a house that is priced right comes on the market. One of my buyers was very disappointed that it was gone by the time they made their decision.”
Season Puts Skids on Sales
Sales are dramatically slower than this time last year, mostly due to the tax credit which inflated sales last year. But, sales have declined since October in all areas except Alexandria, a trend that is indicative of winter.
In Baltimore, the standoff between buyer and seller is even more weighted to the buyer’s side with inventory higher in Baltimore and Howard Counties relative to this time last year. “Buyers are on the sidelines waiting to pull the trigger,” says Taylor Connolly, an agent in the Baltimore region. “Sales have slowed although prices are inching up or staying flat. I think this is very significant if we see similar numbers in December,” adds Taylor. The next few months will let us know if this a fluke or a bona fide trend.
| County |
Compared to Oct. 2010 |
Compared to Oct. 2010 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
Compared to November 2009 |
Compared to November 2009 Adjusted for # Weekdays |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
+8.4% |
+3.5% |
-13.0% |
-17.0% |
| Arlington County |
-18.6% |
-22.3% |
-42.8% |
-45.4% |
| District of Columbia |
-21.2% |
-24.7% |
-38.6% |
-41.4% |
| Fairfax City County |
-4.5% |
-8.9% |
-38.2% |
-41.0% |
| Fairfax County |
-12.8% |
-16.8% |
-34.4% |
-37.4% |
| Loudoun County |
-11.4% |
-15.5% |
-30.0% |
-33.2% |
| Montgomery County |
-16.4% |
-20.2% |
-32.4% |
-35.5% |
| Prince George’s County |
-32.6% |
-35.6% |
-44.8% |
-47.3% |
| Prince William County |
-11.5% |
-15.5% |
-44.2% |
-46.8% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
-28.9% |
-32.1% |
-40.3% |
-43.0% |
| Baltimore City County |
-22.4% |
-25.9% |
-17.1% |
-20.8% |
| Baltimore County |
-15.2% |
-19.0% |
-47.2% |
-49.6% |
| Howard County |
-21.2% |
-24.8% |
-43.4% |
-46.0% |
Change in # of Homes (SFH, condos, townhouses) That Sold in November 2010
A Bright Spot in Prices
Prices continue to stabilize or increase in all areas except Anne Arundel and Baltimore City. The closer in areas including DC, Montgomery and Fairfax Counties are all experiencing substantial price increases.
In the inner core regions of DC, Alexandria and close-in Montgomery, price stability and low inventory have shifted the tide on well priced homes to the seller’s advantage. “We’re still seeing very competitive scenarios,” reports Fernando Ferrufino, an agent in DC. “However, in the suburbs, it’s a well-matched battle with sellers pricing their homes 5% above their expected sales price and buyers still making very low offers.” Kendell Walker sees clearly that, “there are some serious buyers out there and when the house is priced right, they’re ready to pounce.”
| County |
Median Price* in November 2010 |
Median Price Change since Oct. 2010 |
Median Price Change since November 2009 |
| Washington Area |
|
|
|
| Alexandria |
$429,820 |
+4.8% |
+8.0% |
| Arlington County |
$518,197 |
+2.2% |
+11.8% |
| District of Columbia |
$469,370 |
+1.2% |
+21.9% |
| Fairfax City County |
$394,500 |
+10.3% |
+21.1% |
| Fairfax County |
$406,758 |
+6.1% |
+10.7% |
| Loudoun County |
$412,974 |
+9.0% |
+14.5% |
| Montgomery County |
$392,606 |
+17.6% |
+18.5% |
| Prince George’s County |
$185,713 |
-7.1% |
-14.3% |
| Prince William County |
$271,700 |
+4.9% |
+11.0% |
| Baltimore Area |
|
|
|
| Anne Arundel County |
$289,491 |
-7.0% |
-1.4% |
| Baltimore City County |
$79,026 |
-6.5% |
-29.8% |
| Baltimore County |
$228,599 |
+4.8% |
+2.0% |
| Howard County |
$368,260 |
-1.7% |
+5.3% |
Change in Median Price of Homes That Sold in November 2010
*Median Price represents a weighted average of the individual median prices for single-family homes, condos, and townhouses. See our spreadsheet for individual breakdowns.
This increase in price has not yet trickled down to the conscious of most buyers.
Even when sellers acquiesce on their price, buyers are looking for more. “At home inspections, buyers continue to test the seller’s resolve,” says Bryan Waters, an agent in Maryland. “They’re jabbing away, nickel and diming for home repairs, seemingly with amnesia about what they did to the seller on price negotiation. And buyers aren’t afraid to walk away,” says Nick Chaconas. “For a small amount, they’ll cut off their nose to spite their face.” But with the dramatic decline in sales in most areas since last year, it’s no wonder the buyers feel they’re in the driver’s seat.
Bryan has noticed that the recent uptick in interest rates has created urgency for some buyers. “Recently the increase in rates affected the qualification of one of my buyers, causing him to back out of the contract. But when the seller heard, he reduced his price to our original offer price and the sale moved forward,” says Bryan.
Maybe next month, we’ll see a fairer fight between buyers and sellers but I wouldn’t expect any big hugs and kisses this holiday season.
That’s it for the last Washington Metro Area report of 2010! Want to dig into the raw data? Just download our spreadsheet. Questions or comments? Just post ‘em below! Thanks as always for your Redfin support, and happy solstice!
Best,
Karen Krupsaw
Redfin Washington & Baltimore Metro Market Manager
May 21, 2010
Ready to sell your home? Unsure about where to start, or how to pick the right price in this market?
Redfin is holding a free home selling seminar in Rockville, MD on Tuesday, June 29th from 7:45 – 9:30 p.m to answer all your questions. Our Montgomery County team lead Nick Chaconas and DC area market manager Karen Krupsaw will be discussing the issues every home seller should know about, including:
- Preparing your home for showings
- Tips for effective staging
- Pricing your home effectively
- Negotiation strategies
- Working with inspections & understanding contracts
- Fees and paperwork
- Closing the deal
We have a short presentation prepared, but mostly we want to answer your questions and discuss the home selling topics that interest you.
We’ll also have plenty of free food and drinks. Hope to see you there!
RSVP for our free home selling seminar on June 29th.
May 5, 2010
Four Redfin Baltimore-DC-area agents finished in the top 10 out of all buyers agents in the DC area in the first three months of the year.
We pulled these numbers from MRIS, the database for real estate transactions and listings for Baltimore-Washington, DC region, and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in January, February, and March based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.
| Rank |
Agent |
Brokerage |
# of Deals |
Total Sales |
Customer Rating
(3-month average) |
| 1 |
Debbie Dogrul |
Long & Foster |
29 |
$12,302,247 |
not available |
| 2 |
Adam Shpritz |
Long & Foster |
29 |
$1,355,745 |
not available |
| 3 |
Craig Wachter |
Passport Realty |
28 |
$1,248,531 |
not available |
| 4 |
Leonardo Pareja |
Keller Williams |
23 |
$2,135,400 |
not available |
| 5 |
Marshall Park |
Redfin |
18 |
$10,373,500 |
4.8 stars |
| 6 |
Taylor Connolly |
Redfin |
17 |
$7,878,000 |
4.2 stars |
| 7 |
Faith Rosselle |
Rosselle Realty |
16 |
$3,981,900 |
not available |
| 8 |
Dianna Nardella |
Redfin |
14 |
$6,997,900 |
4.8 stars |
| 9 |
Thomas Buerger |
RE/Max Allegiance |
14 |
$5,476,875 |
not available |
| 10 |
Brent Roberts |
Redfin |
13 |
$5,908,500 |
4.8 |
Four more of our Baltimore-Washington, DC area agents closed deals in the first three months of the year:
When you work with Redfin, you get great customer service while working with some of the most successful and active agents in the region.
Most agents spend around 80% of their time finding new clients, but Redfin agents don’t need to prospect since folks come to us on Redfin.com. As a result, Redfin agents can spend all their time serving clients: answering questions, hosting home tours, writing and negotiating offers, and listing homes. Redfin agents are experts in today’s market because they spend more of their time in the market.
Our Clients Love Our Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in the first three months of the year from our clients in the Baltimore-Washington, DC area:
- 179 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online.
- 175 of those clients, or 98%, would recommend Redfin to a friend.
In these surveys, we ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend. To learn more about how we survey our clients and calculate the customer ratings, check out our FAQ on agent reviews.
February 9, 2010
Redfin’s DC team is hosting a happy hour at the Eola from 5:30 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. on Thursday, February 25th. We’ll talk about what’s happening in the DC-area real estate market, share some tips on how to find a bargain, and give some insight into negotiating in this market.
Come have a drink on us, talk local real estate and meet a few of our DC agents. For planning purposes, please let us know if you can make it, but if you’re in the neighborhood feel free to just stop by.
Hope to see you there!
If you’re in the Maryland area, we also invite you to our free home buying class in Rockville on February 18th for local pricing guidance and to meet Redfin’s Maryland team.
January 26, 2010
December was another great month for our DC-area agents!
Of the 4,900+ buyers’ agents in the Baltimore-DC region who closed at least one deal, Marshall Park is #3.
| Rank |
Agent |
Brokerage |
# of Deals |
Total Sales |
Customer Rating
(3-month average) |
| 1 |
Debbie Dogrul |
Long & Foster |
11 |
$4528,996 |
not available |
| 2 |
Cynthia Schneider |
Long & Foster |
11 |
$3,922,026 |
not available |
| 3 |
Marshall Park |
Redfin |
9 |
$6,092,900 |
4.4 stars |
| 4 |
Vicki Nellis |
RE/MAX Allegiance |
8 |
$2,945,900 |
not available |
| 5 |
Andre Scott |
Haven Realty Centers LLC |
8 |
$971,929 |
not available |
| 6 |
Leonardo Pareja |
Keller Williams Realty |
8 |
$508,900 |
not available |
| 7 |
Gregg Hughes |
Brookfield Management |
7 |
$3,399,592 |
not available |
| 8 |
Paul Sliwka |
Coldwell Banker |
7 |
$1,721,000 |
not available |
| 9 |
George Saab |
Saab Realtors |
7 |
$1,641,150 |
not available |
| 10 |
Nathaniel Tate |
RE/MAX Allegiance |
7 |
$692,800 |
not available |
Eight more of our Baltimore-Washington, DC area agents closed deals in December:
| Rank |
Agent |
Brokerage |
# of Deals |
Total Sales |
Customer Rating
(3-month average) |
| 31 |
Taylor Connolly |
Redfin |
4 |
$2,145,000 |
4.3 stars |
| 37 |
Fernando Ferrufino |
Redfin |
4 |
$1,843,900 |
4.7 stars |
| 156 |
Dianna Nardella |
Redfin |
3 |
$945,000 |
4.9 stars |
| 301 |
Brent Roberts |
Redfin |
2 |
$1,320,000 |
4.7 stars |
| 319 |
Brian Herndon |
Redfin |
2 |
$1,194,988 |
4.6 stars |
| 1089 |
Michael Chung* |
Redfin |
1 |
$845,700 |
not available |
| 2753 |
Kendell Walker* |
Redfin |
1 |
$280,000 |
not available |
| 3167 |
September Lundeen |
Redfin |
1 |
$239,900 |
4.3 stars |
*Michael Chung and Kendell Walker’s site profiles are under construction.
When you work with Redfin, you get great customer service while working with some of the best agents in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.
We pulled these numbers from MRIS, the database for real estate transactions and listings for Baltimore-Washington, DC region, and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in December based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.
Our Clients Love Our Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in December from our clients in the Baltimore-Washington, DC area:
- 41 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online.
- 39 of those clients, or 95%, would recommend Redfin to a friend.
In these surveys, we ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend. To learn more about how we survey our clients and calculate the customer ratings, check out our FAQ on agent reviews.
August 3, 2009
As lending standards tighten, home sellers in the DC area are asking prospective buyers to disclose more information about their financial status as part of their initial offer on a home. The Washington Post published an article this past weekend on how buyers who provide the sellers with more financial information upfront may have a better chance at getting their offer accepted.
Redfin agent Fernando Ferrufino’s client Fiona Renalds was interviewed for the Post article. Though it has always been common in DC and Maryland for buyers to fill out Financial Information Sheets with their offer on a home, Fiona felt uncomfortable disclosing more private financial information like her bank statement. Fernando helped her offer a compromise. Along with the Financial Information Sheet and her pre-approval letter, she ended up providing a bank statement, but blacked out her account number and only showed that she had the funds to cover her earnest money deposit and closing costs. Fernando explains that “when we were preparing our offer, I informed Fiona that the Financial Information Sheet is optional but that most sellers in DC & MD ask for it and that it could weigh heavily in how they respond or even consider our offer. I went on to advise her that she can provide only the info that she is comfortable disclosing and that some clients in the past have provided just their income, job title and contact info.”
Since 49% of our DC area offers in June experienced multiple bids, it’s important for buyers in competitive situations to put together the “cleanest” offer possible—this can mean disclosing more financial information to ensure the sellers that the deal won’t fall through due to financing problems. Fernando says that he’s “of the mindset that if the seller sees how financially capable the buyer is, then it can work to our benefit in demonstrating our buying strength.” However, this doesn’t mean you have to bare all. Karen Krupsaw, DC area market manager, notes that we advise “our clients to provide as much information as they feel comfortable disclosing and often we do question the need when they are providing a current and accurate bank approval letter.”
Have any of you been asked to provide more financial information than you feel is necessary when making an offer?